The contest between Ironi Tiberias and Hapoel Katamon is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 39 % for Ironi, 31 % for a draw and 31 % for Hapoel to win. The average goal tally sits at 2.3, so a 2-goal game is most likely, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 14.4 % chance. Ironi’s home form shows they average 1.46 goals scored and 1.46 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Hapoel’s away record is 0.73 scored and 0.64 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Under 6.5 (99.0 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5 %), Under 5.5 (96.8 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.1 %), Over 19.5 fouls (93.1 %), Under 4.5 (91.1 %) and Away under 2.5 goals (90.2 %). Ironi’s recent five-game winning streak contrasts with Hapoel’s two-game losing run, adding to the intrigue.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ironi Tiberias win
39.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon win
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ironi Tiberias
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.53
1.40
1.40
1.33
1.67
vs Stronger (4)
2.00
2.00
3.00
0.00
1.67
2.67
vs Similar (26)
1.27
1.46
1.29
1.50
1.25
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Katamon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Katamon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.30
1.00
1.36
0.94
1.25
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
2.29
1.00
2.75
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (23)
0.96
1.00
1.00
0.80
0.92
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ironi Tiberias) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.4%
Under 1.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.5%
Under 2.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.4%
Under 3.5
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.9%
No
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.7%
1-0
11.5%
0-1
9.3%
2-1
8.2%
2-0
8.0%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
5.5%
Ironi Tiberias goals ↓
Hapoel Katamon goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.3%
5.5%
1.9%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
6.8%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.0%
8.2%
4.2%
1.4%
0.4%
3
3.3%
3.4%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ironi Tiberias goals (down), columns = Hapoel Katamon goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.19
Beitar Jerusalem
2.11
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.80
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.77
Maccabi Haifa
1.53
Maccabi Netanya
1.45
Ironi Tiberias
1.33
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.25
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.21
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.11
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.11
Bnei Sakhnin
1.03
Hapoel Haifa
1.03
Hapoel Katamon
0.94
Ironi Tiberias is 0.39 points better than Hapoel Katamon in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.19
Beitar Jerusalem
2.17
Maccabi Tel Aviv
2.06
Maccabi Haifa
1.83
Maccabi Netanya
1.79
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.57
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.52
Ironi Tiberias
1.36
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.36
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.33
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.20
Hapoel Haifa
1.18
Bnei Sakhnin
0.85
Hapoel Katamon
0.79
Ironi Tiberias is 0.58 goals better than Hapoel Katamon in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 0.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.00
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.06
Beitar Jerusalem
1.11
Hapoel Katamon
1.30
Maccabi Haifa
1.31
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.31
Bnei Sakhnin
1.48
Hapoel Haifa
1.55
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.58
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.61
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.62
Ironi Tiberias
1.70
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.83
Maccabi Netanya
1.91
Ironi Tiberias is 0.39 goals worse than Hapoel Katamon in terms of goals conceded per game (1.70 vs 1.30).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hapoel Beer Sheva
60%
Beitar Jerusalem
57%
Maccabi Haifa
54%
Maccabi Tel Aviv
53%
Maccabi Netanya
50%
Hapoel Tel Aviv
47%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
47%
Hapoel Haifa
43%
Bnei Sakhnin
39%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ironi Tiberias
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Hapoel Katamon
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Ironi Tiberias
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (43)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Hapoel Katamon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Katamon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (11)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (39)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Ironi Tiberias) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bnei Sakhnin
9.5
Hapoel Beer Sheva
9.2
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
8.9
Hapoel Haifa
8.8
Maccabi Petah Tikva
8.8
Maccabi Tel Aviv
8.7
Hapoel Tel Aviv
8.6
Maccabi Netanya
8.6
Beitar Jerusalem
8.4
Maccabi Haifa
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maccabi Netanya
6.1
Beitar Jerusalem
5.6
Hapoel Tel Aviv
5.5
Hapoel Beer Sheva
5.4
Hapoel Haifa
5.3
Maccabi Haifa
5.2
Maccabi Tel Aviv
5.1
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
4.7
Bnei Sakhnin
4.7
Maccabi Petah Tikva
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Maccabi Tel Aviv
29.5
Beitar Jerusalem
29.1
Hapoel Beer Sheva
28.0
Maccabi Haifa
27.3
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
26.8
Hapoel Tel Aviv
26.6
Hapoel Haifa
26.1
Maccabi Netanya
25.4
Maccabi Petah Tikva
24.8
Bnei Sakhnin
24.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
36.5%
Under 9.5
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
77.4%
Under 3.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
86.3%
Under 21.5
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ironi Tiberias or Draw
70.8%
Avg Implied -
40%
31%
29%
covers Ironi Tiberias + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias or Hapoel Katamon
68.9%
Avg Implied -
40%
31%
29%
covers Ironi Tiberias + Hapoel Katamon
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hapoel Katamon
60.2%
Avg Implied -
40%
31%
29%
covers Draw + Hapoel Katamon
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 0.5
Over
71.0%
Under
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 1.5
Over
35.1%
Under
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 2.5
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 3.5
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 0.5
Over
64.2%
Under
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 1.5
Over
27.4%
Under
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 2.5
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ironi Tiberias, so a minus line means Ironi Tiberias give that many goals of a start and Hapoel Katamon receive them. At -1, Ironi Tiberias must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ironi Tiberias win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ironi Tiberias)
Ironi Tiberias -2
6.2%
Draw -2
11.9%
Hapoel Katamon +2
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ironi Tiberias)
Ironi Tiberias -1
18.1%
Draw -1
21.6%
Hapoel Katamon +1
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ironi Tiberias)
Ironi Tiberias +1
70.8%
Draw +1
17.7%
Hapoel Katamon -1
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ironi Tiberias)
Ironi Tiberias +2
88.5%
Draw +2
8.2%
Hapoel Katamon -2
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ironi Tiberias
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.47
0.60
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.69
0.50
0.64
0.58
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Katamon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Katamon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.43
0.64
0.38
0.50
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.00
0.75
1.50
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (23)
0.30
0.43
0.30
0.30
0.31
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ironi Tiberias) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ironi Tiberias
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.73
0.93
0.80
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
0.50
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.77
0.79
0.86
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Katamon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Katamon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.57
0.71
0.56
0.75
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.29
0.25
1.25
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.57
0.70
0.50
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ironi Tiberias) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Katamon over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (29)
€35m
MH (33)
€27m
HBS (26)
€20m
HTA (27)
€18m
BJ (28)
€17m
MN (24)
€11m
IKS (22)
€7m
MPT (25)
€6m
HK (21)
€6m
HPT (22)
€6m
HRG (26)
€5m
BS (20)
€5m
IT (24)
€5m
HH (18)
€4m
Ironi Tiberias and Hapoel Katamon have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (12)
€13m
HTA (13)
€11m
HBS (13)
€10m
BJ (11)
€9m
MH (11)
€7m
MN (5)
€3m
MPT (11)
€3m
IKS (8)
€3m
IT (9)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (6)
€2m
BS (6)
€2m
HH (6)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
Ironi Tiberias and Hapoel Katamon have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MH (9)
€10m
MTA (6)
€9m
HBS (3)
€5m
MN (8)
€3m
BJ (5)
€3m
HTA (4)
€2m
HK (5)
€1m
HPT (5)
€1m
IKS (3)
€1m
BS (6)
€1m
HRG (6)
€1m
MPT (4)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
HH (3)
€1m
Ironi Tiberias and Hapoel Katamon have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (11)
€13m
MH (13)
€10m
BJ (12)
€5m
MN (11)
€5m
HBS (10)
€5m
HTA (10)
€5m
HK (11)
€3m
IKS (11)
€2m
HH (9)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (11)
€2m
BS (8)
€2m
MPT (10)
€2m
IT (10)
€2m
Ironi Tiberias's defence is €1m less valuable than Hapoel Katamon's (€2m vs €3m).
Israel: Ligat Ha'al 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Ligat Ha'al stats & trends →