Ironi Tiberias are favoured to win, with a 43% chance of triumph, a 28% draw probability and a 29% chance for Ironi Kiryat Shmona. The model expects 2.7 goals on average, most likely a single-goal total of 2 with a 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with 13.4% probability. Ironi Tiberias, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.54 goals scored and 1.54 conceded. Ironi Kiryat Shmona, on the road against a comparable side, average 1.64 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.7%), Under 5.5 (94.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.2%), Home +2 handicap (87.6%) and Under 4.5 (86.8%). Ironi Tiberias have struggled recently, losing their last five matches and dropping 0-2 to Kiryat Shmona, while Kiryat Shmona come off a win, beating Tiberias 2-0. The match is set to be a tight contest, with the home side’s defensive solidity and the visitors’ offensive edge shaping the outcome.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Ironi Tiberias, failed to deliver as the away side clinched a 0-1 victory, extending their recent win streak. The model had tipped a home win with a 43% probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away win. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.4%, Under 6.5 at 98.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.7%, Under 5.5 at 94.6%, Home under 3.5 goals at 93.7%, Away under 2.5 goals at 88.2%, Home +2 handicap at 87.6%, and Under 4.5 at 86.8%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ironi Tiberias win✗ Miss
42.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona win✓ Hit
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ironi Tiberias
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.47
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.53
vs Stronger (4)
1.75
1.25
2.00
0.50
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.35
1.50
1.54
1.54
1.15
1.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ironi Kiryat Shmona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.60
1.62
1.38
1.57
1.86
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
2.14
1.25
1.25
1.33
3.33
vs Similar (23)
1.70
1.43
1.75
1.42
1.64
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ironi Tiberias) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.8%
Under 2.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.9%
Under 3.5
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.9%
No
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
9.0%
0-0
8.2%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
7.2%
0-1 ✓
7.0%
2-2
5.4%
Ironi Tiberias goals ↓
Ironi Kiryat Shmona goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
7.0%
4.9%
1.9%
0.6%
1
9.1%
13%
7.2%
2.9%
0.8%
2
7.6%
9.0%
5.4%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.8%
4.5%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.4%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ironi Tiberias goals (down), columns = Ironi Kiryat Shmona goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Tel Aviv
3.00
Beitar Jerusalem
3.00
Hapoel Tel Aviv
2.00
Maccabi Netanya
2.00
Hapoel Katamon
1.80
Hapoel Haifa
1.80
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.32
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.20
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.20
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.16
Bnei Sakhnin
1.00
Ironi Tiberias
0.80
Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.00
Maccabi Haifa
0.00
Ironi Tiberias is 0.40 points worse than Ironi Kiryat Shmona in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Beitar Jerusalem
3.00
Maccabi Tel Aviv
2.00
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.80
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.67
Hapoel Katamon
1.60
Maccabi Netanya
1.60
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.26
Bnei Sakhnin
1.20
Ironi Tiberias
1.20
Hapoel Haifa
1.20
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.11
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.80
Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.00
Maccabi Haifa
0.00
Ironi Tiberias is 0.40 goals better than Ironi Kiryat Shmona in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beitar Jerusalem
0.33
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.00
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.00
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.00
Hapoel Katamon
1.20
Maccabi Netanya
1.40
Ironi Tiberias
1.40
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.56
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.60
Bnei Sakhnin
1.60
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.77
Hapoel Haifa
1.80
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.00
Maccabi Haifa
2.00
Ironi Tiberias is 0.40 goals worse than Ironi Kiryat Shmona in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ironi Tiberias or Draw✗ Miss
70.8%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers Ironi Tiberias + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias or Ironi Kiryat Shmona✓ Hit
71.9%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers Ironi Tiberias + Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona✓ Hit
57.3%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers Draw + Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
77.2%
Under
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
43.5%
Under
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.6%
Under
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.5%
Under
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.2%
Under
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ironi Tiberias, so a minus line means Ironi Tiberias give that many goals of a start and Ironi Kiryat Shmona receive them. At -1, Ironi Tiberias must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ironi Tiberias win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Ironi Kiryat Shmona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.83
0.75
0.69
0.79
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.29
1.00
0.75
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.70
0.67
0.67
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ironi Tiberias) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ironi Tiberias
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
1.07
0.60
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
0.25
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.69
0.92
0.69
0.62
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Ironi Kiryat Shmona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
0.88
0.69
0.79
0.86
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.86
0.25
0.50
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (23)
1.00
0.74
1.08
0.75
0.91
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ironi Tiberias) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ironi Kiryat Shmona · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Adrián Ugarriza52%
Mor Siman Tov25%
Yair Mordechai23%
Jwan Al Halabi17%
Ariel Shirdatzki14%
Mohamad Abu Rumi12%
Cristian Martínez10%
Wale Musa Alli6%
Aviv Avraham6%
Ovadia Dervish5%
Nemanja Ljubisavljević0%
Anthony Limbombe0%
Fernando Pacheco0%
Yaw Ackah0%
Daniel Tenenbaum0%
Itzik Sholmyster0%
Shay Ben David0%
Ofir Benbenishti0%
Ido Vaier0%
Liel Deri0%
Sekou Tidiany Bangoura0%
Bilal Shaheen0%
Yoav Karadi0%
Harel Goldenberg0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Shay Ben David43%
Bilal Shaheen43%
Aviv Avraham39%
Sekou Tidiany Bangoura33%
Mohamad Abu Rumi25%
Nemanja Ljubisavljević22%
Adrián Ugarriza19%
Yair Mordechai18%
Anthony Limbombe17%
Fernando Pacheco17%
Harel Goldenberg17%
Ovadia Dervish15%
Ofir Benbenishti13%
Mor Siman Tov12%
Cristian Martínez10%
Ariel Shirdatzki9%
Itzik Sholmyster8%
Wale Musa Alli6%
Daniel Tenenbaum5%
Yaw Ackah0%
Ido Vaier0%
Liel Deri0%
Jwan Al Halabi0%
Yoav Karadi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ariel Shirdatzki18%
Yair Mordechai14%
Mohamad Abu Rumi12%
Nemanja Ljubisavljević11%
Ido Vaier11%
Adrián Ugarriza10%
Shay Ben David10%
Jwan Al Halabi8%
Ofir Benbenishti7%
Aviv Avraham6%
Ovadia Dervish5%
Anthony Limbombe0%
Fernando Pacheco0%
Cristian Martínez0%
Wale Musa Alli0%
Yaw Ackah0%
Daniel Tenenbaum0%
Itzik Sholmyster0%
Liel Deri0%
Mor Siman Tov0%
Sekou Tidiany Bangoura0%
Bilal Shaheen0%
Yoav Karadi0%
Harel Goldenberg0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Adrián Ugarriza48%
Yair Mordechai32%
Mohamad Abu Rumi19%
Ariel Shirdatzki14%
Sekou Tidiany Bangoura11%
Jwan Al Halabi8%
Nemanja Ljubisavljević0%
Anthony Limbombe0%
Fernando Pacheco0%
Cristian Martínez0%
Wale Musa Alli0%
Yaw Ackah0%
Daniel Tenenbaum0%
Itzik Sholmyster0%
Shay Ben David0%
Ofir Benbenishti0%
Ido Vaier0%
Ovadia Dervish0%
Aviv Avraham0%
Liel Deri0%
Mor Siman Tov0%
Bilal Shaheen0%
Yoav Karadi0%
Harel Goldenberg0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (29)
€35m
MH (33)
€27m
HBS (26)
€20m
HTA (27)
€18m
BJ (28)
€17m
MN (24)
€11m
IKS (22)
€7m
MPT (25)
€6m
HK (21)
€6m
HPT (22)
€6m
HRG (26)
€5m
BS (20)
€5m
IT (24)
€5m
HH (18)
€4m
Ironi Tiberias's squad is €1m less valuable than Ironi Kiryat Shmona's (€5m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (12)
€13m
HTA (13)
€11m
HBS (13)
€10m
BJ (11)
€9m
MH (11)
€7m
MN (5)
€3m
MPT (11)
€3m
IKS (8)
€3m
IT (9)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (6)
€2m
BS (6)
€2m
HH (6)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
Ironi Tiberias and Ironi Kiryat Shmona have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MH (9)
€10m
MTA (6)
€9m
HBS (3)
€5m
MN (8)
€3m
BJ (5)
€3m
HTA (4)
€2m
HK (5)
€1m
HPT (5)
€1m
IKS (3)
€1m
BS (6)
€1m
HRG (6)
€1m
MPT (4)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
HH (3)
€1m
Ironi Tiberias and Ironi Kiryat Shmona have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (11)
€13m
MH (13)
€10m
BJ (12)
€5m
MN (11)
€5m
HBS (10)
€5m
HTA (10)
€5m
HK (11)
€3m
IKS (11)
€2m
HH (9)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (11)
€2m
BS (8)
€2m
MPT (10)
€2m
IT (10)
€2m
Ironi Tiberias and Ironi Kiryat Shmona have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Israel: Ligat Ha'al 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Ligat Ha'al stats & trends →
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Maccabi Tel Aviv
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Maccabi Netanya
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Maccabi Haifa
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Hapoel Haifa
Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Beitar Jerusalem
Hapoel Katamon