Ironi Tiberias are tipped to win, with a 48% chance of taking the match home, 28% for a draw and 24% for Maccabi Petah Tikva to prevail. The model expects 2.5 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.5% probability. Ironi Tiberias, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 1.33 goals scored and 1.25 conceded; Maccabi Petah Tikva, on the road, average 1.0 scored and 1.75 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 91.5%, Over 2.5 cards at 86.9%, Under 11.5 corners at 83.5%, Over 21.5 fouls at 82.9%, Under 3.5 at 75.4% (hit), Under 10.5 corners at 74.6%, Over 1.5 at 72.8% (miss) and Over 3.5 cards at 72.4%. Ironi Tiberias have recently struggled after a defeat, while Maccabi Petah Tikva come off a four-game winning streak.
Results analysis
In a surprising turn, the pre-match favourite, Ironi Tiberias, failed to secure the win, ending the game in a 0-0 draw. The model had picked a home win with a 48% probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 0-0 matched the actual result of a draw, extending Ironi Tiberias’ recent form of a single win amid four losses, while Maccabi Petah Tikva continued a four-game winning streak. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 75.4% chance, whereas its Over 1.5 pick missed, despite a 72.8% probability. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 carried only a 13.5% chance, and the predicted total of 2 goals was not achieved.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ironi Tiberias win✗ Miss
47.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva win✗ Miss
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ironi Tiberias
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.37
1.20
1.27
0.60
1.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.80
0.67
1.33
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (25)
0.96
1.28
1.33
1.25
0.62
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Petah Tikva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.50
1.13
1.27
0.93
1.73
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.40
1.50
3.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (25)
1.04
1.32
1.08
0.92
1.00
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ironi Tiberias) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.8%
Under 1.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.1%
Under 2.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.6%
Under 3.5
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.6%
No
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
11.0%
0-0 ✓
9.3%
2-1
9.3%
2-0
9.3%
0-1
6.9%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
4.7%
Ironi Tiberias goals ↓
Maccabi Petah Tikva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
6.9%
4.1%
1.4%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
6.1%
2.1%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.3%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.7%
4.7%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.8%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ironi Tiberias goals (down), columns = Maccabi Petah Tikva goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.22
Maccabi Tel Aviv
2.17
Maccabi Haifa
1.69
Beitar Jerusalem
1.50
Hapoel Haifa
1.44
Hapoel Katamon
1.33
Maccabi Netanya
1.25
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.24
Bnei Sakhnin
1.15
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.12
Ashdod
1.06
Ironi Tiberias
1.06
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.00
Hapoel Hadera
0.82
Ironi Tiberias is 0.06 points better than Maccabi Petah Tikva in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maccabi Tel Aviv
2.33
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.08
Maccabi Haifa
1.86
Beitar Jerusalem
1.61
Ashdod
1.45
Hapoel Katamon
1.42
Hapoel Haifa
1.42
Maccabi Netanya
1.42
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.09
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.97
Hapoel Hadera
0.94
Maccabi Petah Tikva
0.94
Ironi Tiberias
0.85
Bnei Sakhnin
0.82
Ironi Tiberias is 0.09 goals worse than Maccabi Petah Tikva in terms of goals scored per game (0.85 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.78
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.03
Bnei Sakhnin
1.27
Hapoel Katamon
1.27
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.30
Ironi Tiberias
1.36
Hapoel Haifa
1.39
Maccabi Haifa
1.47
Beitar Jerusalem
1.50
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.52
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.58
Maccabi Netanya
1.61
Ashdod
1.67
Hapoel Hadera
1.73
Ironi Tiberias is 0.15 goals better than Maccabi Petah Tikva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.52).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Beitar Jerusalem
61%
Hapoel Beer Sheva
59%
Maccabi Haifa
57%
Maccabi Tel Aviv
55%
Bnei Sakhnin
49%
Maccabi Netanya
47%
Hapoel Haifa
46%
Maccabi Petah Tikva
45%
Ashdod
44%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
43%
Hapoel Hadera
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ironi Tiberias
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Maccabi Petah Tikva
For 4.8 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 10.7 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ironi Tiberias
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (42)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Maccabi Petah Tikva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.1
8.7
2.9
2.7
3.1
25.8
24.4
27.3
vs Stronger (12)
11.1
11.0
11.2
3.2
3.2
3.3
26.1
25.3
26.6
vs Similar (38)
8.2
8.7
7.5
2.8
2.5
3.1
25.6
24.1
27.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
31%
35%
27%
42%
38%
46%
81%
82%
80%
% under line
69%
65%
73%
58%
62%
54%
19%
18%
20%
This opponent (Ironi Tiberias) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
9.5
Bnei Sakhnin
9.4
Hapoel Hadera
9.2
Hapoel Beer Sheva
9.2
Maccabi Tel Aviv
9.2
Hapoel Haifa
9.0
Beitar Jerusalem
8.9
Maccabi Netanya
8.8
Maccabi Petah Tikva
8.8
Maccabi Haifa
8.5
Ashdod
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maccabi Netanya
5.5
Hapoel Haifa
5.3
Hapoel Beer Sheva
5.1
Maccabi Tel Aviv
5.0
Maccabi Haifa
5.0
Hapoel Hadera
5.0
Beitar Jerusalem
4.9
Bnei Sakhnin
4.6
Ashdod
4.6
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
4.5
Maccabi Petah Tikva
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
26.4
Hapoel Beer Sheva
25.6
Maccabi Petah Tikva
25.0
Maccabi Haifa
24.9
Hapoel Haifa
24.4
Beitar Jerusalem
24.0
Maccabi Netanya
23.9
Maccabi Tel Aviv
23.8
Hapoel Hadera
23.5
Bnei Sakhnin
23.1
Ashdod
22.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
36.8%
Under 9.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
72.4%
Under 3.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
82.9%
Under 21.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ironi Tiberias
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.70
0.53
0.73
0.20
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.64
0.67
0.75
0.23
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Petah Tikva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.73
0.27
0.67
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.60
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (25)
0.40
0.76
0.23
0.62
0.58
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ironi Tiberias) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ironi Tiberias
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.67
0.53
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.67
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.64
0.67
0.50
0.38
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Petah Tikva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.87
0.60
0.33
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.80
1.00
2.50
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.56
0.85
0.31
0.42
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ironi Tiberias) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Wilson Harris33%
Anas Mahamid22%
Vitalie Damașcan12%
Renato Gojković11%
Alon Azugi11%
Luka Štor8%
Tamir Glazer7%
Ido Cohen7%
Muhammad Handy6%
Liran Hazan6%
Idan Vered5%
Marco Wolff0%
Plamen Galabov0%
Andreas Karo0%
Déinner Quiñones0%
Rushine De Reuck0%
Eyal Golasa0%
Aviv Salem0%
Eden Shamir0%
Yarden Cohen0%
Jordy Soladio0%
Arad Bar0%
Amer Altoury0%
Or Roizman0%
Niv Yehoshua0%
Guy Deznet0%
Gal Gabi Maatuk0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gal Gabi Maatuk100%
Andreas Karo42%
Jordy Soladio29%
Eyal Golasa27%
Yarden Cohen27%
Rushine De Reuck25%
Muhammad Handy25%
Niv Yehoshua24%
Tamir Glazer21%
Aviv Salem19%
Plamen Galabov15%
Idan Vered15%
Marco Wolff13%
Vitalie Damașcan12%
Renato Gojković11%
Wilson Harris11%
Alon Azugi11%
Eden Shamir11%
Ido Cohen7%
Anas Mahamid6%
Liran Hazan6%
Déinner Quiñones0%
Luka Štor0%
Arad Bar0%
Amer Altoury0%
Or Roizman0%
Guy Deznet0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yarden Cohen13%
Vitalie Damașcan12%
Liran Hazan11%
Idan Vered10%
Niv Yehoshua10%
Aviv Salem6%
Marco Wolff0%
Renato Gojković0%
Plamen Galabov0%
Andreas Karo0%
Déinner Quiñones0%
Rushine De Reuck0%
Wilson Harris0%
Eyal Golasa0%
Luka Štor0%
Muhammad Handy0%
Anas Mahamid0%
Alon Azugi0%
Eden Shamir0%
Jordy Soladio0%
Arad Bar0%
Tamir Glazer0%
Amer Altoury0%
Or Roizman0%
Guy Deznet0%
Gal Gabi Maatuk0%
Ido Cohen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vitalie Damașcan19%
Wilson Harris11%
Anas Mahamid11%
Liran Hazan11%
Idan Vered10%
Tamir Glazer7%
Eden Shamir5%
Marco Wolff0%
Renato Gojković0%
Plamen Galabov0%
Andreas Karo0%
Déinner Quiñones0%
Rushine De Reuck0%
Eyal Golasa0%
Luka Štor0%
Muhammad Handy0%
Alon Azugi0%
Aviv Salem0%
Yarden Cohen0%
Jordy Soladio0%
Arad Bar0%
Amer Altoury0%
Or Roizman0%
Niv Yehoshua0%
Guy Deznet0%
Gal Gabi Maatuk0%
Ido Cohen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (29)
€35m
MH (33)
€27m
HBS (26)
€20m
BJ (28)
€17m
MN (24)
€11m
IKS (22)
€7m
MPT (25)
€6m
HK (21)
€6m
BS (20)
€5m
IT (24)
€5m
HH (18)
€4m
ASH (23)
€4m
MBR (18)
€3m
Ironi Tiberias and Maccabi Petah Tikva have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (12)
€13m
HBS (13)
€10m
BJ (11)
€9m
MH (11)
€7m
MN (5)
€3m
MPT (11)
€3m
IKS (8)
€3m
IT (9)
€2m
BS (6)
€2m
MBR (8)
€2m
HH (6)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
ASH (8)
€1m
Ironi Tiberias and Maccabi Petah Tikva have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MH (9)
€10m
MTA (6)
€9m
HBS (3)
€5m
MN (8)
€3m
BJ (5)
€3m
HK (5)
€1m
IKS (3)
€1m
BS (6)
€1m
MPT (4)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
HH (3)
€1m
ASH (6)
€1m
MBR (2)
€0m
Ironi Tiberias and Maccabi Petah Tikva have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (11)
€13m
MH (13)
€10m
BJ (12)
€5m
MN (11)
€5m
HBS (10)
€5m
HK (11)
€3m
IKS (11)
€2m
HH (9)
€2m
BS (8)
€2m
MPT (10)
€2m
IT (10)
€2m
ASH (9)
€1m
MBR (8)
€1m
Ironi Tiberias and Maccabi Petah Tikva have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Israel: Ligat Ha'al 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Ligat Ha'al stats & trends →