Ironi Tiberias, who have been defensively solid at home with an average of 1.62 goals conceded, face Maccabi Petah Tikva, whose away form shows a slightly tighter defence, conceding only 1.31 goals per match. Both sides have scored 1.46 goals on average against similar opposition, suggesting a low-scoring affair. The model predicts a 43 % chance of a home win, 31 % for a draw, and 26 % for an away win, with the home win being the most likely outcome. The expected total goals hover at 2.2, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 14.3 % probability.
The model’s selections include a 99.8 % chance of Under 7.5, 99.2 % for Under 6.5, 98.4 % for Away Under 3.5 goals, 97.3 % for Under 5.5, 95.8 % for Home Under 3.5 goals, 92.3 % for Under 4.5, 92.8 % for Away Under 2.5 goals (missed), and 90.3 % for Home +2 handicap (missed). The match is likely to stay tight, with the home side’s defensive resilience giving them a slight edge despite Maccabi’s recent three-game winning streak.
Results analysis
Ironi Tiberias finished 0-3 against Maccabi Petah Tikva (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 43% home win, 31% draw and 26% away win. Picks that landed: Under 7.5 (100%), Under 6.5 (99%), Away under 3.5 goals (98%), Under 5.5 (97%), Home under 3.5 goals (96%), Under 4.5 (92%). Missed: Away under 2.5 goals (93%), Home +2 handicap (90%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ironi Tiberias win✗ Miss
43.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva win✓ Hit
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ironi Tiberias
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.57
1.53
1.47
1.33
1.67
vs Stronger (5)
1.80
1.80
2.00
0.50
1.67
2.67
vs Similar (25)
1.36
1.52
1.46
1.62
1.25
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Petah Tikva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.23
2.00
1.25
1.36
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.70
1.30
1.93
1.29
1.46
1.31
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.67
2.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ironi Tiberias) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.9%
Under 1.5
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.9%
Under 2.5
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.9%
Under 3.5
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.8%
No
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0
12.4%
0-0
11.9%
2-0
8.9%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
6.2%
0-2
4.8%
Ironi Tiberias goals ↓
Maccabi Petah Tikva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.8%
4.8%
1.5%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.2%
2.0%
0.5%
2
8.9%
8.4%
4.0%
1.3%
0.3%
3
3.8%
3.6%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ironi Tiberias goals (down), columns = Maccabi Petah Tikva goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Beitar Jerusalem
3.00
Maccabi Tel Aviv
3.00
Hapoel Tel Aviv
2.00
Maccabi Netanya
2.00
Hapoel Katamon
1.80
Hapoel Haifa
1.80
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.32
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.20
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.20
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.16
Bnei Sakhnin
1.00
Ironi Tiberias
0.80
Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.00
Maccabi Haifa
0.00
Ironi Tiberias is 0.52 points worse than Maccabi Petah Tikva in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Beitar Jerusalem
3.00
Maccabi Tel Aviv
2.00
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.80
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.67
Maccabi Netanya
1.60
Hapoel Katamon
1.60
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.26
Hapoel Haifa
1.20
Ironi Tiberias
1.20
Bnei Sakhnin
1.20
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.11
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.80
Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.00
Maccabi Haifa
0.00
Ironi Tiberias is 0.06 goals worse than Maccabi Petah Tikva in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beitar Jerusalem
0.33
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.00
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.00
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.00
Hapoel Katamon
1.20
Maccabi Netanya
1.40
Ironi Tiberias
1.40
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.56
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.60
Bnei Sakhnin
1.60
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.77
Hapoel Haifa
1.80
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.00
Maccabi Haifa
2.00
Ironi Tiberias is 0.16 goals better than Maccabi Petah Tikva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ironi Tiberias or Draw✗ Miss
73.9%
Avg Implied -
43%
31%
26%
covers Ironi Tiberias + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias or Maccabi Petah Tikva✓ Hit
69.1%
Avg Implied -
43%
31%
26%
covers Ironi Tiberias + Maccabi Petah Tikva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Maccabi Petah Tikva✓ Hit
57.0%
Avg Implied -
43%
31%
26%
covers Draw + Maccabi Petah Tikva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
72.5%
Under
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.1%
Under
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.4%
Under
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
24.6%
Under
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ironi Tiberias, so a minus line means Ironi Tiberias give that many goals of a start and Maccabi Petah Tikva receive them. At -1, Ironi Tiberias must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ironi Tiberias win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Maccabi Petah Tikva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.30
0.75
0.31
0.64
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.70
0.33
0.71
0.36
0.69
0.31
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Ironi Tiberias) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ironi Tiberias
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
0.40
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.72
0.85
0.77
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Petah Tikva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.93
1.25
0.94
0.71
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.00
0.96
1.21
0.93
0.77
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ironi Tiberias) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Maccabi Petah Tikva · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Wilson Harris33%
Anas Mahamid22%
Vitalie Damașcan12%
Renato Gojković11%
Alon Azugi11%
Luka Štor8%
Tamir Glazer7%
Ido Cohen7%
Muhammad Handy6%
Liran Hazan6%
Idan Vered5%
Marco Wolff0%
Plamen Galabov0%
Andreas Karo0%
Déinner Quiñones0%
Rushine De Reuck0%
Eyal Golasa0%
Aviv Salem0%
Eden Shamir0%
Yarden Cohen0%
Jordy Soladio0%
Arad Bar0%
Amer Altoury0%
Or Roizman0%
Niv Yehoshua0%
Guy Deznet0%
Gal Gabi Maatuk0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gal Gabi Maatuk100%
Andreas Karo42%
Jordy Soladio29%
Eyal Golasa27%
Yarden Cohen27%
Rushine De Reuck25%
Muhammad Handy25%
Niv Yehoshua24%
Tamir Glazer21%
Aviv Salem19%
Plamen Galabov15%
Idan Vered15%
Marco Wolff13%
Vitalie Damașcan12%
Renato Gojković11%
Wilson Harris11%
Alon Azugi11%
Eden Shamir11%
Ido Cohen7%
Anas Mahamid6%
Liran Hazan6%
Déinner Quiñones0%
Luka Štor0%
Arad Bar0%
Amer Altoury0%
Or Roizman0%
Guy Deznet0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yarden Cohen13%
Vitalie Damașcan12%
Liran Hazan11%
Idan Vered10%
Niv Yehoshua10%
Aviv Salem6%
Marco Wolff0%
Renato Gojković0%
Plamen Galabov0%
Andreas Karo0%
Déinner Quiñones0%
Rushine De Reuck0%
Wilson Harris0%
Eyal Golasa0%
Luka Štor0%
Muhammad Handy0%
Anas Mahamid0%
Alon Azugi0%
Eden Shamir0%
Jordy Soladio0%
Arad Bar0%
Tamir Glazer0%
Amer Altoury0%
Or Roizman0%
Guy Deznet0%
Gal Gabi Maatuk0%
Ido Cohen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vitalie Damașcan19%
Wilson Harris11%
Anas Mahamid11%
Liran Hazan11%
Idan Vered10%
Tamir Glazer7%
Eden Shamir5%
Marco Wolff0%
Renato Gojković0%
Plamen Galabov0%
Andreas Karo0%
Déinner Quiñones0%
Rushine De Reuck0%
Eyal Golasa0%
Luka Štor0%
Muhammad Handy0%
Alon Azugi0%
Aviv Salem0%
Yarden Cohen0%
Jordy Soladio0%
Arad Bar0%
Amer Altoury0%
Or Roizman0%
Niv Yehoshua0%
Guy Deznet0%
Gal Gabi Maatuk0%
Ido Cohen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (29)
€35m
MH (33)
€27m
HBS (26)
€20m
HTA (27)
€18m
BJ (28)
€17m
MN (24)
€11m
IKS (22)
€7m
MPT (25)
€6m
HK (21)
€6m
HPT (22)
€6m
HRG (26)
€5m
BS (20)
€5m
IT (24)
€5m
HH (18)
€4m
Ironi Tiberias and Maccabi Petah Tikva have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (12)
€13m
HTA (13)
€11m
HBS (13)
€10m
BJ (11)
€9m
MH (11)
€7m
MN (5)
€3m
MPT (11)
€3m
IKS (8)
€3m
IT (9)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (6)
€2m
BS (6)
€2m
HH (6)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
Ironi Tiberias and Maccabi Petah Tikva have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MH (9)
€10m
MTA (6)
€9m
HBS (3)
€5m
MN (8)
€3m
BJ (5)
€3m
HTA (4)
€2m
HK (5)
€1m
HPT (5)
€1m
IKS (3)
€1m
BS (6)
€1m
HRG (6)
€1m
MPT (4)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
HH (3)
€1m
Ironi Tiberias and Maccabi Petah Tikva have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (11)
€13m
MH (13)
€10m
BJ (12)
€5m
MN (11)
€5m
HBS (10)
€5m
HTA (10)
€5m
HK (11)
€3m
IKS (11)
€2m
HH (9)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (11)
€2m
BS (8)
€2m
MPT (10)
€2m
IT (10)
€2m
Ironi Tiberias and Maccabi Petah Tikva have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Israel: Ligat Ha'al 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Ligat Ha'al stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Maccabi Netanya
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Maccabi Haifa
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Hapoel Haifa
Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Beitar Jerusalem
Hapoel Katamon