Irtysh face FC Astana with the model favouring an away win, a 48% chance against a 25% home win and a 26% draw. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a modestly open game, with the single most likely scoreline 1-1 at 12.5%. Irtysh, playing at home, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against teams of similar strength, while FC Astana, on the road, averages 1.5 scored and only 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Under 6.5 (97.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.9%), Under 5.5 (93.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.9%), Away +2 handicap (89.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (88.5%) and Under 4.5 (83.9%). Irtysh come off a win, while FC Astana remain unbeaten in their last five, adding intrigue to an encounter where the odds lean decisively toward the visiting side.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Irtysh win
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Astana win
51.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Irtysh
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.50
1.03
2.62
1.06
2.36
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.40
1.40
1.50
1.33
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (20)
3.05
0.85
3.30
0.90
2.80
0.80
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Astana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Astana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.40
1.33
3.21
1.71
1.69
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.88
1.56
2.25
2.12
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
3.00
1.07
4.50
1.17
1.88
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Irtysh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.3%
Under 1.5
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.9%
Under 2.5
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.5%
Under 3.5
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.8%
No
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-2
9.7%
0-1
8.8%
0-2
8.7%
0-0
6.7%
2-1
6.2%
1-3
5.7%
2-2
5.4%
Irtysh goals ↓
FC Astana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
8.8%
8.7%
5.1%
2.3%
1
5.2%
12%
9.7%
5.7%
2.5%
2
3.5%
6.2%
5.4%
3.2%
1.4%
3
1.3%
2.3%
2.0%
1.2%
0.5%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Irtysh goals (down), columns = FC Astana goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
Irtysh is 0.80 points worse than FC Astana in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 2.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
Irtysh is 0.80 goals worse than FC Astana in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 2.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
Irtysh is 0.80 goals worse than FC Astana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Irtysh
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC Astana
For 5.5 · Against 3.5 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.0 · Against 1.5 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.0 · Against 9.5 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Irtysh
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (44)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (31)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (FC Astana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Astana
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.3
9.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
22.8
21.7
24.0
vs Stronger (1)
6.0
6.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
15.0
15.0
-
vs Similar (28)
10.2
11.0
9.7
1.2
1.1
1.3
24.4
25.0
24.0
vs Weaker (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
67%
33%
8%
8%
8%
67%
67%
67%
% under line
50%
33%
67%
92%
92%
92%
33%
33%
33%
This opponent (Irtysh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.4
FK Tobol Kostanay
10.0
Aktobe
9.5
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.4
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
28.7
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Irtysh or Draw
48.6%
Avg Implied -
23%
26%
51%
covers Irtysh + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Irtysh or FC Astana
74.3%
Avg Implied -
23%
26%
51%
covers Irtysh + FC Astana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Astana
77.1%
Avg Implied -
23%
26%
51%
covers Draw + FC Astana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Irtysh over/under 0.5
Over
67.2%
Under
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Irtysh over/under 1.5
Over
30.6%
Under
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Irtysh over/under 2.5
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Irtysh over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 0.5
Over
82.8%
Under
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 1.5
Over
52.6%
Under
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 2.5
Over
25.9%
Under
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 3.5
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Irtysh, so a minus line means Irtysh give that many goals of a start and FC Astana receive them. At -1, Irtysh must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Irtysh win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Irtysh)
Irtysh -2
2.7%
Draw -2
6.4%
FC Astana +2
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Irtysh)
Irtysh -1
9.2%
Draw -1
13.7%
FC Astana +1
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Irtysh)
Irtysh +1
48.6%
Draw +1
22.3%
FC Astana -1
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Irtysh)
Irtysh +2
70.9%
Draw +2
16.1%
FC Astana -2
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Irtysh
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.57
1.25
0.62
0.79
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.70
0.50
0.83
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.25
0.50
1.70
0.50
0.80
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Astana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Astana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.70
1.50
1.14
0.81
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.12
0.94
1.38
1.38
0.88
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
1.14
0.43
1.67
0.83
0.75
0.12
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Irtysh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Irtysh over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Irtysh over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Irtysh over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Irtysh
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.47
1.38
0.44
1.57
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.70
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.80
0.35
1.60
0.40
2.00
0.30
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Astana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Astana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.63
1.71
0.57
0.88
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.62
0.88
0.75
0.62
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
1.86
0.64
2.83
0.33
1.12
0.88
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Irtysh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Irtysh over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Irtysh over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Irtysh over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Astana · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kipras Kazukolovas50%
Marin Tomasov25%
Branimir Kalaica25%
Ramazan Karimov0%
Karlo Bartolec0%
Nazmi Gripshi0%
Max Ebong0%
Josip Čondrić0%
Barnes Osei0%
Aleksa Amanović0%
Ousmane Camara0%
Islambek Kuat0%
Yan Vorogovskiy0%
Aleksandr Marochkin0%
Geoffrey Chinedu Charles0%
Elkhan Astanov0%
Nnamdi Ahanonu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Josip Čondrić67%
Max Ebong50%
Aleksa Amanović50%
Islambek Kuat33%
Karlo Bartolec25%
Geoffrey Chinedu Charles25%
Barnes Osei20%
Elkhan Astanov20%
Ramazan Karimov17%
Marin Tomasov0%
Nazmi Gripshi0%
Branimir Kalaica0%
Ousmane Camara0%
Yan Vorogovskiy0%
Aleksandr Marochkin0%
Kipras Kazukolovas0%
Nnamdi Ahanonu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Karlo Bartolec50%
Marin Tomasov25%
Yan Vorogovskiy25%
Ramazan Karimov0%
Nazmi Gripshi0%
Max Ebong0%
Josip Čondrić0%
Barnes Osei0%
Branimir Kalaica0%
Aleksa Amanović0%
Ousmane Camara0%
Islambek Kuat0%
Aleksandr Marochkin0%
Geoffrey Chinedu Charles0%
Elkhan Astanov0%
Kipras Kazukolovas0%
Nnamdi Ahanonu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nnamdi Ahanonu33%
Geoffrey Chinedu Charles25%
Marin Tomasov0%
Ramazan Karimov0%
Karlo Bartolec0%
Nazmi Gripshi0%
Max Ebong0%
Josip Čondrić0%
Barnes Osei0%
Branimir Kalaica0%
Aleksa Amanović0%
Ousmane Camara0%
Islambek Kuat0%
Yan Vorogovskiy0%
Aleksandr Marochkin0%
Elkhan Astanov0%
Kipras Kazukolovas0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Irtysh's squad is €6m less valuable than FC Astana's (€4m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Irtysh's attack is €2m less valuable than FC Astana's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Irtysh's midfield is €1m less valuable than FC Astana's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Irtysh's defence is €3m less valuable than FC Astana's (€2m vs €5m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
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Ordabasy
Kairat Almaty
Aktobe
Okzhetpes
Kaspiy
FK Tobol Kostanay
Kyzyl-Zhar
Zhenys
Yelimay Semey
Ulytau
Kaisar
Atyrau
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Zhetysu