Irtysh, fresh from a win, looks set to dominate at home as the model favours a home victory with a 40% chance, while a draw sits at 25% and an Okzhetpes win at 35%. The expected total of 3.2 goals suggests a lively match, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 11.5% probability. Irtysh averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Okzhetpes, on a two-game winning run, averages 1.5 scored and 1.81 conceded away. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.3%), Under 6.5 (95.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.3%), Under 5.5 (89.4%), Over 1.5 (84.0%), Home +2 handicap (82.6%) and Home over 0.5 goals (80.9%). These picks reflect the high probability of a moderate scoring affair with Irtysh holding the edge.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Irtysh win
39.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes win
35.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Irtysh
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.50
1.03
2.62
1.06
2.36
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.40
1.40
1.50
1.33
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (20)
3.05
0.85
3.30
0.90
2.80
0.80
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Okzhetpes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Okzhetpes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.73
1.71
1.64
1.50
1.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.60
1.73
1.71
1.64
1.50
1.81
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Irtysh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.0%
Under 1.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.1%
Under 2.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.8%
Under 3.5
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.7%
No
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
6.7%
1-0
5.7%
2-0
5.6%
0-1
5.2%
0-0
5.1%
Irtysh goals ↓
Okzhetpes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
5.2%
4.9%
2.5%
1.0%
1
5.7%
11%
8.1%
4.2%
1.6%
2
5.6%
8.6%
6.7%
3.4%
1.3%
3
3.1%
4.8%
3.7%
1.9%
0.7%
4
1.3%
2.0%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Irtysh goals (down), columns = Okzhetpes goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
Irtysh and Okzhetpes are level in average points per game (both 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
Irtysh is 0.60 goals worse than Okzhetpes in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 2.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
Irtysh is 0.40 goals worse than Okzhetpes in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Irtysh
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Okzhetpes
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Irtysh
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (41)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Okzhetpes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Okzhetpes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (46)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Irtysh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.4
FK Tobol Kostanay
10.0
Aktobe
9.5
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.4
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
28.7
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Irtysh or Draw
65.0%
Avg Implied -
40%
25%
35%
covers Irtysh + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Irtysh or Okzhetpes
74.5%
Avg Implied -
40%
25%
35%
covers Irtysh + Okzhetpes
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Okzhetpes
60.4%
Avg Implied -
40%
25%
35%
covers Draw + Okzhetpes
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Irtysh over/under 0.5
Over
80.9%
Under
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Irtysh over/under 1.5
Over
49.3%
Under
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Irtysh over/under 2.5
Over
23.1%
Under
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Irtysh over/under 3.5
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 0.5
Over
78.7%
Under
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 1.5
Over
45.8%
Under
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 2.5
Over
20.3%
Under
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 3.5
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Irtysh, so a minus line means Irtysh give that many goals of a start and Okzhetpes receive them. At -1, Irtysh must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Irtysh win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Irtysh)
Irtysh -2
8.5%
Draw -2
12.1%
Okzhetpes +2
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Irtysh)
Irtysh -1
20.7%
Draw -1
18.9%
Okzhetpes +1
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Irtysh)
Irtysh +1
65.0%
Draw +1
17.6%
Okzhetpes -1
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Irtysh)
Irtysh +2
82.6%
Draw +2
10.6%
Okzhetpes -2
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Irtysh
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.57
1.25
0.62
0.79
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.70
0.50
0.83
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.25
0.50
1.70
0.50
0.80
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Okzhetpes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Okzhetpes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.83
1.00
0.57
0.75
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.87
0.83
1.00
0.57
0.75
1.06
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Irtysh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.2%
Under 0.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.4%
Under 1.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.3%
Under 2.5
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Irtysh over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.3%
Under
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Irtysh over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.6%
Under
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Irtysh over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.8%
Under
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Irtysh
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.47
1.38
0.44
1.57
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.70
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.80
0.35
1.60
0.40
2.00
0.30
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Okzhetpes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Okzhetpes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.90
0.71
1.07
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.73
0.90
0.71
1.07
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Irtysh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.9%
Under 0.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
54.8%
Under 1.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.4%
Under 2.5
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Irtysh over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.6%
Under
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Irtysh over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.8%
Under
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Irtysh over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.7%
Under
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 1.5 2H
Over
24.8%
Under
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Irtysh and Okzhetpes have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Irtysh and Okzhetpes have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Irtysh and Okzhetpes have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Irtysh and Okzhetpes have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
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Ordabasy
FC Astana
Kairat Almaty
Aktobe
Kaspiy
FK Tobol Kostanay
Kyzyl-Zhar
Zhenys
Yelimay Semey
Ulytau
Kaisar
Atyrau
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Zhetysu