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Iskra vs FCM Ungheni Prediction & Stats

Date: 16/10/2026
Time: 11:00
Iskra
Iskra
Vs
72%
17%
11%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FCM Ungheni
FCM Ungheni
Moldova: Liga 1
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Iskra’s recent three-game winning streak and a 3-2 victory over FCM Ungheni set the tone for a clear home advantage. The model rates a home win at 72%, a draw at 17% and an away win at 11%, making a home win the unequivocal favourite. This high probability reflects Iskra’s strong home form - scoring an average of 2.22 goals and conceding 2.0 against weaker opposition - while FCM Ungheni, playing away against a stronger side, averages 2.07 goals scored and 1.79 conceded. The expected total goals sit at 3.7, with the most likely total being 3 goals at 21%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Iskra, with a 9.1% chance. The model’s selections include an 97.9% chance of Away under 3.5 goals, 96.4% for Under 7.5, 95.9% for Home +2 handicap, 93.2% for Home over 0.5 goals, 91.7% for Under 6.5, 91.4% for Away under 2.5 goals, 89.2% for Over 1.5 and 88.6% for Home or Draw. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Iskra win
71.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
16.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni win
11.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

IskraIskra

Last 10 – goals for & against
100-1002L30W20W31W01L20W13L21W100W32WH·POL01/05H·SIR05/05A·SPA09/05H·FC 16/05A·SIR20/05A·UNI31/07H·VUL07/08A·ZIM14/08H·SPA21/08A·FCM28/08← Super LigaLiga 1 →
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.602.071.471.601.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)2.100.601.830.672.500.50
vs Weaker (20)1.702.102.222.001.272.18
Clean sheet %33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-662W34L51W11D45L13L11D62W31W23LH·VIC10/04A·UNI17/04H·ZIM24/04H·VIC06/05A·FLO16/05H·VUL01/08A·SPA08/08H·UNI15/08A·ZIM21/08H·ISK28/08← Super LigaLiga 1 →
Avg total
5.5
Avg scored
3.2
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.531.773.071.572.061.94
vs Stronger (26)2.651.653.331.502.071.79
vs Similar (4)1.752.501.502.002.003.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%16%21%3%08%117%221%319%414%517%6+
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.2%
Under 1.5
10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
71.8%
Under 2.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
51.0%
Under 3.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.6%
No
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.1%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
8.1%
3-0
7.9%
1-1
7.4%
1-0
5.9%
4-1
5.5%
4-0
5.3%
Iskra goals ↓
FCM Ungheni goals →
01234
03.1%1.8%1.3%0.4%0.1%
15.9%7.4%3.5%1.2%0.3%
28.8%9.1%4.7%1.6%0.4%
37.9%8.1%4.2%1.4%0.4%
45.3%5.5%2.8%1.0%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Iskra goals (down), columns = FCM Ungheni goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Iskra is 0.11 points worse than FCM Ungheni in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 1.91).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Iskra is 0.66 goals worse than FCM Ungheni in terms of goals scored per game (1.93 vs 2.59).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Iskra is 0.39 goals worse than FCM Ungheni in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 1.55).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Iskra or Draw
88.6%
Avg Implied -
72%
17%
11%
covers Iskra + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Iskra or FCM Ungheni
83.1%
Avg Implied -
72%
17%
11%
covers Iskra + FCM Ungheni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FCM Ungheni
28.2%
Avg Implied -
72%
17%
11%
covers Draw + FCM Ungheni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Iskra over/under 0.5
Over
93.2%
Under
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5
Over
74.9%
Under
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5
Over
50.4%
Under
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 3.5
Over
28.3%
Under
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5
Over
64.3%
Under
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5
Over
27.6%
Under
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Iskra, so a minus line means Iskra give that many goals of a start and FCM Ungheni receive them. At -1, Iskra must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Iskra win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Iskra)
Iskra -2
31.3%
Draw -2
20.2%
FCM Ungheni +2
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Iskra)
Iskra -1
51.6%
Draw -1
20.2%
FCM Ungheni +1
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Iskra)
Iskra +1
88.6%
Draw +1
7.3%
FCM Ungheni -1
4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Iskra)
Iskra +2
95.9%
Draw +2
3.0%
FCM Ungheni -2
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

IskraIskra

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L00D20W20W01L10W13L10W40W20WH·POL01/05H·SIR05/05A·SPA09/05H·FC 16/05A·SIR20/05A·UNI31/07H·VUL07/08A·ZIM14/08H·SPA21/08A·FCM28/08← Super LigaLiga 1 →
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.771.000.801.000.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)1.100.100.830.171.500.00
vs Weaker (20)0.951.101.111.220.821.00
Clean sheet %57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W13L40W11D30W12L10W51W10W02LH·VIC10/04A·UNI17/04H·ZIM24/04H·VIC06/05A·FLO16/05H·VUL01/08A·SPA08/08H·UNI15/08A·ZIM21/08H·ISK28/08← Super LigaLiga 1 →
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.470.801.790.861.190.75
vs Stronger (26)1.500.851.920.831.140.86
vs Similar (4)1.250.501.001.001.500.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Iskra over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

IskraIskra

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D30W00D11D00D10W00D11D60W12LH·POL01/05H·SIR05/05A·SPA09/05H·FC 16/05A·SIR20/05A·UNI31/07H·VUL07/08A·ZIM14/08H·SPA21/08A·FCM28/08← Super LigaLiga 1 →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.831.070.670.601.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)1.000.501.000.501.000.50
vs Weaker (20)0.751.001.110.780.451.18
Clean sheet %57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-541W21W11D00D15L01L01L11D21W21WH·VIC10/04A·UNI17/04H·ZIM24/04H·VIC06/05A·FLO16/05H·VUL01/08A·SPA08/08H·UNI15/08A·ZIM21/08H·ISK28/08← Super LigaLiga 1 →
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.971.290.710.881.19
vs Stronger (26)1.150.811.420.670.930.93
vs Similar (4)0.502.000.501.000.503.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Iskra over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Away under 3.5 goals97.9%-------
Under 7.596.4%-------
Home +2 handicap95.9%-------
Home over 0.5 goals93.2%-------
Under 6.591.7%-------
Away under 2.5 goals91.4%-------
Over 1.589.2%-------
Home or Draw88.6%-------
Home +1 handicap88.6%-------
Home or Away83.1%-------
Under 5.582.7%-------
Home over 1.5 goals74.9%-------
Away under 1.5 goals72.4%-------
Over 2.571.8%-------
Home win71.8%-------
Home under 3.5 goals71.7%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (12)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
ZI (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (4)
€0m
ZI (1)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (4)
€0m
ZI (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
ZI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
ISK wins
2
Draws
3
FU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Iskra vs FCM Ungheni · H/A from ISK
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26AFCM Ungheni Vs ISK2-3
17/10/25HISK Vs FCM Ungheni1-0
29/08/25AFCM Ungheni Vs ISK3-1
25/07/25HISK Vs FCM Ungheni2-1
28/03/25AFCM Ungheni Vs ISK2-2
01/11/24AFCM Ungheni Vs ISK4-3
20/09/24HISK Vs FCM Ungheni2-3
10/08/24HISK Vs FCM Ungheni1-1

IskraIskra

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26AFCM Ungheni Vs ISK2-3
21/08/26HISK Vs Spartanii Selemet10-0
14/08/26AZimbru II Vs ISK1-2
07/08/26HISK Vs Vulturii Cutezători1-3
31/07/26AUniver Comrat Vs ISK0-2
20/05/26ASireți Vs ISK1-0
16/05/26HISK Vs FC Stăuceni3-1
09/05/26ASpartanii Selemet Vs ISK0-2
05/05/26HISK Vs Sireți3-0
01/05/26HISK Vs Politehnica UTM0-2

FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HFU Vs Iskra2-3
21/08/26AZimbru II Vs FU1-3
15/08/26HFU Vs Univer Comrat6-2
08/08/26ASpartanii Selemet Vs FU1-1
01/08/26HFU Vs Vulturii Cutezători1-3
16/05/26AFloreşti Vs FU5-4
06/05/26HFU Vs Victoria Bardar1-1
24/04/26HFU Vs Zimbru II5-1
17/04/26AUniver Comrat Vs FU4-3
10/04/26HFU Vs Victoria Bardar6-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Iskra
Iskra
Moldova: Liga 1
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW1.68
HomeLWWLW2.00
AwayWLWWW1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%58%38%
AVG goals3.423.123.69
Over 1.5 %80%71%88%
Over 2.5 %58%50%65%
Over 3.5 %46%42%50%
Scored1.821.961.69
Conceded1.601.172.00
BTTS62%54%69%
Clean Sheet28%42%15%
Corners---
Cards---
FCM Ungheni
FCM Ungheni
Moldova: Liga 1
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWL1.60
HomeWDLWL1.64
AwayWLLDW1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%48%48%
AVG goals4.364.763.96
Over 1.5 %92%100%84%
Over 2.5 %82%88%76%
Over 3.5 %68%80%56%
Scored2.402.722.08
Conceded1.962.041.88
BTTS80%88%72%
Clean Sheet12%8%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Vulturii CutezătoriVulturii Cutezători513
80%
2.6
208+12
5.6
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0004.01.6
-
2IskraIskra512
80%
2.4
186+12
4.8
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.61.2
-
3FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni57
40%
1.4
1310+3
4.6
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.62.0
-
4OguzsportOguzsport47
50%
1.8
31+2
1.0
25%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.80.2
-
5Univer ComratUniver Comrat57
40%
1.4
1514+1
5.8
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.02.8
-
6FC StăuceniFC Stăuceni47
50%
1.8
65+1
2.8
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
7FăleştiFăleşti47
50%
1.8
32+1
1.2
25%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.80.5
-
8FC National IaloveniFC National Ialoveni44
25%
1.0
34-1
1.8
75%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.0
-
9Victoria BardarVictoria Bardar43
25%
0.8
36-3
2.2
50%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.5
-
10Zimbru IIZimbru II53
20%
0.6
914-5
4.6
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.8
-
11Spartanii SelemetSpartanii Selemet51
0%
0.2
427-23
6.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.85.4
-
12FloreştiFloreşti00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →

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