This match between Iskra and Spartanii Selemet is shaping up to be a closely contested affair, with Iskra coming off a win in their last outing. The home team has struggled to score at home this season, averaging just 1.25 goals per match against weaker opponents, but they've also been conceding 1.5 goals on average. Meanwhile, Spartanii Selemet have been poor on the road, scoring only 1 goal per match against stronger opponents and conceding 2.1 goals.
The model predicts a home win with a probability of 61%, with a 23% chance of a draw and a 16% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 10.9%.
The model's selection is the home win, with Iskra also likely to win at home according to their form. The suggested picks include Over 1.5, which has an 80.2% probability of occurring. Iskra has a 61% chance of winning, a 23% chance of drawing, and a 16% chance of losing.
Results analysis
Iskra’s recent two-game winning streak was capped by a staggering 10-0 triumph over Spartanii Selemet, confirming the home side’s dominance. The pre-match favourite, Home win, came with a 61 % probability and the model’s call proved correct. The expected total of 2.9 goals was far eclipsed by the 10-goal outburst, leaving the model’s most likely total of 2 goals and its 24 % probability irrelevant. The model’s selections were mixed: Under 7.5 (98.9 %) missed, Away under 3.5 goals (98.4 %) hit, Under 6.5 (97.0 %) missed, Home +2 handicap (94.3 %) hit, Away under 2.5 goals (93.0 %) hit, and Under 5.5 (92.3 %) missed. The result was a decisive home win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Iskra win✓ Hit
60.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet win✗ Miss
16.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Iskra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.60
1.53
1.53
1.53
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
2.10
0.60
1.83
0.67
2.50
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.25
2.10
1.33
2.11
1.18
2.09
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartanii Selemet) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartanii Selemet
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
2.37
1.13
2.27
1.00
2.47
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
2.85
1.00
3.50
1.00
2.29
vs Similar (13)
1.00
2.00
1.17
1.00
0.86
2.86
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
2.00
1.33
2.33
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.2%
Under 2.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.8%
Under 3.5
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-0
10.5%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.6%
3-0
7.0%
3-1
6.6%
0-0
6.3%
1-2
4.7%
Iskra goals ↓
Spartanii Selemet goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
4.0%
2.4%
0.7%
0.2%
1
9.6%
11%
4.7%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.7%
1.5%
0.3%
3
7.0%
6.6%
3.1%
1.0%
0.2%
4
3.5%
3.3%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Iskra goals (down), columns = Spartanii Selemet goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Spartanii Selemet
2.22
Floreşti
2.07
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Iskra is 0.42 points worse than Spartanii Selemet in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 2.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Spartanii Selemet
2.89
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Iskra is 0.96 goals worse than Spartanii Selemet in terms of goals scored per game (1.93 vs 2.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.20
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Iskra is 0.74 goals worse than Spartanii Selemet in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Iskra or Draw✓ Hit
83.8%
Avg Implied -
61%
23%
16%
covers Iskra + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Iskra or Spartanii Selemet✓ Hit
76.9%
Avg Implied -
61%
23%
16%
covers Iskra + Spartanii Selemet
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Spartanii Selemet✗ Miss
39.2%
Avg Implied -
61%
23%
16%
covers Draw + Spartanii Selemet
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Iskra over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.3%
Under
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
59.1%
Under
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
32.1%
Under
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
61.0%
Under
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.3%
Under
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Iskra, so a minus line means Iskra give that many goals of a start and Spartanii Selemet receive them. At -1, Iskra must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Iskra win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Iskra)Actual: Iskra
Iskra -2
18.7%
Draw -2
18.9%
Spartanii Selemet +2
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Iskra)Actual: Iskra
Iskra -1
37.6%
Draw -1
23.2%
Spartanii Selemet +1
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Iskra)Actual: Iskra
Iskra +1
83.8%
Draw +1
10.5%
Spartanii Selemet -1
5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Iskra)Actual: Iskra
Iskra +2
94.3%
Draw +2
4.2%
Spartanii Selemet -2
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Iskra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.77
0.87
0.80
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.10
0.83
0.17
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.80
1.10
0.89
1.22
0.73
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartanii Selemet) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartanii Selemet
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.23
0.53
1.27
0.27
1.20
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
1.85
0.50
2.50
0.14
1.29
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.77
0.50
0.33
0.14
1.14
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.75
0.67
0.67
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.2%
Under 0.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
39.1%
Under 1.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
17.0%
Under 2.5
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Iskra over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
54.0%
Under
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
40.1%
Under
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Iskra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.67
0.73
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.45
1.00
0.44
0.89
0.45
1.09
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartanii Selemet) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartanii Selemet
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.13
0.60
1.00
0.73
1.27
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.86
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.69
1.23
0.67
0.67
0.71
1.71
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.25
0.67
1.67
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Iskra over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →