Iskra’s recent 3-game winning streak fuels expectations of a high-scoring encounter, and the model’s numbers back that narrative. The predicted outcome is a home win, with a 59% chance of Iskra triumphing, a 21% chance of a draw and a 21% chance of a Univers Comrat win. The expected total goals hover at 3.8, and the most likely total is three goals, yet the single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Iskra, with a 9% probability.
Iskra, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.83 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. Univers Comrat, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.5 conceded versus similar teams.
The model’s selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.2%), Under 7.5 (96.1%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.6%), Under 6.5 (91.0%), Home +2 handicap (90.8%), Home over 0.5 goals (90.8%) and Over 1.5 (89.9%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Iskra win
58.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat win
20.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Iskra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.60
2.07
1.47
1.60
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
2.10
0.60
1.83
0.67
2.50
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.70
2.10
2.22
2.00
1.27
2.18
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Univer Comrat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Univer Comrat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.18
1.93
2.06
1.94
2.33
1.92
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.22
1.89
1.40
1.40
1.00
2.50
vs Weaker (19)
2.63
1.95
2.36
2.18
3.00
1.62
Clean sheet %
21% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.9%
Under 1.5
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
72.9%
Under 2.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
52.4%
Under 3.5
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
69.2%
No
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.0%
1-1
8.3%
3-1
7.2%
2-0
6.5%
2-2
6.3%
1-2
5.3%
3-0
5.1%
3-2
5.0%
Iskra goals ↓
Univer Comrat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.0%
2.4%
2.2%
1.0%
0.4%
1
4.7%
8.3%
5.3%
2.5%
0.9%
2
6.5%
9.0%
6.3%
3.0%
1.0%
3
5.1%
7.2%
5.0%
2.4%
0.8%
4
3.1%
4.3%
3.0%
1.4%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Iskra goals (down), columns = Univer Comrat goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Iskra is 0.07 points better than Univer Comrat in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 1.73).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Iskra is 0.07 goals worse than Univer Comrat in terms of goals scored per game (1.93 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Iskra is 0.25 goals worse than Univer Comrat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Iskra or Draw
79.1%
Avg Implied -
59%
21%
21%
covers Iskra + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Iskra or Univer Comrat
79.4%
Avg Implied -
59%
21%
21%
covers Iskra + Univer Comrat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Univer Comrat
41.5%
Avg Implied -
59%
21%
21%
covers Draw + Univer Comrat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Iskra over/under 0.5
Over
90.8%
Under
9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5
Over
68.8%
Under
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5
Over
42.6%
Under
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 3.5
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 0.5
Over
75.4%
Under
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 1.5
Over
40.9%
Under
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 2.5
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 3.5
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Iskra, so a minus line means Iskra give that many goals of a start and Univer Comrat receive them. At -1, Iskra must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Iskra win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Iskra)
Iskra -2
20.7%
Draw -2
17.4%
Univer Comrat +2
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Iskra)
Iskra -1
38.1%
Draw -1
20.4%
Univer Comrat +1
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Iskra)
Iskra +1
79.1%
Draw +1
11.7%
Univer Comrat -1
9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Iskra)
Iskra +2
90.8%
Draw +2
6.0%
Univer Comrat -2
3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Iskra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.77
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.10
0.83
0.17
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.95
1.10
1.11
1.22
0.82
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Univer Comrat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Univer Comrat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.04
0.93
1.13
0.73
0.92
1.17
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.22
1.00
0.20
0.60
0.25
1.50
vs Weaker (18)
1.44
0.89
1.60
0.80
1.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
41% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.3%
Under 0.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.4%
Under 1.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
28.0%
Under 2.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Iskra over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.9%
Under
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.5%
Under
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 HT
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.1%
Under
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Iskra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.83
1.07
0.67
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
1.00
1.11
0.78
0.45
1.18
Clean sheet %
57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Univer Comrat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Univer Comrat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.22
1.00
1.07
1.20
1.42
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.89
1.20
0.80
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.33
1.06
1.00
1.40
1.75
0.62
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
84.7%
Under 0.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
58.1%
Under 1.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
31.8%
Under 2.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Iskra over/under 0.5 2H
Over
67.2%
Under
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 2H
Over
36.3%
Under
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 2H
Over
12.6%
Under
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.7%
Under
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vulturii Cutezători
FCM Ungheni
Oguzsport
FC Stăuceni
Făleşti
FC National Ialoveni
Victoria Bardar
Zimbru II
Spartanii Selemet
Floreşti