Iskra’s recent 3-game winning streak and an average of 2.22 goals scored at home set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, while Vulturii Cutezători, averaging 1.14 goals away against stronger opposition, are expected to struggle defensively. The model projects a 60% chance of a home win, 21% for a draw and 18% for an away victory, with the favoured result being a home win. The expected total of 3.5 goals points to a lively match, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Iskra, a 9.6% probability. Home side Iskra typically scores 2.22 and concedes 2.0 against weaker teams, whereas Vulturii Cutezători usually net 1.14 and concede 3.29 against stronger opponents. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.4%), Under 6.5 (93.4%), Home +2 handicap (92.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (89.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (87.5%), Over 1.5 (87.3%) and Under 5.5 (85.6%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Iskra win
60.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători win
18.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Iskra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.60
2.07
1.47
1.60
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
2.10
0.60
1.83
0.67
2.50
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.70
2.10
2.22
2.00
1.27
2.18
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vulturii Cutezători
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.59
2.52
1.64
2.14
1.54
2.92
vs Stronger (14)
1.21
3.00
1.29
2.71
1.14
3.29
vs Similar (11)
1.91
1.91
2.00
1.57
1.75
2.50
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
2.50
-
-
2.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
4% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.3%
Under 1.5
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68.1%
Under 2.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.5%
Under 3.5
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.2%
No
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.6%
1-1
9.2%
2-0
7.8%
3-1
7.3%
1-0
6.0%
3-0
6.0%
2-2
5.8%
1-2
5.1%
Iskra goals ↓
Vulturii Cutezători goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
2.8%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
1
6.0%
9.2%
5.1%
2.1%
0.6%
2
7.8%
9.6%
5.8%
2.4%
0.7%
3
6.0%
7.3%
4.5%
1.8%
0.6%
4
3.4%
4.2%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Iskra goals (down), columns = Vulturii Cutezători goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Iskra is 0.31 points better than Vulturii Cutezători in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 1.49).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Iskra is 0.01 goals worse than Vulturii Cutezători in terms of goals scored per game (1.93 vs 1.95).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Iskra is 0.15 goals worse than Vulturii Cutezători in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 1.78).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Iskra or Draw
81.5%
Avg Implied -
60%
21%
18%
covers Iskra + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Iskra or Vulturii Cutezători
79.0%
Avg Implied -
60%
21%
18%
covers Iskra + Vulturii Cutezători
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Vulturii Cutezători
39.5%
Avg Implied -
60%
21%
18%
covers Draw + Vulturii Cutezători
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Iskra over/under 0.5
Over
89.9%
Under
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5
Over
66.6%
Under
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5
Over
40.1%
Under
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 3.5
Over
19.8%
Under
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 0.5
Over
70.5%
Under
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 1.5
Over
34.5%
Under
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 2.5
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 3.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Iskra, so a minus line means Iskra give that many goals of a start and Vulturii Cutezători receive them. At -1, Iskra must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Iskra win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Iskra)
Iskra -2
21.1%
Draw -2
18.2%
Vulturii Cutezători +2
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Iskra)
Iskra -1
39.3%
Draw -1
21.2%
Vulturii Cutezători +1
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Iskra)
Iskra +1
81.5%
Draw +1
10.9%
Vulturii Cutezători -1
7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Iskra)
Iskra +2
92.5%
Draw +2
5.2%
Vulturii Cutezători -2
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Iskra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.77
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.10
0.83
0.17
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.95
1.10
1.11
1.22
0.82
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vulturii Cutezători
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.04
0.85
1.00
0.82
1.09
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.33
0.33
1.33
0.83
1.33
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.70
1.29
0.71
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
21% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Iskra over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Iskra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.83
1.07
0.67
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
1.00
1.11
0.78
0.45
1.18
Clean sheet %
57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vulturii Cutezători
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.79
1.08
0.85
0.92
0.73
1.27
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.80
1.10
0.71
0.86
1.00
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
-
-
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
38% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Iskra over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →