Iskra’s recent three-game winning streak fuels optimism for a high-scoring encounter, yet the model still favours a home victory with a 42% chance, a draw at 23% and an away win at 35%. The expected total of 3.7 goals points to a lively match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 9.4% probability. At home, Iskra averages 1.8 goals scored and 2.6 conceded against weaker opposition, while Zimbru II, playing away against stronger teams, nets only 1.0 and concedes 2.0 on average. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 (89%), BTTS Yes (71.3%) and Over 2.5 (70.9%). All three result probabilities - home win 42%, draw 23%, away win 35% - are explicitly stated, and every suggested pick is listed with its percentage.
Results analysis
In a shocking turn, the pre-match favourite, Iskra, failed to deliver, with Zimbru II clinching a 3-2 victory. The model had tipped a home win at 42% probability, but the outcome proved wrong. The match saw the model’s selections of Over 1.5 (89%), BTTS Yes (71.3%) and Over 2.5 (70.9%) all hit, underscoring the high-scoring nature of the game. Iskra entered on a three-game winning streak, yet their 2-goal tally fell short, while Zimbru II, after a four-match losing run, managed a 3-goal haul to secure the win. The final score of 2-3 confirms the upset.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Iskra win✗ Miss
42.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II win✓ Hit
34.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Iskra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.93
1.64
1.57
2.00
2.25
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (17)
1.88
1.59
1.56
1.00
2.25
2.25
vs Weaker (12)
1.92
2.25
1.80
2.60
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.78
1.78
2.00
1.20
1.50
2.50
vs Stronger (3)
2.00
1.67
2.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (2)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
2.25
1.50
1.00
1.50
3.50
Clean sheet %
11% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.0%
Under 1.5
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.9%
Under 2.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.0%
Under 3.5
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
71.3%
No
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.4%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
7.5%
2-2
7.2%
3-1
5.3%
2-0
4.7%
3-2
4.6%
1-3
4.3%
Iskra goals ↓
Zimbru II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
3.6%
3.9%
2.2%
1.0%
1
4.1%
9.4%
7.5%
4.3%
1.9%
2
4.7%
8.2%
7.2%
4.2%
1.8%
3
3.0%
5.3%
4.6%
2.7%
1.2%
4
1.5%
2.6%
2.2%
1.3%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Iskra goals (down), columns = Zimbru II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Sireți
2.33
Floreşti
2.07
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
Sheriff II
0.95
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Olimp Comrat
0.68
Iskra is 0.16 points better than Zimbru II in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sireți
3.47
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Univer Comrat
2.00
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Olimp Comrat
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Sheriff II
1.05
Iskra is 0.07 goals better than Zimbru II in terms of goals scored per game (1.93 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Sireți
1.33
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
Sheriff II
1.68
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Olimp Comrat
2.82
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Iskra is 0.34 goals worse than Zimbru II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Iskra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.79
0.82
0.73
0.82
0.82
0.82
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
-
-
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.62
0.50
0.62
0.88
0.62
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
1.20
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.14
Clean sheet %
43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.11
0.67
1.20
0.40
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.33
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.25
1.50
0.50
1.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
56% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Iskra over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Iskra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.82
1.14
0.64
0.73
0.94
1.41
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.50
-
-
0.00
3.50
vs Similar (16)
1.06
0.88
0.88
0.38
1.25
1.38
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
1.10
0.00
1.67
0.86
0.86
Clean sheet %
50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.11
0.80
0.80
0.50
1.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
11% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Iskra over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FCM Ungheni
FC Stăuceni
Univer Comrat
Sireți
Floreşti
Sheriff II
Oguzsport
Făleşti
Victoria Bardar
Olimp Comrat