Iskra’s recent three-game winning streak and a 3-2 victory over FCM Ungheni give the home side a clear edge, reflected in the model’s 71% probability of a home win. The Moldovan Liga 1 fixture is expected to see 3.8 goals on average, with the most likely total of three goals carrying a 20% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Iskra, a 8.9% probability. Iskra’s home form shows they average 2.22 goals scored and concede 2.0 against weaker opponents, while Zimbru II, playing away against a stronger side, averages 2.33 scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include an 97.4% chance of Away under 3.5 goals, a 95.8% chance of Under 7.5, a 95.6% chance of Home +2 handicap, a 93.6% chance of Home over 0.5 goals, a 90.5% chance of Under 6.5, a 90.3% chance of Over 1.5, a 90.1% chance of Away under 2.5 goals, and an 88.0% chance of Home or Draw. The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 71%, 17%, and 12% respectively.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Iskra win
70.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
17.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II win
12.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Iskra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.60
2.07
1.47
1.60
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
2.10
0.60
1.83
0.67
2.50
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.70
2.10
2.22
2.00
1.27
2.18
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.85
1.81
1.86
1.36
1.85
2.31
vs Stronger (11)
2.36
1.45
2.40
1.60
2.33
1.33
vs Similar (8)
2.00
1.38
2.00
0.80
2.00
2.33
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
2.75
1.00
1.75
1.00
3.75
Clean sheet %
19% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.1%
Under 1.5
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
73.4%
Under 2.5
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
53.0%
Under 3.5
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.2%
No
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.0%
3-1
8.1%
2-0
8.1%
3-0
7.3%
1-1
7.3%
4-1
5.5%
1-0
5.3%
2-2
5.0%
Iskra goals ↓
Zimbru II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.9%
1.8%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
1
5.3%
7.3%
3.7%
1.4%
0.4%
2
8.1%
9.0%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
3
7.3%
8.1%
4.5%
1.7%
0.5%
4
4.9%
5.5%
3.0%
1.1%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Iskra goals (down), columns = Zimbru II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Iskra is 0.16 points better than Zimbru II in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Iskra is 0.07 goals better than Zimbru II in terms of goals scored per game (1.93 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Iskra is 0.34 goals worse than Zimbru II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Iskra or Draw
87.5%
Avg Implied -
70%
17%
12%
covers Iskra + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Iskra or Zimbru II
82.9%
Avg Implied -
70%
17%
12%
covers Iskra + Zimbru II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zimbru II
29.5%
Avg Implied -
70%
17%
12%
covers Draw + Zimbru II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Iskra over/under 0.5
Over
93.3%
Under
6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5
Over
75.3%
Under
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5
Over
50.9%
Under
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 3.5
Over
28.8%
Under
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5
Over
67.0%
Under
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5
Over
30.4%
Under
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Iskra, so a minus line means Iskra give that many goals of a start and Zimbru II receive them. At -1, Iskra must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Iskra win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Iskra)
Iskra -2
30.6%
Draw -2
19.9%
Zimbru II +2
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Iskra)
Iskra -1
50.4%
Draw -1
20.0%
Zimbru II +1
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Iskra)
Iskra +1
87.5%
Draw +1
7.8%
Zimbru II -1
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Iskra)
Iskra +2
95.4%
Draw +2
3.3%
Zimbru II -2
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Iskra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.77
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.10
0.83
0.17
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.95
1.10
1.11
1.22
0.82
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
0.89
0.79
0.57
1.00
1.23
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
0.64
1.20
0.80
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.62
0.40
0.20
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
1.50
0.75
0.75
0.75
2.25
Clean sheet %
48% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Iskra over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Iskra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.83
1.07
0.67
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
1.00
1.11
0.78
0.45
1.18
Clean sheet %
57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.96
0.93
1.07
0.79
0.85
1.08
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
0.82
1.20
0.80
1.33
0.83
vs Similar (8)
1.25
0.75
1.60
0.60
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.25
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.25
1.50
Clean sheet %
26% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Iskra over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
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Vulturii Cutezători
FCM Ungheni
Oguzsport
Univer Comrat
FC Stăuceni
Făleşti
FC National Ialoveni
Victoria Bardar
Spartanii Selemet
Floreşti