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Jaiyq vs Arys Prediction & Stats

Date: 22/10/2026
Time: 10:00
Jaiyq
Jaiyq
Vs
62%
24%
13%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Arys
Arys
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Jaiyq are tipped to lift the home win, the model’s pick, with a 60% chance of victory, a 25% draw probability and a 15% chance of an Arys win. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly open match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-0, a 12.5% probability. Jaiyq’s home form shows they average 1.33 goals scored and have not conceded at home against similar opposition, while Arys, playing away, average 0.73 goals scored and concede 2.55 against similar teams. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.1%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (95.4%), Under 5.5 (95.3%), Home +2 handicap (95.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.5%) and Under 4.5 (88.2%). Both sides are coming off defeats, with Jaiyq losing 0-1 to Aktobe Jas and Arys dropping 0-1 to Sport Academy Kairat.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Jaiyq win
62.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arys win
13.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

JaiyqJaiyq

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L01L20W22D20W13L00D01L20WH·KAI08/04A·AST17/07H·KHA23/07A·SPO31/07H·TAR07/08A·EKI14/08H·KAS21/08A·AKT28/08H·YEL04/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.111.111.400.600.751.75
vs Stronger (1)1.003.001.003.00--
vs Similar (7)1.290.861.500.001.002.00
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %44% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArysArys

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D04L04L14L02L30W00D11D01L31WA·KHA15/03H·AKT09/04H·TUR16/07A·SHA24/07A·AST31/07H·TOB07/08A·KHA15/08H·TAR20/08A·SPO27/08H·EKI03/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.002.401.291.860.752.88
vs Stronger (8)0.883.251.002.670.803.60
vs Similar (21)0.952.191.201.800.732.55
vs Weaker (1)3.000.003.000.00--
Clean sheet %10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Jaiyq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.6%
Under 1.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.0%
Under 2.5
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.5%
Under 3.5
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
43.7%
No
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.5%
2-0
13.1%
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.4%
0-0
9.1%
3-0
7.8%
3-1
5.6%
0-1
4.8%
Jaiyq goals ↓
Arys goals →
01234
09.1%4.8%2.1%0.5%0.1%
114%11%3.7%0.9%0.2%
213%9.4%3.4%0.8%0.1%
37.8%5.6%2.0%0.5%0.1%
43.5%2.5%0.9%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jaiyq goals (down), columns = Arys goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Turan Turkistan
2.38
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Jaiyq
1.38
Ekibastuz
1.29
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.75
Tobol 2
0.38
Jaiyq is 0.38 points better than Arys in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.38
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.50
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Jaiyq
1.12
Astana II
1.12
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.75
Jaiyq is 0.12 goals better than Arys in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
0.88
Turan Turkistan
1.00
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.88
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Jaiyq is 0.75 goals better than Arys in terms of goals conceded per game (0.88 vs 1.62).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jaiyq or Draw
86.7%
Avg Implied -
62%
24%
13%
covers Jaiyq + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq or Arys
75.5%
Avg Implied -
62%
24%
13%
covers Jaiyq + Arys
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Arys
37.8%
Avg Implied -
62%
24%
13%
covers Draw + Arys
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jaiyq over/under 0.5
Over
83.4%
Under
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 1.5
Over
53.6%
Under
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 2.5
Over
26.8%
Under
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 3.5
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 0.5
Over
51.2%
Under
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5
Over
16.2%
Under
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Jaiyq, so a minus line means Jaiyq give that many goals of a start and Arys receive them. At -1, Jaiyq must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jaiyq win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jaiyq)
Jaiyq -2
17.4%
Draw -2
19.7%
Arys +2
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Jaiyq)
Jaiyq -1
37.0%
Draw -1
25.1%
Arys +1
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Jaiyq)
Jaiyq +1
86.7%
Draw +1
9.4%
Arys -1
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Jaiyq)
Jaiyq +2
96.1%
Draw +2
3.1%
Arys -2
0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JaiyqJaiyq

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D10W02L10W11D00D00D10WH·KAI08/04A·AST17/07H·KHA23/07A·SPO31/07H·TAR07/08A·EKI14/08H·KAS21/08A·AKT28/08H·YEL04/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.560.440.800.200.250.75
vs Stronger (1)1.001.001.001.00--
vs Similar (7)0.570.430.750.000.331.00
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArysArys

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W03L02L11D02L20W00D10W01L00DA·KHA15/03H·AKT09/04H·TUR16/07A·SHA24/07A·AST31/07H·TOB07/08A·KHA15/08H·TAR20/08A·SPO27/08H·EKI03/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.970.500.710.251.19
vs Stronger (8)0.121.500.331.330.001.60
vs Similar (21)0.380.810.400.600.361.00
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Jaiyq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jaiyq over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

JaiyqJaiyq

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L10W20W10W02L00D01L10WH·KAI08/04A·AST17/07H·KHA23/07A·SPO31/07H·TAR07/08A·EKI14/08H·KAS21/08A·AKT28/08H·YEL04/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.560.670.600.400.501.00
vs Stronger (1)0.002.000.002.00--
vs Similar (7)0.710.430.750.000.671.00
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %56% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArysArys

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L02L03L00D10W00D01L00D31WA·KHA15/03H·AKT09/04H·TUR16/07A·SHA24/07A·AST31/07H·TOB07/08A·KHA15/08H·TAR20/08A·SPO27/08H·EKI03/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.430.791.140.501.69
vs Stronger (8)0.751.750.671.330.802.00
vs Similar (21)0.571.380.801.200.361.55
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Jaiyq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jaiyq over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.6%-------
Away under 3.5 goals99.4%-------
Under 6.598.5%-------
Away under 2.5 goals96.4%-------
Home +2 handicap96.1%-------
Under 5.595.7%-------
Home under 3.5 goals89.2%-------
Under 4.588.9%-------
Home or Draw86.7%-------
Home +1 handicap86.7%-------
Away under 1.5 goals83.8%-------
Home over 0.5 goals83.4%-------
Home or Away75.5%-------
Under 3.575.5%-------
Home under 2.5 goals73.2%-------
Over 1.572.6%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
JAI wins
0
Draws
0
ARY wins

Head-to-head

Jaiyq vs Arys · H/A from JAI
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

JaiyqJaiyq

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/09/26HJAI Vs Yelimay Semey 22-0
28/08/26AAktobe Jas Vs JAI1-0
21/08/26HJAI Vs Kaspij Aktau 20-0
14/08/26AEkibastuz Vs JAI3-1
07/08/26HJAI Vs Taraz2-0
31/07/26ASport Academy Kairat Vs JAI2-2
23/07/26HJAI Vs Khan Tengri2-0
17/07/26AAstana II Vs JAI1-0
08/04/26HJAI Vs Kairat Almaty1-3

ArysArys

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26HARY Vs Ekibastuz3-1
27/08/26ASport Academy Kairat Vs ARY1-0
20/08/26HARY Vs Taraz1-1
15/08/26AKhan Tengri Vs ARY0-0
07/08/26HARY Vs Tobol 23-0
31/07/26AAstana II Vs ARY2-0
24/07/26AShakhter Karagandy Vs ARY4-1
16/07/26HARY Vs Turan Turkistan0-4
09/04/26HARY Vs Aktobe0-4
15/03/25AKhan Tengri Vs ARY1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Jaiyq
Jaiyq
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLW1.22
HomeLWWDW2.00
AwayLDLL0.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%60%0%
AVG goals2.222.002.50
Over 1.5 %67%80%50%
Over 2.5 %33%20%50%
Over 3.5 %33%20%50%
Scored1.111.400.75
Conceded1.110.601.75
BTTS33%20%50%
Clean Sheet44%80%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Arys
Arys
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDLW0.80
HomeLLWDW1.00
AwayDLLDL0.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%24%16%
AVG goals3.283.003.56
Over 1.5 %86%88%84%
Over 2.5 %64%60%68%
Over 3.5 %36%36%36%
Scored1.101.201.00
Conceded2.181.802.56
BTTS58%60%56%
Clean Sheet14%12%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy721
100%
3.0
242+22
3.7
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.40.3
-
2Turan TurkistanTuran Turkistan819
75%
2.4
198+11
3.4
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.0
-
3Akademiya OntustikAkademiya Ontustik819
75%
2.4
1610+6
3.2
88%
88%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
-
4Sport Academy KairatSport Academy Kairat817
62%
2.1
183+15
2.6
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.20.4
-
5TarazTaraz812
38%
1.5
810-2
2.2
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
6JaiyqJaiyq811
38%
1.4
97+2
2.0
62%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
7Kaspij Aktau 2Kaspij Aktau 2810
38%
1.2
1214-2
3.2
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
8EkibastuzEkibastuz79
43%
1.3
1215-3
3.9
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.1
-
9Astana IIAstana II89
38%
1.1
918-9
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.2
-
10ArysArys88
25%
1.0
813-5
2.6
75%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
11Khan TengriKhan Tengri87
25%
0.9
814-6
2.8
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
12Aktobe JasAktobe Jas87
25%
0.9
1023-13
4.1
88%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.9
-
13Yelimay Semey 2Yelimay Semey 286
25%
0.8
615-9
2.6
62%
50%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
14Tobol 2Tobol 283
12%
0.4
1118-7
3.6
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →

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