Jaiyq’s recent slump, losing their last match 0-1 to Aktobe Jas, contrasts sharply with Shakhter Karagandy’s five-game winning streak, ending 4-0 over Khan Tengri. The model sees the match finely balanced, favouring an away win. Home win probability 34%, draw 28%, away win 38%. The expected total goals is 2.8, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.1% chance. Jaiyq, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 0.00 conceded; Shakhter, on the road, averages 1.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.1%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.2%), Under 6.5 (97.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.2%), Home under 1.5 HT goals (93.8%), and Under 5.5 (93.5%).
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jaiyq win
34.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy win
38.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jaiyq
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.25
1.25
0.75
0.75
1.75
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
1.00
3.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.83
1.33
0.00
0.33
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Karagandy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.50
1.17
2.94
0.94
2.00
1.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
2.54
1.17
3.14
1.00
1.70
1.40
vs Weaker (4)
3.25
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Jaiyq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.0%
Under 1.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.9%
Under 2.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.7%
Under 3.5
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.8%
No
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
8.1%
0-1
7.6%
0-0
7.3%
1-0
7.1%
0-2
6.3%
2-2
5.8%
Jaiyq goals ↓
Shakhter Karagandy goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
7.6%
6.3%
3.0%
1.1%
1
7.1%
13%
8.6%
4.1%
1.5%
2
5.6%
8.1%
5.8%
2.8%
1.0%
3
2.5%
3.6%
2.6%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.9%
1.2%
0.9%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jaiyq goals (down), columns = Shakhter Karagandy goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Jaiyq is 1.86 points worse than Shakhter Karagandy in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 3.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Jaiyq is 2.43 goals worse than Shakhter Karagandy in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 3.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Jaiyq is 0.71 goals worse than Shakhter Karagandy in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jaiyq or Draw
61.9%
Avg Implied -
34%
28%
38%
covers Jaiyq + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq or Shakhter Karagandy
72.3%
Avg Implied -
34%
28%
38%
covers Jaiyq + Shakhter Karagandy
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Shakhter Karagandy
65.8%
Avg Implied -
34%
28%
38%
covers Draw + Shakhter Karagandy
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jaiyq over/under 0.5
Over
74.2%
Under
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 1.5
Over
39.2%
Under
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 2.5
Over
15.6%
Under
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 3.5
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5
Over
76.3%
Under
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5
Over
42.2%
Under
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 3.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Jaiyq, so a minus line means Jaiyq give that many goals of a start and Shakhter Karagandy receive them. At -1, Jaiyq must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jaiyq win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jaiyq)
Jaiyq -2
5.7%
Draw -2
10.3%
Shakhter Karagandy +2
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Jaiyq)
Jaiyq -1
16.0%
Draw -1
18.3%
Shakhter Karagandy +1
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Jaiyq)
Jaiyq +1
61.9%
Draw +1
19.5%
Shakhter Karagandy -1
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Jaiyq)
Jaiyq +2
81.4%
Draw +2
11.6%
Shakhter Karagandy -2
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jaiyq
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.25
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
62% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Karagandy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.00
0.67
1.07
0.57
0.90
0.80
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Jaiyq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.8%
Under 0.5
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.7%
Under 1.5
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.2%
Under 2.5
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jaiyq over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.4%
Under
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.0%
Under
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jaiyq
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Karagandy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.57
1.94
0.44
1.14
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.54
0.50
2.07
0.43
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Jaiyq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.2%
Under 0.5
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.4%
Under 1.5
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.1%
Under 2.5
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jaiyq over/under 0.5 2H
Over
40.9%
Under
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 1.5 2H
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 2H
Over
65.1%
Under
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Akademiya Ontustik
Sport Academy Kairat
Turan Turkistan
Taraz
Kaspij Aktau 2
Ekibastuz
Astana II
Arys
Khan Tengri
Aktobe Jas
Yelimay Semey 2
Tobol 2