The model favours an away win, with a 44% chance, followed by a draw at 29% and a home win at 26%. The expected total is 2.5 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.9% probability. Jaiyq, playing at home against a similarly-strength opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 0.00 conceded, while Turan Turkistan, on the road, averages 1.55 scored and 1.73 conceded. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.9%), Under 5.5 (96.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.5%), Home under 2.5 goals (91.2%), Under 4.5 (89.8%) and Away +2 handicap (89.6%). Jaiyq are coming off a defeat, while Turan Turkistan arrive after a win. The overall shape points to a tight encounter with Turan Turkistan likely to edge out a narrow victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jaiyq win
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan win
44.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jaiyq
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.25
1.25
0.75
0.75
1.75
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
1.00
3.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.83
1.33
0.00
0.33
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turan Turkistan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.17
1.07
2.13
1.20
2.20
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
3.88
1.00
4.25
0.25
3.50
vs Similar (21)
1.29
1.57
1.00
1.40
1.55
1.73
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Jaiyq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.5%
Under 1.5
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
44.3%
Under 2.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.2%
Under 3.5
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.0%
No
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-1
11.0%
0-0
9.9%
1-2
9.0%
0-2
8.7%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
6.5%
2-2
4.6%
Jaiyq goals ↓
Turan Turkistan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
11%
8.7%
4.1%
1.5%
1
7.6%
14%
9.0%
4.2%
1.5%
2
4.6%
6.5%
4.6%
2.2%
0.8%
3
1.6%
2.2%
1.6%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jaiyq goals (down), columns = Turan Turkistan goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Jaiyq is 1.14 points worse than Turan Turkistan in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 2.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Jaiyq is 1.29 goals worse than Turan Turkistan in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Jaiyq is 0.14 goals better than Turan Turkistan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jaiyq or Draw
55.3%
Avg Implied -
26%
29%
45%
covers Jaiyq + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq or Turan Turkistan
70.8%
Avg Implied -
26%
29%
45%
covers Jaiyq + Turan Turkistan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Turan Turkistan
73.9%
Avg Implied -
26%
29%
45%
covers Draw + Turan Turkistan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jaiyq over/under 0.5
Over
64.3%
Under
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 1.5
Over
27.5%
Under
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 2.5
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5
Over
75.8%
Under
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5
Over
41.5%
Under
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Jaiyq, so a minus line means Jaiyq give that many goals of a start and Turan Turkistan receive them. At -1, Jaiyq must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jaiyq win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jaiyq)
Jaiyq -2
2.9%
Draw -2
7.2%
Turan Turkistan +2
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Jaiyq)
Jaiyq -1
10.1%
Draw -1
15.9%
Turan Turkistan +1
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Jaiyq)
Jaiyq +1
55.3%
Draw +1
22.4%
Turan Turkistan -1
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Jaiyq)
Jaiyq +2
77.7%
Draw +2
13.8%
Turan Turkistan -2
8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jaiyq
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.25
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
62% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turan Turkistan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.93
0.47
0.73
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.88
0.50
1.75
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.62
0.50
0.40
0.82
0.82
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Jaiyq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jaiyq over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jaiyq
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turan Turkistan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.23
0.60
1.40
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
2.00
0.50
2.50
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.95
0.50
1.00
0.73
0.91
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Jaiyq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jaiyq over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Karagandy
Akademiya Ontustik
Sport Academy Kairat
Taraz
Kaspij Aktau 2
Ekibastuz
Astana II
Arys
Khan Tengri
Aktobe Jas
Yelimay Semey 2
Tobol 2