The model favours a home win, with a 51 % chance of Jaiyq triumphing, 27 % for a draw and 21 % for Yelimay Semey 2 to win. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly open match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.1 % probability. Jaiyq, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and has not conceded in recent fixtures. Yelimay Semey 2, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5 %), Under 6.5 (98.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.4 %), Under 5.5 (95.5 %), Away under 2.5 goals (92.9 %), Home +2 handicap (92.3 %), Home under 3.5 goals (92.2 %) and Under 4.5 (88.6 %). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are assigned win chances.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jaiyq win
51.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 win
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jaiyq
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.25
1.25
0.75
0.75
1.75
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
1.00
3.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.83
1.33
0.00
0.33
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yelimay Semey 2
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
1.86
0.75
2.25
1.00
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
2.20
0.67
3.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Jaiyq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.1%
Under 1.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.5%
Under 2.5
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.0%
Under 3.5
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.8%
No
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-0
11.4%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
9.1%
0-1
6.3%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.3%
Jaiyq goals ↓
Yelimay Semey 2 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
6.3%
3.5%
1.1%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.6%
1.8%
0.4%
2
10%
9.5%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
5.3%
5.0%
2.4%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.1%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jaiyq goals (down), columns = Yelimay Semey 2 goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Jaiyq is 0.29 points better than Yelimay Semey 2 in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 0.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Jaiyq is 0.14 goals better than Yelimay Semey 2 in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Jaiyq is 0.86 goals better than Yelimay Semey 2 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jaiyq or Draw
78.8%
Avg Implied -
51%
28%
21%
covers Jaiyq + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq or Yelimay Semey 2
72.5%
Avg Implied -
51%
28%
21%
covers Jaiyq + Yelimay Semey 2
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Yelimay Semey 2
48.7%
Avg Implied -
51%
28%
21%
covers Draw + Yelimay Semey 2
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jaiyq over/under 0.5
Over
79.6%
Under
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 1.5
Over
47.2%
Under
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 2.5
Over
21.4%
Under
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 3.5
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 0.5
Over
61.0%
Under
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 1.5
Over
24.3%
Under
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 2.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Jaiyq, so a minus line means Jaiyq give that many goals of a start and Yelimay Semey 2 receive them. At -1, Jaiyq must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jaiyq win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jaiyq)
Jaiyq -2
11.6%
Draw -2
16.1%
Yelimay Semey 2 +2
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Jaiyq)
Jaiyq -1
27.7%
Draw -1
23.6%
Yelimay Semey 2 +1
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Jaiyq)
Jaiyq +1
78.8%
Draw +1
13.5%
Yelimay Semey 2 -1
7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Jaiyq)
Jaiyq +2
92.3%
Draw +2
5.7%
Yelimay Semey 2 -2
2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jaiyq
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.25
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
62% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yelimay Semey 2
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.71
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Jaiyq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.2%
Under 0.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.3%
Under 1.5
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.3%
Under 2.5
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jaiyq over/under 0.5 HT
Over
54.8%
Under
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.1%
Under
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
33.3%
Under
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jaiyq
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yelimay Semey 2
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.14
0.25
1.25
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (5)
0.20
1.20
0.00
1.67
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Jaiyq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.9%
Under 0.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.3%
Under 1.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.2%
Under 2.5
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jaiyq over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.8%
Under
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.1%
Under
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.9%
Under
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Karagandy
Akademiya Ontustik
Sport Academy Kairat
Turan Turkistan
Taraz
Kaspij Aktau 2
Ekibastuz
Astana II
Arys
Khan Tengri
Aktobe Jas
Tobol 2