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JäPS vs MP Result & Analysis

Date: 07/08/2026
Time: 15:30
Final 1-0
JäPS
JäPS
Vs
48%
26%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
MP
MP
Finland: Ykkösliiga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

JäPS is expected to emerge victorious in this Finland: Ykköisliiga match against MP, following their recent form of coming off a win against the same opponent, with MP coming off a defeat. The home win percentage is 48%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 26%.

The expected total number of goals is 3.0, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring 12% of the time. JäPS has a strong home form, scoring an average of 2.5 goals and conceding 1.5 goals against weaker opponents. MP, on the other hand, has a weaker away form, scoring an average of 1 goal and conceding 1.45 goals against stronger opponents.

The model's selection is the home win, with JäPS also being the model's selection for Over 1.5, occurring 80.9% of the time and offering a 5% edge.

Results analysis

The win extends JäPS's run, their second consecutive victory over MP. The final score of 1-0 was a stark contrast to the expected total of 3 goals, with the actual result being a home win. The model's selection, Home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 48%. The model's call was also the favourite to win.

The model's selection, Over 1.5, missed with a probability of 80.9%, while the most likely total goals was 2, with a probability of 24%. The most likely scores were 1-1, 2-1, and 1-0, with probabilities of 12%, 9.5%, and 7.7% respectively.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

JäPS win✓ Hit
48.1%
Avg Implied 40.8% · @ 2.23
Edge
+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.38
Dafabet
2.35
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.30
William Hil
2.25
Draw✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.33
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
Pinnacle
3.48
Unibet
3.45
10Bet
3.35
Dafabet
3.35
MP win✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied 31.9% · @ 2.85
Edge
-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.05
Pinnacle
2.93
Dafabet
2.90
Bet365
2.88
SBO
2.88

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

JäPSJäPS

Last 10 – goals for & against
90-911D12L11D20W91W31W01L10W20W01LA·SJK28/09A·KLU04/10H·JIP18/10A·TUP14/04A·TÖÖ28/04A·HIF13/05H·KUP26/05A·EIF18/07H·KLU25/07A·JIP30/07
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.331.541.231.711.41
vs Stronger (9)2.111.781.001.332.672.00
vs Similar (21)1.431.141.701.201.181.09
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MPMP

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D41W01L21W53W13L11D13L33D21WA·REI06/05A·KUP28/05H·HJK11/06A·JIP14/04A·JPS28/04A·LAH13/05A·SJK11/07A·JIP15/07H·KOO25/07H·KÄP29/07
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.901.172.331.561.61
vs Stronger (27)1.331.741.002.101.531.53
vs Similar (3)2.003.332.003.502.003.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (JäPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.9%
@ 1.21+4.7%
Under 1.5
19.1%
@ 3.86-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.20
Pinnacle
4.03
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.95
1xBet
3.95
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.3%
@ 1.71+2.9%
Under 2.5
42.7%
@ 2.03-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.79
Superbet
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.70
Under
Unibet
2.10
Bet365
2.08
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.06
10Bet
2.05
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.9%
@ 2.70+0.8%
Under 3.5
65.1%
@ 1.39-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.90
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Under
Unibet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.7%
@ 1.57+1.2%
No
40.3%
@ 2.21-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Betfair
1.60
William Hil
1.57
Betano
1.57
No
1xBet
2.29
Unibet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
Betfair
2.25
William Hil
2.20

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%@ 6.11+5.0%
2-1
9.5%@ 7.96+4.2%
1-0 ✓
7.7%@ 8.26+2.6%
2-0
7.7%@ 10.76+3.7%
1-2
6.8%@ 9.33+2.2%
0-0
6.2%@ 11.61+2.5%
2-2
5.9%@ 10.76+1.9%
3-1
5.5%@ 14.52+2.6%
JäPS goals ↓
MP goals →
01234
06.2%5.2%3.9%1.6%0.5%
17.7%12%6.8%2.8%0.9%
27.7%9.5%5.9%2.4%0.8%
34.5%5.5%3.4%1.4%0.4%
41.9%2.4%1.5%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = JäPS goals (down), columns = MP goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Haka
2.38
Kooteepee
2.29
PK-35
2.12
JIPPO
2.00
JäPS
1.43
EIF
1.25
Klubi-04
1.22
SJK Akatemia
0.75
MP
0.62
KäPa
0.22
JäPS is 0.80 points better than MP in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 0.62).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Haka
2.50
PK-35
2.00
Klubi-04
1.67
Kooteepee
1.57
JIPPO
1.50
MP
1.25
SJK Akatemia
0.88
KäPa
0.78
EIF
0.75
JäPS
0.71
JäPS is 0.54 goals worse than MP in terms of goals scored per game (0.71 vs 1.25).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
JäPS
0.86
JIPPO
0.88
EIF
0.88
PK-35
0.88
Kooteepee
1.00
Haka
1.00
Klubi-04
1.67
KäPa
2.00
SJK Akatemia
2.00
MP
2.25
JäPS is 1.39 goals better than MP in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 2.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JäPSJäPS

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W01L11D00D41W11D00D00D10W00DA·SJK28/09A·KLU04/10H·JIP18/10A·TUP14/04A·TÖÖ28/04A·HIF13/05H·KUP26/05A·EIF18/07H·KLU25/07A·JIP30/07
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.730.540.850.590.65
vs Stronger (9)0.780.780.000.671.170.83
vs Similar (21)0.480.710.700.900.270.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MPMP

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D00D11D11D11D00D00D21W21WA·REI06/05A·KUP28/05H·HJK11/06A·JIP14/04A·JPS28/04A·LAH13/05A·SJK11/07A·JIP15/07H·KOO25/07H·KÄP29/07
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.770.751.000.560.61
vs Stronger (27)0.520.700.600.800.470.65
vs Similar (3)1.671.331.502.002.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (JäPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
JäPS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JäPS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JäPS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

JäPSJäPS

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L11D00D20W50W20W01L10W10W01LA·SJK28/09A·KLU04/10H·JIP18/10A·TUP14/04A·TÖÖ28/04A·HIF13/05H·KUP26/05A·EIF18/07H·KLU25/07A·JIP30/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.601.000.381.120.76
vs Stronger (9)1.331.001.000.671.501.17
vs Similar (21)0.950.431.000.300.910.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MPMP

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D30W01L10W42W02L11D13L12L00DA·REI06/05A·KUP28/05H·HJK11/06A·JIP14/04A·JPS28/04A·LAH13/05A·SJK11/07A·JIP15/07H·KOO25/07H·KÄP29/07
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.130.421.331.001.00
vs Stronger (27)0.811.040.401.301.060.88
vs Similar (3)0.332.000.501.500.003.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (JäPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
JäPS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JäPS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JäPS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.9%1.21
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
+4.7%✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAK (21)
€1m
KOO (19)
€1m
JIP (21)
€1m
PK- (20)
€1m
EIF (20)
€1m
JÄP (24)
€1m
KÄP (25)
€1m
MP (19)
€0m
KLU (17)
€0m
JäPS and MP have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOO (10)
€1m
JIP (7)
€0m
EIF (9)
€0m
PK- (6)
€0m
JÄP (11)
€0m
HAK (7)
€0m
MP (10)
€0m
KLU (8)
€0m
KÄP (8)
€0m
JäPS and MP have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PK- (7)
€0m
HAK (5)
€0m
KÄP (6)
€0m
JÄP (4)
€0m
EIF (4)
€0m
JIP (4)
€0m
KOO (2)
€0m
MP (2)
€0m
KLU (3)
€0m
JäPS and MP have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAK (9)
€1m
KOO (7)
€0m
JIP (10)
€0m
EIF (7)
€0m
KÄP (11)
€0m
PK- (7)
€0m
JÄP (9)
€0m
MP (7)
€0m
KLU (6)
€0m
JäPS and MP have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
JÄP wins
1
Draws
0
MP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

JäPS vs MP · H/A from JÄP
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/24HJÄP Vs MP4-0
17/07/24HJÄP Vs MP1-1
19/05/24AMP Vs JÄP0-3

JäPSJäPS

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/07/26AJIPPO Vs JÄP1-0
25/07/26HJÄP Vs Klubi-042-0
18/07/26AEIF Vs JÄP0-1
26/05/26HJÄP Vs KuPS0-1
13/05/26AHIFK Helsinki Vs JÄP1-3
28/04/26ATöölön Taisto Vs JÄP1-9
14/04/26ATuPS Vs JÄP0-2
18/10/25HJÄP Vs JIPPO1-1
04/10/25AKlubi-04 Vs JÄP2-1
28/09/25ASJK Akatemia Vs JÄP1-1

MPMP

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/07/26HMP Vs KäPa2-1
25/07/26HMP Vs Kooteepee3-3
15/07/26AJIPPO Vs MP3-1
11/07/26ASJK Akatemia Vs MP1-1
13/05/26ALahti Vs MP3-1
28/04/26AJPS Vs MP3-5
14/04/26AJIPPO Vs MP1-2
11/06/25HMP Vs HJK Helsinki0-1
28/05/25AKuPS Akatemia Vs MP1-4
06/05/25AReipas Vs MP0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

JäPS
JäPS
Finland: Ykkösliiga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWL1.42
HomeDDDLW1.43
AwayWWWWL1.41
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%33%41%
AVG goals3.563.053.93
Over 1.5 %86%90%83%
Over 2.5 %58%48%66%
Over 3.5 %44%38%48%
Scored1.881.482.17
Conceded1.681.571.76
BTTS60%62%59%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners---
Cards---
MP
MP
Finland: Ykkösliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLDW0.98
HomeDLLDW0.62
AwayWWLDL1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%12%32%
AVG goals3.273.253.28
Over 1.5 %76%75%76%
Over 2.5 %66%69%64%
Over 3.5 %41%31%48%
Scored1.341.001.56
Conceded1.932.251.72
BTTS49%56%44%
Clean Sheet20%12%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1HakaHaka819
75%
2.4
208+12
3.5
100%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.51.0
-
2PK-35PK-35817
62%
2.1
167+9
2.9
88%
62%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.00.9
-
3JIPPOJIPPO816
62%
2.0
127+5
2.4
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.50.9
-
4KooteepeeKooteepee716
71%
2.3
117+4
2.6
57%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.61.0
-
5Klubi-04Klubi-04911
33%
1.2
1515+0
3.3
89%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.7
-
6EIFEIF810
38%
1.2
67-1
1.6
50%
12%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.80.9
-
7JäPSJäPS710
43%
1.4
56-1
1.6
43%
29%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.70.9
-
8SJK AkatemiaSJK Akatemia86
12%
0.8
716-9
2.9
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
9MPMP85
12%
0.6
1018-8
3.5
88%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.2
-
10KäPaKäPa92
0%
0.2
718-11
2.8
78%
67%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
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0%
1
0000.82.0
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Finland: Ykkösliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Ykkösliiga stats & trends →

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