JDFS Alberts are the clear favourite, with the model rating a 62% chance of a home win, 23% for a draw and 15% for a JFK Ventspils victory. The 62% figure reflects Alberts’ strong home form against tougher opponents, scoring an average of 2.15 goals and conceding only 0.77, while Ventspils struggle away, scoring only 0.5 and conceding 2.0. The expected total is 2.9 goals, with the most likely total at two goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 2-0, carrying a 11.1% probability. The suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.4% chance of hitting. Alberts are on a three-game winning streak, last beating Mārūpe 2-0, whereas Ventspils are coming off a draw, 1-1 against Riga FC II. The model’s selections are: Home win 62%, Draw 23%, Away win 15%. The Over 1.5 pick stands out with a 79.4% probability.
Results analysis
The match saw JDFS Alberts extend their three-game winning run, while JFK Ventspils came off a draw. The model’s favourite, Home win, was correct as the final score was 2-1 in favour of the hosts. The pre-match probability for a home victory was 62%. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.4% chance, hit as the game produced three goals. All other suggested picks were not listed, so no further outcomes need mention. The result matched the model’s expectations, confirming the accuracy of its predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
JDFS Alberts win✓ Hit
62.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils win✗ Miss
14.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
JDFS Alberts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
0.97
2.06
0.88
1.79
1.07
vs Stronger (25)
1.84
0.76
2.15
0.77
1.50
0.75
vs Similar (2)
1.50
3.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
6.00
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
1.00
2.00
1.50
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JFK Ventspils
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.40
1.00
1.20
0.40
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
1.43
1.00
1.50
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.4%
Under 1.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.3%
Under 2.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.9%
Under 3.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.9%
No
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.1%
1-1
10.8%
1-0
10.1%
2-1 ✓
9.9%
3-0
7.5%
3-1
6.6%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
4.4%
JDFS Alberts goals ↓
JFK Ventspils goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
3.9%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
1
10%
11%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
3
7.5%
6.6%
2.9%
0.9%
0.2%
4
3.7%
3.3%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = JDFS Alberts goals (down), columns = JFK Ventspils goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Grobiņa
2.54
Riga FC II
2.44
Skanste
2.19
JDFS Alberts
1.81
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.54
Rīgas FS II
1.42
Beitar
1.32
Tukums II
1.27
JFK Ventspils
1.08
Valmiera II
1.08
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.88
Smiltene
0.85
Dinamo Rīga
0.82
Rēzekne FA
0.40
JDFS Alberts is 0.73 points better than JFK Ventspils in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga FC II
3.28
Grobiņa
2.73
JDFS Alberts
2.31
Rīgas FS II
2.23
Skanste
2.23
Beitar
1.64
Tukums II
1.58
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.38
Dinamo Rīga
1.23
Smiltene
1.19
Valmiera II
1.15
JFK Ventspils
0.84
Rēzekne FA
0.60
JDFS Alberts is 1.47 goals better than JFK Ventspils in terms of goals scored per game (2.31 vs 0.84).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Riga FC II
0.60
Grobiņa
0.65
Skanste
0.92
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.08
JFK Ventspils
1.16
JDFS Alberts
1.38
Valmiera II
1.54
Rīgas FS II
1.62
Tukums II
2.08
Progress / AFA Olaine
2.35
Dinamo Rīga
2.45
Smiltene
2.58
Beitar
2.64
Rēzekne FA
3.12
JDFS Alberts is 0.22 goals worse than JFK Ventspils in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.16).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
JDFS Alberts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.27
0.88
0.19
0.86
0.36
vs Stronger (25)
0.72
0.20
0.77
0.15
0.67
0.25
vs Similar (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.33
1.50
0.50
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JFK Ventspils
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.20
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
JDFS Alberts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.70
1.19
0.69
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (25)
1.12
0.56
1.38
0.62
0.83
0.50
vs Similar (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
0.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JFK Ventspils
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.80
0.40
0.60
0.20
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Grobiņa
Riga FC II
Skanste
Saldus SS/Leevon
Rīgas FS II
Tukums II
Beitar
Valmiera II
Progress / AFA Olaine
Smiltene
Dinamo Rīga
Rēzekne FA