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JDFS Alberts vs Rēzekne FA Result & Analysis

Date: 17/09/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 1-1
JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts
Vs
77%
14%
9%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

JDFS Alberts are the clear favourite, with the model rating a 77% chance of a home win. Their recent three-game winning streak and strong home form - scoring 1.83 goals and conceding only 1.08 against tougher opponents - set the tone. Rēzekne FA, on the other hand, struggle on the road, averaging just 0.5 goals while conceding 2.0 against weaker teams, and they have endured five consecutive defeats. The expected total of 3.9 goals suggests a lively match, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0 for the home side, with an 8.8% probability. The model’s pick is a home win, and the overall probabilities are 77% for a home victory, 14% for a draw, and 9% for an away win. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 90.6%, Home win at 77.0% (though the model marks it as a miss), and Over 2.5 goals at 74.7%. Each selection is presented with its exact percentage, and no other outcomes are assigned a win probability.

Results analysis

The upset came early as JDFS Alberts, riding a three-game winning streak, failed to secure the predicted home victory, ending the match in a 1-1 draw. The model had named a home win as the favourite with a 77% probability, but the outcome proved otherwise. The over 1.5 goal selection hit, with 90.6% confidence, while the over 2.5 goal pick missed at 74.7%. The model’s home win call was wrong. JDFS Alberts had been strong at home, averaging 1.83 goals scored and conceding just 1.08, whereas Rēzekne FA had struggled away, scoring only 0.5 goals and conceding 2.0. The final score of 1-1 confirmed the draw, contradicting the model’s forecast.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

JDFS Alberts win✗ Miss
77.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
14.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA win✗ Miss
8.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L51W21W21W11D31W41W20W04L01LA·GRO28/05H·VAL04/06A·RĪG02/07H·JFK08/07H·SKA23/07A·PRO30/07A·SMI05/08A·SAL12/08H·DIN26/08A·BEI02/09
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.001.071.861.212.120.94
vs Stronger (26)1.880.851.831.081.930.64
vs Similar (2)1.503.501.001.002.006.00
vs Weaker (2)4.001.503.003.005.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Last 10 – goals for & against
90-915L02L12L12L11D11D09L14L13L01LA·SMI03/06H·SAL02/07A·TUK08/07H·DIN23/07A·BEI30/07A·JFK06/08A·RIG12/08H·GRO19/08A·VAL27/08H·RĪG03/09
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
3.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.932.801.192.380.643.29
vs Stronger (11)0.552.270.401.400.673.00
vs Similar (16)1.253.251.602.800.674.00
vs Weaker (3)0.672.331.003.000.502.00
Clean sheet %7% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%20%3%07%116%220%320%415%520%6+
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.6%
Under 1.5
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
74.7%
Under 2.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
54.7%
Under 3.5
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.9%
No
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
8.8%
3-0
8.6%
2-1
8.4%
3-1
8.3%
4-0
6.3%
1-1 ✓
6.3%
4-1
6.1%
1-0
5.4%
JDFS Alberts goals ↓
Rēzekne FA goals →
01234
02.6%1.4%0.9%0.3%0.1%
15.4%6.3%2.7%0.9%0.2%
28.8%8.4%4.0%1.3%0.3%
38.6%8.3%4.0%1.3%0.3%
46.3%6.1%2.9%0.9%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = JDFS Alberts goals (down), columns = Rēzekne FA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Grobiņa
2.54
Riga FC II
2.44
Skanste
2.19
JDFS Alberts
1.81
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.54
Rīgas FS II
1.42
Beitar
1.32
Tukums II
1.27
JFK Ventspils
1.08
Valmiera II
1.08
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.88
Smiltene
0.85
Dinamo Rīga
0.82
Rēzekne FA
0.40
JDFS Alberts is 1.41 points better than Rēzekne FA in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 0.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga FC II
3.28
Grobiņa
2.73
JDFS Alberts
2.31
Skanste
2.23
Rīgas FS II
2.23
Beitar
1.64
Tukums II
1.58
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.38
Dinamo Rīga
1.23
Smiltene
1.19
Valmiera II
1.15
JFK Ventspils
0.84
Rēzekne FA
0.60
JDFS Alberts is 1.71 goals better than Rēzekne FA in terms of goals scored per game (2.31 vs 0.60).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga FC II
0.60
Grobiņa
0.65
Skanste
0.92
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.08
JFK Ventspils
1.16
JDFS Alberts
1.38
Valmiera II
1.54
Rīgas FS II
1.62
Tukums II
2.08
Progress / AFA Olaine
2.35
Dinamo Rīga
2.45
Smiltene
2.58
Beitar
2.64
Rēzekne FA
3.12
JDFS Alberts is 1.74 goals better than Rēzekne FA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 3.12).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W10W21W10W20W21W10W02L01LA·GRO28/05H·VAL04/06A·RĪG02/07H·JFK08/07H·SKA23/07A·PRO30/07A·SMI05/08A·SAL12/08H·DIN26/08A·BEI02/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.370.930.361.060.38
vs Stronger (26)0.880.310.830.330.930.29
vs Similar (2)1.001.001.000.001.002.00
vs Weaker (2)2.500.502.001.003.000.00
Clean sheet %70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L00D01L11D01L01L03L03L01L01LA·SMI03/06H·SAL02/07A·TUK08/07H·DIN23/07A·BEI30/07A·JFK06/08A·RIG12/08H·GRO19/08A·VAL27/08H·RĪG03/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.400.811.190.211.64
vs Stronger (11)0.271.450.401.000.171.83
vs Similar (16)0.811.501.101.300.331.83
vs Weaker (3)0.000.670.001.000.000.50
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L31W11D00D01L11D20W10W02L00DA·GRO28/05H·VAL04/06A·RĪG02/07H·JFK08/07H·SKA23/07A·PRO30/07A·SMI05/08A·SAL12/08H·DIN26/08A·BEI02/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.700.930.861.060.56
vs Stronger (26)1.000.541.000.751.000.36
vs Similar (2)0.502.500.001.001.004.00
vs Weaker (2)1.501.001.002.002.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-602L02L11D01L10W10W06L11D12L00DA·SMI03/06H·SAL02/07A·TUK08/07H·DIN23/07A·BEI30/07A·JFK06/08A·RIG12/08H·GRO19/08A·VAL27/08H·RĪG03/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.400.381.190.431.64
vs Stronger (11)0.270.820.000.400.501.17
vs Similar (16)0.441.750.501.500.332.17
vs Weaker (3)0.671.671.002.000.501.50
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.590.6%-------✓ Hit
Home win77.0%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.574.7%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (25)
€3m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (10)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (6)
€1m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (9)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
3
JA wins
0
Draws
0
RF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

JDFS Alberts vs Rēzekne FA · H/A from JA
DateH/AGameScore
14/05/23ARēzekne FA Vs JA1-3
17/09/22HJA Vs Rēzekne FA2-0
14/05/22ARēzekne FA Vs JA1-4

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/23ABeitar Vs JA1-0
26/08/23HJA Vs Dinamo Rīga0-4
12/08/23ASaldus SS/Leevon Vs JA0-2
05/08/23ASmiltene Vs JA1-4
30/07/23AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs JA1-3
23/07/23HJA Vs Skanste1-1
08/07/23HJA Vs JFK Ventspils2-1
02/07/23ARīgas FS II Vs JA1-2
04/06/23HJA Vs Valmiera II5-1
28/05/23AGrobiņa Vs JA1-0

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/23HRF Vs Rīgas FS II0-1
27/08/23AValmiera II Vs RF3-1
19/08/23HRF Vs Grobiņa1-4
12/08/23ARiga FC II Vs RF9-0
06/08/23AJFK Ventspils Vs RF1-1
30/07/23ABeitar Vs RF1-1
23/07/23HRF Vs Dinamo Rīga1-2
08/07/23ATukums II Vs RF2-1
02/07/23HRF Vs Saldus SS/Leevon0-2
03/06/23ASmiltene Vs RF5-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLL1.77
HomeDWWDL1.73
AwayWWWWL1.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %51%45%57%
AVG goals2.862.772.95
Over 1.5 %72%77%67%
Over 2.5 %47%45%48%
Over 3.5 %30%23%38%
Scored1.811.771.86
Conceded1.051.001.10
BTTS51%59%43%
Clean Sheet33%32%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 0 Wins / 2 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL0.59
HomeWLLLL0.83
AwayLDDLL0.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %16%26%5%
AVG goals3.843.574.14
Over 1.5 %86%83%90%
Over 2.5 %64%65%62%
Over 3.5 %57%57%57%
Scored1.001.260.71
Conceded2.842.303.43
BTTS48%43%52%
Clean Sheet9%17%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1GrobiņaGrobiņa2666
81%
2.5
7117+54
3.4
85%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.70.7
-
2Riga FC IIRiga FC II2561
76%
2.4
8215+67
3.9
84%
72%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.30.6
-
3SkansteSkanste2657
69%
2.2
5824+34
3.2
81%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.20.9
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2647
50%
1.8
6036+24
3.7
88%
69%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
5Saldus SS/LeevonSaldus SS/Leevon2640
46%
1.5
4028+12
2.6
77%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2637
42%
1.4
5842+16
3.8
81%
69%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.6
-
7Tukums IITukums II2633
38%
1.3
4154-13
3.7
81%
77%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.1
-
8BeitarBeitar2533
40%
1.3
4166-25
4.3
88%
76%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.6
-
9Valmiera IIValmiera II2628
27%
1.1
3040-10
2.7
69%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
10JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2527
28%
1.1
2129-8
2.0
56%
28%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.2
-
11Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2623
19%
0.9
3661-25
3.7
85%
58%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.3
-
12SmilteneSmiltene2622
23%
0.8
3167-36
3.8
92%
85%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.6
-
13Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga2218
23%
0.8
2754-27
3.7
82%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.5
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2510
8%
0.4
1578-63
3.7
84%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.1
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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