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JDFS Alberts vs Smiltene Result & Analysis

Date: 07/04/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 3-0
JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts
Vs
64%
19%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Smiltene
Smiltene
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

šŸŽÆ 1. Model Analysis

JDFS Alberts wināœ“ Hit
64.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawāœ— Miss
18.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Smiltene wināœ— Miss
16.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

āš½ 2. Goal Analysis

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L11D03L22D32W22D32W22D10W62WA·BEI02/09H·RĒZ17/09A·RIG24/09H·GRO30/09A·VAL08/10H·RÄŖG22/10A·JFK28/10A·TUK01/11A·SKA04/11H·PRO12/11
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.271.232.381.622.180.94
vs Stronger (25)2.281.122.451.552.140.79
vs Similar (2)0.502.001.001.000.003.00
vs Weaker (3)3.331.673.003.003.501.00
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SmilteneSmiltene

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-711D14L03L11D14L21W07L12L22D45LH·JFK27/08A·SAL03/09H·TUK16/09A·DIN23/09H·BEI01/10A·RĒZ07/10H·RIG22/10H·GRO29/10H·VAL04/11A·RÄŖG12/11
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
3.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.132.401.202.471.072.33
vs Stronger (6)1.502.171.671.671.332.67
vs Similar (16)1.192.311.502.120.882.50
vs Weaker (8)0.752.750.253.751.251.75
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%20%3%07%116%220%320%415%520%6+
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.7%
Under 1.5
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
74.6%
Under 2.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
54.6%
Under 3.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.1%
No
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.9%
3-1
7.7%
1-1
7.6%
2-0
6.8%
3-0 āœ“
5.9%
2-2
5.8%
3-2
5.0%
4-1
5.0%
JDFS Alberts goals ↓
Smiltene goals →
01234
02.7%2.0%1.7%0.8%0.2%
14.6%7.6%4.5%1.9%0.6%
26.8%8.9%5.8%2.5%0.8%
35.9%7.7%5.0%2.2%0.7%
43.8%5.0%3.3%1.4%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = JDFS Alberts goals (down), columns = Smiltene goals (across).

šŸ’Ŗ 3. Team Strengths Analysis

šŸ† Total PPG

Points / game
Super Nova
2.50
RÄ«gas FS II
2.42
JDFS Alberts
2.23
Riga FC II
1.85
Skanste
1.58
Valmiera II
1.31
Mārupe
1.27
Leevon / PPK
1.19
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.15
JFK Ventspils
1.15
Ogre United
1.12
Tukums II
0.73
Smiltene
0.65
Rēzekne FA
0.54
JDFS Alberts is 1.58 points better than Smiltene in terms of average points per game (2.23 vs 0.65).

āš”ļø Attack

Goals scored / game
RÄ«gas FS II
2.73
Super Nova
2.50
Riga FC II
2.27
JDFS Alberts
2.04
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.73
Valmiera II
1.58
Skanste
1.50
Ogre United
1.42
Leevon / PPK
1.38
JFK Ventspils
1.23
Mārupe
0.96
Tukums II
0.96
Smiltene
0.92
Rēzekne FA
0.69
JDFS Alberts is 1.12 goals better than Smiltene in terms of goals scored per game (2.04 vs 0.92).

šŸ›”ļø Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Super Nova
0.42
RÄ«gas FS II
0.69
JDFS Alberts
0.81
Riga FC II
1.00
Skanste
1.08
JFK Ventspils
1.42
Leevon / PPK
1.46
Valmiera II
1.50
Ogre United
1.69
Mārupe
1.69
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.92
Smiltene
2.38
Tukums II
2.62
Rēzekne FA
3.23
JDFS Alberts is 1.58 goals better than Smiltene in terms of goals conceded per game (0.81 vs 2.38).

ā±ļø Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

šŸŽ² 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

šŸ”€ 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

šŸ„… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

āš–ļø 7. Handicap

ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L01L03L12L32W01L20W11D10W40WA·BEI02/09H·RĒZ17/09A·RIG24/09H·GRO30/09A·VAL08/10H·RÄŖG22/10A·JFK28/10A·TUK01/11A·SKA04/11H·PRO12/11
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.601.230.691.180.53
vs Stronger (25)1.160.521.180.731.140.36
vs Similar (2)0.501.501.000.000.003.00
vs Weaker (3)2.000.672.001.002.000.50
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SmilteneSmiltene

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W02L11D01L20W04L00D02L43WH·JFK27/08A·SAL03/09H·TUK16/09A·DIN23/09H·BEI01/10A·RĒZ07/10H·RIG22/10H·GRO29/10H·VAL04/11A·RÄŖG12/11
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.070.601.270.870.87
vs Stronger (6)1.171.501.001.331.331.67
vs Similar (16)0.690.880.620.880.750.88
vs Weaker (8)0.501.120.252.000.750.25
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D10W00D21W12L11D00D22DA·BEI02/09H·RĒZ17/09A·RIG24/09H·GRO30/09A·VAL08/10H·RÄŖG22/10A·JFK28/10A·TUK01/11A·SKA04/11H·PRO12/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.631.150.921.000.41
vs Stronger (25)1.120.601.270.821.000.43
vs Similar (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
vs Weaker (3)1.331.001.002.001.500.50
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SmilteneSmiltene

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W04L01L00D13L01L03L12L20W02LH·JFK27/08A·SAL03/09H·TUK16/09A·DIN23/09H·BEI01/10A·RĒZ07/10H·RIG22/10H·GRO29/10H·VAL04/11A·RÄŖG12/11
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.330.601.200.201.47
vs Stronger (6)0.330.670.670.330.001.00
vs Similar (16)0.501.440.881.250.121.62
vs Weaker (8)0.251.620.001.750.501.50
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ”„ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.590.7%-------āœ“ Hit
Over 2.574.6%-------āœ“ Hit

šŸ’° 14. Squad value

šŸ’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

āš”ļø Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (12)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
L/P (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ›”ļø Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (11)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ¤ 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
3
JA wins
0
Draws
1
SMI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

JDFS Alberts vs Smiltene · H/A from JA
DateH/AGameScore
05/08/23ASmiltene Vs JA1-4
08/04/23HJA Vs Smiltene1-2
05/11/22ASmiltene Vs JA0-1
24/07/22HJA Vs Smiltene6-0

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/11/23HJA Vs Progress / AFA Olaine6-2
04/11/23ASkanste Vs JA0-1
01/11/23ATukums II Vs JA2-2
28/10/23AJFK Ventspils Vs JA2-3
22/10/23HJA Vs RÄ«gas FS II2-2
08/10/23AValmiera II Vs JA2-3
30/09/23HJA Vs Grobiņa2-2
24/09/23ARiga FC II Vs JA3-0
17/09/23HJA Vs Rēzekne FA1-1
02/09/23ABeitar Vs JA1-0

SmilteneSmiltene

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/11/23ARÄ«gas FS II Vs SMI5-4
04/11/23HSMI Vs Valmiera II2-2
29/10/23HSMI Vs Grobiņa1-2
22/10/23HSMI Vs Riga FC II0-7
07/10/23ARēzekne FA Vs SMI1-2
01/10/23HSMI Vs Beitar1-4
23/09/23ADinamo RÄ«ga Vs SMI1-1
16/09/23HSMI Vs Tukums II0-3
03/09/23ASaldus SS/Leevon Vs SMI4-1
27/08/23HSMI Vs JFK Ventspils1-1

šŸ“Š 16. Overall Statistics

JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDWW1.78
HomeLDDDW1.64
AwayLWWDW1.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%40%60%
AVG goals3.103.123.08
Over 1.5 %76%84%68%
Over 2.5 %52%52%52%
Over 3.5 %38%32%44%
Scored1.921.961.88
Conceded1.181.161.20
BTTS56%68%44%
Clean Sheet28%24%32%
Corners---
Cards---
Smiltene
Smiltene
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDL0.68
HomeLLLLD0.72
AwayLLDWL0.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%20%16%
AVG goals4.043.964.12
Over 1.5 %88%92%84%
Over 2.5 %80%84%76%
Over 3.5 %52%56%48%
Scored1.021.120.92
Conceded3.022.843.20
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet10%8%12%
Corners---
Cards---

šŸ† 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ā‚¬mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Super NovaSuper Nova2665
81%
2.5
6511+54
2.9
73%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.50.4
-
2RÄ«gas FS IIRÄ«gas FS II2663
77%
2.4
7118+53
3.4
88%
69%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.70.7
-
3JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2658
73%
2.2
5321+32
2.8
77%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.8
-
4Riga FC IIRiga FC II2648
50%
1.8
5926+33
3.3
77%
65%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.0
-
5SkansteSkanste2641
46%
1.6
3928+11
2.6
58%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6Valmiera IIValmiera II2634
38%
1.3
4139+2
3.1
85%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.5
-
7MārupeMārupe2633
35%
1.3
2544-19
2.7
65%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
8Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK2631
35%
1.2
3638-2
2.8
73%
54%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
9Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2630
31%
1.2
4550-5
3.7
92%
73%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.9
-
10JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2630
31%
1.2
3237-5
2.7
77%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ogre UnitedOgre United2629
27%
1.1
3744-7
3.1
85%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.41.7
-
12Tukums IITukums II2619
19%
0.7
2568-43
3.6
88%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.6
-
13SmilteneSmiltene2617
15%
0.7
2462-38
3.3
92%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.4
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2614
12%
0.5
1884-66
3.9
92%
73%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.2
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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