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JDFS Alberts vs Smiltene Result & Analysis

Date: 29/03/2025
Time: 12:00
Final 2-1
JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts
Vs
62%
22%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Smiltene
Smiltene
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

JDFS Alberts win✓ Hit
61.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Smiltene win✗ Miss
16.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-701L20W01L70W20W30W41W20W02L23LA·SUP24/08H·RIG30/08H·SKA14/09A·RĒZ21/09A·LEE28/09H·RĪG06/10H·TUK19/10H·JFK26/10A·VAL02/11A·PRO10/11
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.170.902.360.642.001.12
vs Stronger (23)2.090.912.360.731.831.08
vs Similar (4)1.750.501.500.002.001.00
vs Weaker (3)3.331.334.001.003.001.50
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SmilteneSmiltene

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W02L02L04L33D00D02L04L03L30WA·TUK25/08H·JFK31/08A·VAL14/09H·PRO21/09H·RĒZ28/09A·MĀR06/10H·OGR19/10H·SUP27/10H·RIG02/11A·SKA10/11
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.032.600.562.881.572.29
vs Stronger (8)1.383.251.003.001.753.50
vs Similar (13)1.081.920.572.571.671.17
vs Weaker (9)0.673.000.203.201.252.75
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.7%
Under 1.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.9%
Under 2.5
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.6%
Under 3.5
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.3%
No
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
2-1 ✓
9.9%
2-0
9.4%
1-0
7.9%
3-1
7.1%
3-0
6.8%
2-2
5.2%
0-0
5.0%
JDFS Alberts goals ↓
Smiltene goals →
01234
05.0%3.4%2.3%0.8%0.2%
17.9%10%4.8%1.7%0.4%
29.4%9.9%5.2%1.8%0.5%
36.8%7.1%3.7%1.3%0.3%
43.6%3.8%2.0%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = JDFS Alberts goals (down), columns = Smiltene goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ogre United
2.23
JDFS Alberts
2.23
Riga Mariners
2.23
JFK Ventspils
1.65
Rīgas FS II
1.58
Skanste
1.54
Leevon / PPK
1.38
Mārupe
1.23
Rēzekne FA
1.19
Smiltene
1.08
Riga FC II
0.92
Tukums II
0.88
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.85
Augšdaugava
0.54
JDFS Alberts is 1.15 points better than Smiltene in terms of average points per game (2.23 vs 1.08).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga Mariners
2.85
Ogre United
2.54
JDFS Alberts
2.31
Smiltene
1.77
Rīgas FS II
1.77
Leevon / PPK
1.54
JFK Ventspils
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.50
Tukums II
1.42
Rēzekne FA
1.38
Skanste
1.38
Riga FC II
1.35
Mārupe
1.15
Augšdaugava
0.73
JDFS Alberts is 0.54 goals better than Smiltene in terms of goals scored per game (2.31 vs 1.77).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Ogre United
0.77
JDFS Alberts
0.92
JFK Ventspils
1.12
Rīgas FS II
1.19
Mārupe
1.27
Riga Mariners
1.31
Skanste
1.50
Leevon / PPK
1.54
Riga FC II
1.65
Smiltene
1.85
Rēzekne FA
2.19
Augšdaugava
2.23
Tukums II
2.31
Progress / AFA Olaine
3.38
JDFS Alberts is 0.92 goals better than Smiltene in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.85).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W01L30W10W20W20W00D00D10WA·SUP24/08H·RIG30/08H·SKA14/09A·RĒZ21/09A·LEE28/09H·RĪG06/10H·TUK19/10H·JFK26/10A·VAL02/11A·PRO10/11
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.301.290.361.000.25
vs Stronger (23)1.130.301.360.450.920.17
vs Similar (4)1.000.250.500.001.500.50
vs Weaker (3)1.330.332.000.001.000.50
Clean sheet %77% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SmilteneSmiltene

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W02L01L03L20W00D01L00D01L10WA·TUK25/08H·JFK31/08A·VAL14/09H·PRO21/09H·RĒZ28/09A·MĀR06/10H·OGR19/10H·SUP27/10H·RIG02/11A·SKA10/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.230.121.311.141.14
vs Stronger (8)0.621.750.001.751.251.75
vs Similar (13)0.690.690.290.861.170.50
vs Weaker (9)0.441.560.001.601.001.50
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W00D40W10W10W21W20W02L13LA·SUP24/08H·RIG30/08H·SKA14/09A·RĒZ21/09A·LEE28/09H·RĪG06/10H·TUK19/10H·JFK26/10A·VAL02/11A·PRO10/11
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.601.070.291.000.88
vs Stronger (23)0.960.611.000.270.920.92
vs Similar (4)0.750.251.000.000.500.50
vs Weaker (3)2.001.002.001.002.001.00
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SmilteneSmiltene

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D01L01L13L00D01L04L02L20WA·TUK25/08H·JFK31/08A·VAL14/09H·PRO21/09H·RĒZ28/09A·MĀR06/10H·OGR19/10H·SUP27/10H·RIG02/11A·SKA10/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.370.441.560.431.14
vs Stronger (8)0.751.501.001.250.501.75
vs Similar (13)0.381.230.291.710.500.67
vs Weaker (9)0.221.440.201.600.251.25
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (27)
€3m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (12)
€2m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (4)
€1m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (11)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
5
JA wins
0
Draws
1
SMI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

JDFS Alberts vs Smiltene · H/A from JA
DateH/AGameScore
03/08/24ASmiltene Vs JA1-2
07/04/24HJA Vs Smiltene3-0
05/08/23ASmiltene Vs JA1-4
08/04/23HJA Vs Smiltene1-2
05/11/22ASmiltene Vs JA0-1
24/07/22HJA Vs Smiltene6-0

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/11/24AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs JA3-2
02/11/24AValmiera II Vs JA2-0
26/10/24HJA Vs JFK Ventspils2-0
19/10/24HJA Vs Tukums II4-1
06/10/24HJA Vs Rīgas FS II3-0
28/09/24ALeevon / PPK Vs JA0-2
21/09/24ARēzekne FA Vs JA0-7
14/09/24HJA Vs Skanste0-1
30/08/24HJA Vs Riga FC II2-0
24/08/24ASuper Nova Vs JA1-0

SmilteneSmiltene

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/11/24ASkanste Vs SMI0-3
02/11/24HSMI Vs Riga FC II0-3
27/10/24HSMI Vs Super Nova0-4
19/10/24HSMI Vs Ogre United0-2
06/10/24AMārupe Vs SMI0-0
28/09/24HSMI Vs Rēzekne FA3-3
21/09/24HSMI Vs Progress / AFA Olaine0-4
14/09/24AValmiera II Vs SMI2-0
31/08/24HSMI Vs JFK Ventspils0-2
25/08/24ATukums II Vs SMI1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLL2.08
HomeWLWWW2.12
AwayLWWLL2.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %64%62%65%
AVG goals3.303.383.23
Over 1.5 %82%88%77%
Over 2.5 %60%58%62%
Over 3.5 %44%42%46%
Scored2.222.332.12
Conceded1.081.041.12
BTTS46%50%42%
Clean Sheet36%38%35%
Corners---
Cards---
Smiltene
Smiltene
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLW0.72
HomeLDLLL0.48
AwayDWLDW0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%12%24%
AVG goals3.563.603.52
Over 1.5 %92%96%88%
Over 2.5 %74%76%72%
Over 3.5 %44%44%44%
Scored1.040.921.16
Conceded2.522.682.36
BTTS46%44%48%
Clean Sheet12%4%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Ogre UnitedOgre United2658
69%
2.2
6620+46
3.3
81%
73%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2112.50.8
-
2Riga MarinersRiga Mariners2658
69%
2.2
7434+40
4.2
92%
81%
65%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.3
-
3JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2658
65%
2.2
6024+36
3.2
81%
54%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.9
-
4JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2643
42%
1.7
4029+11
2.7
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
5Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2641
42%
1.6
4631+15
3.0
85%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
6SkansteSkanste2640
42%
1.5
3639-3
2.9
77%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
7Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK2636
38%
1.4
4040+0
3.1
77%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
8MārupeMārupe2632
38%
1.2
3033-3
2.4
62%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
9Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2631
31%
1.2
3657-21
3.6
85%
69%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
10SmilteneSmiltene2628
31%
1.1
4648-2
3.6
96%
81%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
11Riga FC IIRiga FC II2624
23%
0.9
3543-8
3.0
73%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
12Tukums IITukums II2623
27%
0.9
3760-23
3.7
81%
77%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.3
-
13Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2622
23%
0.8
3988-49
4.9
88%
81%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.53.4
-
14AugšdaugavaAugšdaugava2614
12%
0.5
1958-39
3.0
81%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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