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JDFS Alberts vs Tukums II Result & Analysis

Date: 25/10/2025
Time: 10:00
Final 4-3
JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts
Vs
70%
20%
11%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tukums II
Tukums II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

JDFS Alberts win✓ Hit
69.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tukums II win✗ Miss
10.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-642W21W00D31W22D12L10W61W20W11DA·SMI27/07H·RĪG02/08A·RĒZ09/08A·RIG25/08H·SKA31/08A·MĀR14/09H·LEE20/09A·PRO28/09H·JFK05/10A·OGR18/10
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.400.902.430.572.381.19
vs Stronger (21)2.380.952.500.702.271.18
vs Similar (7)2.290.711.670.002.751.25
vs Weaker (2)3.001.004.001.002.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tukums IITukums II

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-812L01L81W14L07L12L10W04L30W22DH·MĀR27/07A·LEE01/08H·PRO08/08A·JFK22/08H·OGR31/08H·RĒZ13/09A·AUG21/09H·RIG26/09A·SMI05/10H·RĪG20/10
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.232.531.642.290.882.75
vs Stronger (30)1.232.531.642.290.882.75
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%014%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.3%
Under 1.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.7%
Under 2.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.3%
Under 3.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.0%
No
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.6%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.5%
1-1
9.5%
3-0
9.3%
3-1
7.0%
0-0
6.1%
4-0
5.1%
JDFS Alberts goals ↓
Tukums II goals →
01234
06.1%3.1%1.5%0.4%0.1%
111%9.5%3.3%0.8%0.2%
213%9.5%3.6%0.9%0.2%
39.3%7.0%2.6%0.7%0.1%
45.1%3.8%1.5%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = JDFS Alberts goals (down), columns = Tukums II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ogre United
2.23
JDFS Alberts
2.23
Riga Mariners
2.23
JFK Ventspils
1.65
Rīgas FS II
1.58
Skanste
1.54
Leevon / PPK
1.38
Mārupe
1.23
Rēzekne FA
1.19
Smiltene
1.08
Riga FC II
0.92
Tukums II
0.88
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.85
Augšdaugava
0.54
JDFS Alberts is 1.35 points better than Tukums II in terms of average points per game (2.23 vs 0.88).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga Mariners
2.85
Ogre United
2.54
JDFS Alberts
2.31
Smiltene
1.77
Rīgas FS II
1.77
Leevon / PPK
1.54
JFK Ventspils
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.50
Tukums II
1.42
Rēzekne FA
1.38
Skanste
1.38
Riga FC II
1.35
Mārupe
1.15
Augšdaugava
0.73
JDFS Alberts is 0.88 goals better than Tukums II in terms of goals scored per game (2.31 vs 1.42).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Ogre United
0.77
JDFS Alberts
0.92
JFK Ventspils
1.12
Rīgas FS II
1.19
Mārupe
1.27
Riga Mariners
1.31
Skanste
1.50
Leevon / PPK
1.54
Riga FC II
1.65
Smiltene
1.85
Rēzekne FA
2.19
Augšdaugava
2.23
Tukums II
2.31
Progress / AFA Olaine
3.38
JDFS Alberts is 1.38 goals better than Tukums II in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 2.31).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W01L00D20W20W00D00D31W10W00DA·SMI27/07H·RĪG02/08A·RĒZ09/08A·RIG25/08H·SKA31/08A·MĀR14/09H·LEE20/09A·PRO28/09H·JFK05/10A·OGR18/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.231.210.211.060.25
vs Stronger (21)1.140.241.300.301.000.18
vs Similar (7)1.000.140.670.001.250.25
vs Weaker (2)1.500.502.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %77% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tukums IITukums II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W01L50W02L03L11D00D01L10W01LH·MĀR27/07A·LEE01/08H·PRO08/08A·JFK22/08H·OGR31/08H·RĒZ13/09A·AUG21/09H·RIG26/09A·SMI05/10H·RĪG20/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.870.860.790.380.94
vs Stronger (30)0.600.870.860.790.380.94
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W20W00D11D02L12L10W30W10W11DA·SMI27/07H·RĪG02/08A·RĒZ09/08A·RIG25/08H·SKA31/08A·MĀR14/09H·LEE20/09A·PRO28/09H·JFK05/10A·OGR18/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.671.210.361.310.94
vs Stronger (21)1.240.711.200.401.271.00
vs Similar (7)1.290.571.000.001.501.00
vs Weaker (2)1.500.502.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tukums IITukums II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L00D31W12L04L01L10W03L20W21WH·MĀR27/07A·LEE01/08H·PRO08/08A·JFK22/08H·OGR31/08H·RĒZ13/09A·AUG21/09H·RIG26/09A·SMI05/10H·RĪG20/10
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.670.791.500.501.81
vs Stronger (30)0.631.670.791.500.501.81
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (27)
€3m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JDFS Alberts and Tukums II have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (12)
€2m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
JDFS Alberts and Tukums II have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (4)
€1m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (11)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
JDFS Alberts and Tukums II have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
5
JA wins
2
Draws
0
TI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

JDFS Alberts vs Tukums II · H/A from JA
DateH/AGameScore
29/06/25ATukums II Vs JA1-2
19/10/24HJA Vs Tukums II4-1
30/06/24ATukums II Vs JA1-4
01/11/23ATukums II Vs JA2-2
23/04/23HJA Vs Tukums II3-3
29/10/22ATukums II Vs JA0-5
17/07/22HJA Vs Tukums II1-0

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/10/25AOgre United Vs JA1-1
05/10/25HJA Vs JFK Ventspils2-0
28/09/25AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs JA1-6
20/09/25HJA Vs Leevon / PPK1-0
14/09/25AMārupe Vs JA2-1
31/08/25HJA Vs Skanste2-2
25/08/25ARiga FC II Vs JA1-3
09/08/25ARēzekne FA Vs JA0-0
02/08/25HJA Vs Rīgas FS II2-1
27/07/25ASmiltene Vs JA2-4

Tukums IITukums II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/10/25HTI Vs Rīgas FS II2-2
05/10/25ASmiltene Vs TI0-3
26/09/25HTI Vs Riga Mariners0-4
21/09/25AAugšdaugava Vs TI0-1
13/09/25HTI Vs Rēzekne FA1-2
31/08/25HTI Vs Ogre United0-7
22/08/25AJFK Ventspils Vs TI4-1
08/08/25HTI Vs Progress / AFA Olaine8-1
01/08/25ALeevon / PPK Vs TI1-0
27/07/25HTI Vs Mārupe1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWD2.20
HomeDWDWW2.52
AwayDWLWD1.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %68%80%56%
AVG goals3.102.963.24
Over 1.5 %78%72%84%
Over 2.5 %54%52%56%
Over 3.5 %36%32%40%
Scored2.222.322.12
Conceded0.880.641.12
BTTS44%36%52%
Clean Sheet46%56%36%
Corners---
Cards---
Tukums II
Tukums II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWD0.78
HomeWLLLD0.81
AwayLLLWW0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%23%21%
AVG goals3.543.733.33
Over 1.5 %84%96%71%
Over 2.5 %68%77%58%
Over 3.5 %46%46%46%
Scored1.101.350.83
Conceded2.442.382.50
BTTS54%65%42%
Clean Sheet14%8%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Ogre UnitedOgre United2658
69%
2.2
6620+46
3.3
81%
73%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2112.50.8
-
2Riga MarinersRiga Mariners2658
69%
2.2
7434+40
4.2
92%
81%
65%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.3
-
3JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2658
65%
2.2
6024+36
3.2
81%
54%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.9
-
4JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2643
42%
1.7
4029+11
2.7
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
5Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2641
42%
1.6
4631+15
3.0
85%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
6SkansteSkanste2640
42%
1.5
3639-3
2.9
77%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
7Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK2636
38%
1.4
4040+0
3.1
77%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
8MārupeMārupe2632
38%
1.2
3033-3
2.4
62%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
9Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2631
31%
1.2
3657-21
3.6
85%
69%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
10SmilteneSmiltene2628
31%
1.1
4648-2
3.6
96%
81%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
11Riga FC IIRiga FC II2624
23%
0.9
3543-8
3.0
73%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
12Tukums IITukums II2623
27%
0.9
3760-23
3.7
81%
77%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.3
-
13Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2622
23%
0.8
3988-49
4.9
88%
81%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.53.4
-
14AugšdaugavaAugšdaugava2614
12%
0.5
1958-39
3.0
81%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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