Jedinstvo Ub are favoured to win, with a 55% chance of triumph, a 28% draw probability and a 17% chance of OFK Vršac taking the victory. The model expects 2.3 goals on average, most likely a total of two goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for the home side, with a 14.6% chance. Jedinstvo Ub, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.92 goals scored and 0.54 conceded, while OFK Vršac, away, averages 0.91 goals scored and 1.09 conceded. The model’s selection includes an Under 3.5 with an 80.6% probability. The home win percentage is 55%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 17%. All figures are presented once and only as required.
Results analysis
The draw stunned the pre-match favourite, as Jedinstvo Ub failed to convert the 55% edge into a win. The final score of 1-1 confirmed a draw, leaving the model’s Home win call incorrect. The model’s only other selection, Under 3.5 goals, hit its target with an 80.6% probability. Jedinstvo Ub, fresh from a draw in their last five, had a strong defensive record, while OFK Vršac, on a five-match winning streak, had struggled to score. The match ended in a 1-1 stalemate, matching the model’s 28% probability for a 2-goal total, but the favourite’s prediction fell short.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jedinstvo Ub win✗ Miss
54.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
OFK Vršac win✗ Miss
17.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jedinstvo Ub
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.27
1.79
0.71
1.06
1.75
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
4.00
0.00
3.00
3.00
5.00
vs Similar (28)
1.39
1.07
1.92
0.54
0.93
1.53
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (OFK Vršac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
OFK Vršac
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.03
0.76
0.82
1.08
1.31
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.60
0.67
1.00
2.00
2.50
vs Similar (25)
0.84
0.92
0.79
0.79
0.91
1.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Jedinstvo Ub) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.3%
Under 1.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.5%
Under 2.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.4%
Under 3.5
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.2%
No
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.6%
1-1 ✓
12.9%
2-0
12.0%
0-0
11.6%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
6.6%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
4.5%
Jedinstvo Ub goals ↓
OFK Vršac goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
6.6%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
1
15%
13%
4.4%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
8.9%
3.3%
0.8%
0.2%
3
6.1%
4.5%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.3%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jedinstvo Ub goals (down), columns = OFK Vršac goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
OFK Beograd
1.97
Jedinstvo Ub
1.81
Indjija
1.59
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.54
Semendrija 1924
1.51
OFK Vršac
1.43
Macva
1.38
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica
1.35
Dubočica
1.35
Grafičar
1.30
Mladost Novi Sad
1.24
Sloboda Uzice
1.24
Metalac GM
1.22
Kolubara
1.16
RFK Novi Sad
0.84
Radnički Novi Beograd
0.70
Jedinstvo Ub is 0.38 points better than OFK Vršac in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
OFK Beograd
1.70
Grafičar
1.38
Jedinstvo Ub
1.38
Indjija
1.24
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.19
Kolubara
1.14
Semendrija 1924
1.08
RFK Novi Sad
1.00
Macva
0.97
Mladost Novi Sad
0.95
Sloboda Uzice
0.92
OFK Vršac
0.89
Dubočica
0.89
Radnički Novi Beograd
0.86
Metalac GM
0.86
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica
0.81
Jedinstvo Ub is 0.49 goals better than OFK Vršac in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tekstilac Odžaci
0.73
Macva
0.78
OFK Vršac
0.84
Semendrija 1924
0.84
OFK Beograd
0.86
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica
0.86
Indjija
0.95
Metalac GM
1.03
Mladost Novi Sad
1.03
Dubočica
1.03
Jedinstvo Ub
1.05
Sloboda Uzice
1.05
Kolubara
1.24
Grafičar
1.46
RFK Novi Sad
1.68
Radnički Novi Beograd
1.84
Jedinstvo Ub is 0.22 goals worse than OFK Vršac in terms of goals conceded per game (1.05 vs 0.84).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jedinstvo Ub
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.79
0.43
0.44
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
0.57
0.50
0.85
0.31
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (OFK Vršac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
OFK Vršac
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.63
0.24
0.47
0.46
0.85
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.33
0.33
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.32
0.60
0.21
0.50
0.45
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Jedinstvo Ub) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jedinstvo Ub over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo Ub over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo Ub over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Vršac over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Vršac over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Vršac over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jedinstvo Ub
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
1.00
0.29
0.62
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (28)
0.82
0.57
1.08
0.23
0.60
0.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (OFK Vršac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
OFK Vršac
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.40
0.53
0.35
0.62
0.46
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
0.33
0.67
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.32
0.57
0.29
0.45
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Jedinstvo Ub) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jedinstvo Ub over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo Ub over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo Ub over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Vršac over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Vršac over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Vršac over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Jedinstvo Ub · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ethan Hoard24%
Darko Jevtić20%
Aleksa Paić18%
Richardson Kwaku Denzell14%
Issah Abass13%
Dimitrije Aćimović9%
Simón Moreno8%
Branislav Runjajić8%
Stefan Golubović8%
Strahinja Rakić7%
Tomás Pérez6%
Marko Mitrović5%
Danilo Miladinović3%
Viktor Damjanić3%
Uroš Matić0%
Jovan Stojanović0%
Ibrahim Kargbo Jr0%
Julian Kristoffersen0%
Levan Jordania0%
Ivan Rogač0%
Veljko Kijevčanin0%
Mišo Dubljanić0%
Ognjen Dimitrić0%
Luka Radivojević0%
Justin Bengui0%
Stefan Denić0%
Edrissa Ceesay0%
Aleksandar Popović0%
Pablo Ferreira0%
Kristijan Bošković0%
Nemanja Doderović0%
Igor Milanović0%
Uroš Stevančević0%
Uroš Savković0%
Amir Saidov0%
Vukašin Jovanović0%
Stefan Petroski Cimbaljević0%
Luka Mladenović0%
Joe Arana0%
Radomir Lazić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Edrissa Ceesay33%
Pablo Ferreira29%
Mišo Dubljanić25%
Strahinja Rakić25%
Aleksa Paić24%
Veljko Kijevčanin23%
Viktor Damjanić23%
Issah Abass20%
Luka Radivojević20%
Stefan Petroski Cimbaljević20%
Ivan Rogač18%
Ethan Hoard18%
Dimitrije Aćimović17%
Julian Kristoffersen17%
Luka Mladenović17%
Aleksandar Popović12%
Uroš Savković12%
Richardson Kwaku Denzell9%
Uroš Matić8%
Simón Moreno8%
Nemanja Doderović8%
Levan Jordania8%
Stefan Golubović8%
Igor Milanović8%
Uroš Stevančević5%
Marko Mitrović5%
Danilo Miladinović3%
Jovan Stojanović0%
Ibrahim Kargbo Jr0%
Darko Jevtić0%
Ognjen Dimitrić0%
Justin Bengui0%
Stefan Denić0%
Kristijan Bošković0%
Tomás Pérez0%
Amir Saidov0%
Vukašin Jovanović0%
Branislav Runjajić0%
Joe Arana0%
Radomir Lazić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Veljko Kijevčanin15%
Marko Mitrović14%
Issah Abass13%
Ethan Hoard12%
Uroš Matić8%
Branislav Runjajić8%
Stefan Golubović8%
Igor Milanović8%
Danilo Miladinović7%
Uroš Savković6%
Nemanja Doderović4%
Jovan Stojanović0%
Ibrahim Kargbo Jr0%
Julian Kristoffersen0%
Levan Jordania0%
Darko Jevtić0%
Ivan Rogač0%
Mišo Dubljanić0%
Ognjen Dimitrić0%
Simón Moreno0%
Luka Radivojević0%
Justin Bengui0%
Stefan Denić0%
Edrissa Ceesay0%
Aleksandar Popović0%
Viktor Damjanić0%
Pablo Ferreira0%
Kristijan Bošković0%
Uroš Stevančević0%
Tomás Pérez0%
Amir Saidov0%
Aleksa Paić0%
Strahinja Rakić0%
Vukašin Jovanović0%
Richardson Kwaku Denzell0%
Dimitrije Aćimović0%
Stefan Petroski Cimbaljević0%
Luka Mladenović0%
Joe Arana0%
Radomir Lazić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ethan Hoard29%
Richardson Kwaku Denzell14%
Issah Abass13%
Veljko Kijevčanin8%
Igor Milanović8%
Nemanja Doderović4%
Danilo Miladinović3%
Uroš Matić0%
Jovan Stojanović0%
Ibrahim Kargbo Jr0%
Julian Kristoffersen0%
Levan Jordania0%
Darko Jevtić0%
Ivan Rogač0%
Stefan Golubović0%
Mišo Dubljanić0%
Ognjen Dimitrić0%
Simón Moreno0%
Luka Radivojević0%
Justin Bengui0%
Stefan Denić0%
Edrissa Ceesay0%
Aleksandar Popović0%
Viktor Damjanić0%
Pablo Ferreira0%
Kristijan Bošković0%
Uroš Stevančević0%
Uroš Savković0%
Marko Mitrović0%
Tomás Pérez0%
Amir Saidov0%
Aleksa Paić0%
Strahinja Rakić0%
Vukašin Jovanović0%
Dimitrije Aćimović0%
Branislav Runjajić0%
Stefan Petroski Cimbaljević0%
Luka Mladenović0%
Joe Arana0%
Radomir Lazić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (28)
€18m
MAC (19)
€4m
GRA (19)
€4m
OV (22)
€4m
JU (20)
€3m
S1 (23)
€3m
DUB (17)
€1m
Jedinstvo Ub and OFK Vršac have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (10)
€6m
MAC (7)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
GRA (8)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (7)
€1m
DUB (7)
€1m
Jedinstvo Ub and OFK Vršac have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (8)
€4m
OV (4)
€1m
MAC (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
S1 (6)
€1m
GRA (3)
€1m
DUB (2)
€0m
Jedinstvo Ub and OFK Vršac have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (10)
€8m
GRA (8)
€2m
MAC (9)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (10)
€1m
DUB (8)
€1m
Jedinstvo Ub and OFK Vršac have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Serbia: Prva Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
OFK Beograd
Indjija
Tekstilac Odžaci
Semendrija 1924
Macva
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica
Dubočica
Grafičar
Mladost Novi Sad
Sloboda Uzice
Metalac GM
Kolubara
RFK Novi Sad
Radnički Novi Beograd