The contest between Jedinstvo and Mogren is a razor-thin affair, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 34% and 35% respectively, while a draw is 31%. The average goal tally is 2.3, and the most probable total is two goals, with a 28% chance. The single score most likely to materialise is 1-1, which carries a 14.6% probability.
Jedinstvo, playing at home against a stronger side, averages only 0.4 goals scored and concedes one per match. Mogren, on the road against a weaker opponent, nets three goals on average and gives up just 0.5. The recent form tells a story of a team that has recovered from a loss: Jedinstvo’s last five are LLWWW after a 0-2 defeat to Kom, whereas Mogren’s last three are WLW, having just beaten Rudar 3-0.
The model’s selections are overwhelmingly low-scoring: Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.2%), Under 5.5 (97.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.0%), Under 4.5 (91.8%), Home under 2.5 goals (89.3%) and Away under 2.5 goals (88.9%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jedinstvo win
34.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mogren win
34.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jedinstvo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.40
0.69
1.00
0.93
1.86
vs Stronger (12)
0.83
1.83
0.40
1.00
1.14
2.43
vs Similar (15)
0.73
1.00
0.67
0.89
0.83
1.17
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.67
1.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Mogren) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mogren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Jedinstvo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
68.0%
Under 1.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.1%
Under 2.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.8%
Under 3.5
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.8%
No
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.5%
0-1
10.4%
1-0
10.2%
1-2
7.7%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
6.5%
Jedinstvo goals ↓
Mogren goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
10%
6.8%
2.6%
0.7%
1
10%
15%
7.7%
2.9%
0.9%
2
6.5%
7.5%
4.3%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.5%
2.8%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jedinstvo goals (down), columns = Mogren goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Jedinstvo
2.36
Grbalj
1.86
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.78
Kom
1.39
Berane
1.39
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.34
Lovćen
1.33
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.31
Mogren
1.25
Zeta
1.00
Jedinstvo is 1.11 points better than Mogren in terms of average points per game (2.36 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Jedinstvo
2.18
Grbalj
1.75
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.42
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.42
Kom
1.31
Berane
1.25
Mogren
1.16
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.08
Lovćen
0.94
Zeta
0.50
Jedinstvo is 1.03 goals better than Mogren in terms of goals scored per game (2.18 vs 1.16).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Zeta
0.50
Jedinstvo
0.73
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.94
Berane
1.00
Grbalj
1.17
Kom
1.19
Lovćen
1.25
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.28
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.29
Mogren
1.39
Jedinstvo is 0.65 goals better than Mogren in terms of goals conceded per game (0.73 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jedinstvo or Draw
65.1%
Avg Implied -
34%
31%
35%
covers Jedinstvo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo or Mogren
68.9%
Avg Implied -
34%
31%
35%
covers Jedinstvo + Mogren
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Mogren
66.0%
Avg Implied -
34%
31%
35%
covers Draw + Mogren
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jedinstvo over/under 0.5
Over
67.8%
Under
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo over/under 1.5
Over
31.3%
Under
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo over/under 2.5
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 0.5
Over
68.5%
Under
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 1.5
Over
32.1%
Under
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 2.5
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Jedinstvo, so a minus line means Jedinstvo give that many goals of a start and Mogren receive them. At -1, Jedinstvo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jedinstvo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jedinstvo)
Jedinstvo -2
4.5%
Draw -2
9.9%
Mogren +2
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Jedinstvo)
Jedinstvo -1
14.4%
Draw -1
19.5%
Mogren +1
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Jedinstvo)
Jedinstvo +1
65.1%
Draw +1
19.9%
Mogren -1
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Jedinstvo)
Jedinstvo +2
85.0%
Draw +2
10.2%
Mogren -2
4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jedinstvo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.57
0.06
0.31
0.50
0.86
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.75
0.00
0.40
0.71
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.20
0.33
0.11
0.11
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Mogren) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mogren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Jedinstvo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jedinstvo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jedinstvo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.83
0.62
0.69
0.43
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.08
0.40
0.60
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.67
0.56
0.78
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Mogren) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mogren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.67
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Jedinstvo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jedinstvo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Montenegro: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Mladost Lješkopolje
Zeta
Lovćen
Grbalj
Kom
Iskra (Montenegro)
Rudar (Montenegro)
Berane