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Jezero vs Dečić Result & Analysis

Date: 25/05/2023
Time: 16:00
Final 2-1
Jezero
Jezero
Vs
35%
39%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dečić
Dečić
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Jezero win✓ Hit
35.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
39.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dečić win✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

JezeroJezero

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D00D01L12L21W01L01L20W31WA·DEČ01/04A·RUD05/04H·SUT09/04A·ARS15/04A·JED19/04H·JED23/04A·PET29/04A·MOR07/05H·ISK14/05A·BUD21/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.000.790.500.881.44
vs Stronger (7)1.141.290.500.502.002.33
vs Similar (20)0.800.951.000.560.641.27
vs Weaker (3)0.330.670.000.000.501.00
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DečićDečić

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D11D11D31W43W30W00D03L00D20WA·JED18/03H·JEZ01/04H·MOR05/04A·ISK09/04H·BUD15/04H·PET23/04A·RUD29/04H·SUT07/05A·ARS14/05H·JED21/05
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.071.251.250.710.86
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)1.041.261.311.460.701.00
vs Weaker (7)0.860.431.000.330.750.50
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

8%16%24%31%24%031%126%212%34%41%50%6+
The model estimates around 1.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (31%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
44.4%
Under 1.5
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
18.3%
Under 2.5
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
6.2%
Under 3.5
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
27.9%
No
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
24.3%
1-0
17.6%
0-1
13.8%
1-1
13.5%
2-0
7.7%
2-1 ✓
5.0%
0-2
4.9%
1-2
4.0%
Jezero goals ↓
Dečić goals →
01234
024%14%4.9%1.1%0.2%
118%13%4.0%0.9%0.1%
27.7%5.0%1.6%0.4%0.1%
32.1%1.4%0.4%0.1%0.0%
40.4%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jezero goals (down), columns = Dečić goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Buducnost Podgorica
1.94
Sutjeska
1.94
Arsenal Tivat
1.39
Dečić
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.31
Mornar
1.26
Petrovac
1.25
Jezero
1.19
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.11
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.86
Kom
0.50
Berane
0.00
Jezero is 0.19 points worse than Dečić in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.39).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sutjeska
2.08
Buducnost Podgorica
1.69
Petrovac
1.39
Dečić
1.22
Jedinstvo
1.19
Arsenal Tivat
1.08
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.03
Kom
1.00
Jezero
0.97
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.92
Mornar
0.89
Berane
0.00
Jezero is 0.25 goals worse than Dečić in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.22).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sutjeska
0.94
Buducnost Podgorica
1.03
Dečić
1.03
Jezero
1.06
Mornar
1.08
Arsenal Tivat
1.08
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.50
Kom
1.50
Petrovac
1.58
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.61
Berane
2.00
Jezero is 0.03 goals worse than Dečić in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.03).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JezeroJezero

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D00D01L01L10W00D00D10W00DA·DEČ01/04A·RUD05/04H·SUT09/04A·ARS15/04A·JED19/04H·JED23/04A·PET29/04A·MOR07/05H·ISK14/05A·BUD21/05
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.430.290.140.250.69
vs Stronger (7)0.290.430.000.250.670.67
vs Similar (20)0.300.450.440.110.180.73
vs Weaker (3)0.000.330.000.000.000.50
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DečićDečić

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W20W11D20W00D02L00D20WA·JED18/03H·JEZ01/04H·MOR05/04A·ISK09/04H·BUD15/04H·PET23/04A·RUD29/04H·SUT07/05A·ARS14/05H·JED21/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.430.560.560.290.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.430.520.540.690.300.30
vs Weaker (7)0.430.140.670.000.250.25
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jezero over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

JezeroJezero

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D00D00D11D11D01L01L10W31WA·DEČ01/04A·RUD05/04H·SUT09/04A·ARS15/04A·JED19/04H·JED23/04A·PET29/04A·MOR07/05H·ISK14/05A·BUD21/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.570.500.360.620.75
vs Stronger (7)0.860.860.500.251.331.67
vs Similar (20)0.500.500.560.440.450.55
vs Weaker (3)0.330.330.000.000.500.50
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DečićDečić

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D01L11D32W10W00D01L00D00DA·JED18/03H·JEZ01/04H·MOR05/04A·ISK09/04H·BUD15/04H·PET23/04A·RUD29/04H·SUT07/05A·ARS14/05H·JED21/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.630.690.690.430.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.610.740.770.770.400.70
vs Weaker (7)0.430.290.330.330.500.25
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jezero over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.593.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 2.581.7%-------✗ Miss
BTTS No72.1%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
Jezero's squad is €2m less valuable than Dečić's (€1m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Jezero and Dečić have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
AT (4)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
Jezero and Dečić have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
JED (10)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
Jezero's defence is €1m less valuable than Dečić's (€1m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
JEZ wins
3
Draws
0
DEČ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Jezero vs Dečić · H/A from JEZ
DateH/AGameScore
01/04/23ADečić Vs JEZ1-1
03/12/22HJEZ Vs Dečić0-0
17/09/22ADečić Vs JEZ1-1

JezeroJezero

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/23ABuducnost Podgorica Vs JEZ1-3
14/05/23HJEZ Vs Iskra (Montenegro)2-0
07/05/23AMornar Vs JEZ1-0
29/04/23APetrovac Vs JEZ1-0
23/04/23HJEZ Vs Jedinstvo2-1
19/04/23AJedinstvo Vs JEZ2-1
15/04/23AArsenal Tivat Vs JEZ1-0
09/04/23HJEZ Vs Sutjeska0-0
05/04/23ARudar (Montenegro) Vs JEZ0-0
01/04/23ADečić Vs JEZ1-1

DečićDečić

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/23HDEČ Vs Jedinstvo2-0
14/05/23AArsenal Tivat Vs DEČ0-0
07/05/23HDEČ Vs Sutjeska0-3
29/04/23ARudar (Montenegro) Vs DEČ0-0
23/04/23HDEČ Vs Petrovac3-0
15/04/23HDEČ Vs Buducnost Podgorica4-3
09/04/23AIskra (Montenegro) Vs DEČ1-3
05/04/23HDEČ Vs Mornar1-1
01/04/23HDEČ Vs Jezero1-1
18/03/23AJedinstvo Vs DEČ0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Jezero
Jezero
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWW1.14
HomeDLDWW1.71
AwayLLLLW0.61
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%41%11%
AVG goals2.001.712.28
Over 1.5 %60%53%67%
Over 2.5 %40%35%44%
Over 3.5 %14%18%11%
Scored0.941.060.83
Conceded1.060.651.44
BTTS51%41%61%
Clean Sheet31%53%11%
Corners---
Cards---
Dečić
Dečić
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 4 Wins / 5 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLDW1.38
HomeDWWLW1.42
AwayDDWDD1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%37%28%
AVG goals2.242.741.72
Over 1.5 %68%79%56%
Over 2.5 %41%47%33%
Over 3.5 %16%21%11%
Scored1.221.530.89
Conceded1.031.210.83
BTTS49%53%44%
Clean Sheet35%32%39%
Corners10.0011.009.00
Cards4.003.005.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SutjeskaSutjeska3670
56%
1.9
7534+41
3.0
86%
64%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.10.9
-
2Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3670
56%
1.9
6137+24
2.7
75%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.71.0
-
3DečićDečić3650
33%
1.4
4437+7
2.2
67%
42%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.0
-
4Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3650
36%
1.4
3939+0
2.2
58%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.11.1
-
5MornarMornar3848
34%
1.3
3441-7
2.0
53%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.1
-
6JedinstvoJedinstvo3647
36%
1.3
4354-11
2.7
69%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.5
-
7PetrovacPetrovac3645
31%
1.2
5057-7
3.0
78%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.41.6
-
8JezeroJezero3643
28%
1.2
3538-3
2.0
61%
42%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.1
-
9Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)3842
26%
1.1
3953-14
2.4
63%
50%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
10Iskra (Montenegro)Iskra (Montenegro)3631
19%
0.9
3358-25
2.5
78%
58%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.6
-
11KomKom21
0%
0.5
23-1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
12BeraneBerane20
0%
0.0
04-4
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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