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Jezero vs Mornar Result & Analysis

Date: 24/05/2026
Time: 18:00
Final 0-2
Jezero
Jezero
Vs
34%
32%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mornar
Mornar
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Jezero a 34% win probability against Mornar in the Montenegro: First League on 2026-05-24, with 32% for the draw and 33% for Mornar. The model estimates around 2.2 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (83%).

Results analysis

Jezero finished 0-2 against Mornar (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 34% home win, 32% draw and 33% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (83%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Jezero win✗ Miss
34.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mornar win✓ Hit
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

JezeroJezero

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L02L02L11D20W11D00D03L22D02LH·JED21/03A·MOR04/04A·BUD08/04H·PET12/04A·BOK18/04A·SUT26/04H·ARS02/05A·DEČ10/05H·MLA16/05A·JED20/05
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.271.291.000.751.50
vs Stronger (20)1.051.401.561.110.641.64
vs Similar (10)0.901.000.800.801.001.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MornarMornar

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W20W21W10W10W21W30W00D00D11DA·PET21/03H·JEZ04/04H·SUT08/04A·ARS12/04H·DEČ18/04A·MLA26/04H·JED02/05H·BOK10/05A·BUD16/05H·PET20/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.631.690.561.140.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.380.521.450.361.300.70
vs Weaker (9)1.560.892.201.000.750.75
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%022%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.8%
Under 1.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
36.5%
Under 2.5
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.2%
Under 3.5
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.8%
No
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
12.9%
1-0
11.3%
0-1
11.0%
2-1
7.3%
1-2
7.2%
2-0
6.8%
0-2 ✓
6.6%
Jezero goals ↓
Mornar goals →
01234
013%11%6.6%2.4%0.6%
111%15%7.2%2.6%0.7%
26.8%7.3%3.9%1.4%0.4%
32.5%2.6%1.4%0.5%0.1%
40.7%0.7%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jezero goals (down), columns = Mornar goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sutjeska
2.00
Mornar
1.92
Petrovac
1.42
Dečić
1.42
Buducnost Podgorica
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Mladost DG
1.28
Jezero
1.24
Bokelj
1.05
Jedinstvo
0.97
Grbalj
0.50
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.00
Jezero is 0.68 points worse than Mornar in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.92).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sutjeska
1.69
Mornar
1.42
Mladost DG
1.36
Petrovac
1.22
Jezero
1.21
Dečić
1.19
Bokelj
1.05
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
1.00
Jedinstvo
0.83
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.50
Grbalj
0.00
Jezero is 0.21 goals worse than Mornar in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.42).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Mornar
0.81
Buducnost Podgorica
0.97
Grbalj
1.00
Petrovac
1.00
Sutjeska
1.00
Dečić
1.25
Bokelj
1.26
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Jezero
1.29
Jedinstvo
1.36
Mladost DG
1.50
Iskra (Montenegro)
4.00
Jezero is 0.48 goals worse than Mornar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 0.81).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.582.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BP (5)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Jezero vs Mornar · H/A from JEZ
DateH/AGameScore
04/04/26AMornar Vs JEZ2-0
06/12/25HJEZ Vs Mornar2-1
27/09/25AMornar Vs JEZ2-2
12/04/25AMornar Vs JEZ0-1
22/02/25HJEZ Vs Mornar1-2
06/10/24AMornar Vs JEZ2-0
18/09/24HJEZ Vs Mornar2-2
25/05/24AMornar Vs JEZ1-0

JezeroJezero

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/05/26AJedinstvo Vs JEZ2-0
16/05/26HJEZ Vs Mladost DG2-2
10/05/26ADečić Vs JEZ3-0
02/05/26HJEZ Vs Arsenal Tivat0-0
26/04/26ASutjeska Vs JEZ1-1
18/04/26ABokelj Vs JEZ0-2
12/04/26HJEZ Vs Petrovac1-1
08/04/26ABuducnost Podgorica Vs JEZ2-0
04/04/26AMornar Vs JEZ2-0
21/03/26HJEZ Vs Jedinstvo0-1

MornarMornar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/05/26HMOR Vs Petrovac1-1
16/05/26ABuducnost Podgorica Vs MOR0-0
10/05/26HMOR Vs Bokelj0-0
02/05/26HMOR Vs Jedinstvo3-0
26/04/26AMladost DG Vs MOR1-2
18/04/26HMOR Vs Dečić1-0
12/04/26AArsenal Tivat Vs MOR0-1
08/04/26HMOR Vs Sutjeska2-1
04/04/26HMOR Vs Jezero2-0
21/03/26APetrovac Vs MOR0-2

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Jezero
Jezero
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLDL1.34
HomeLLDDD1.48
AwayLWDLL1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%36%32%
AVG goals2.382.522.24
Over 1.5 %74%80%68%
Over 2.5 %42%44%40%
Over 3.5 %20%24%16%
Scored1.161.400.92
Conceded1.221.121.32
BTTS52%60%44%
Clean Sheet28%32%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Mornar
Mornar
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDD1.62
HomeWWWDD1.84
AwayWWWWD1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%52%40%
AVG goals2.362.362.36
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %46%48%44%
Over 3.5 %14%20%8%
Scored1.281.521.04
Conceded1.080.841.32
BTTS46%48%44%
Clean Sheet36%40%32%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SutjeskaSutjeska3672
61%
2.0
6136+25
2.7
72%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.71.0
-
2MornarMornar3669
56%
1.9
5129+22
2.2
69%
50%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.40.8
-
3PetrovacPetrovac3651
36%
1.4
4436+8
2.2
67%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
4DečićDečić3651
39%
1.4
4345-2
2.4
64%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.2
-
5Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3648
36%
1.3
3635+1
2.0
61%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.01.0
-
6JezeroJezero3847
32%
1.2
4649-3
2.5
79%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
7Mladost DGMladost DG3646
39%
1.3
4954-5
2.9
64%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
8Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3646
33%
1.3
3646-10
2.3
64%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
9BokeljBokelj3840
24%
1.1
4048-8
2.3
68%
39%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
-
10JedinstvoJedinstvo3635
25%
1.0
3049-19
2.2
58%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.4
-
11GrbaljGrbalj21
0%
0.5
02-2
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
12Iskra (Montenegro)Iskra (Montenegro)20
0%
0.0
18-7
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.54.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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