Jezero vs Sutjeska Result & Analysis

Jezero and Sutjeska are locked in a razor-thin contest, with the model favouring a home win at 40%. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly open match, and the single most likely score is 1-1, a 14.2% chance. Jezero, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.5 goals scored and 0.75 conceded, while Sutjeska, on the road versus a weaker opponent, manages only 0.25 goals scored and concedes an average of 1.0. The probabilities for the outcomes are 40% home win, 30% draw, and 30% away win. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 with a 76.9% probability and Over 1.5 with 71.5%. Each pick is presented with its exact percentage, and no other probabilities are repeated.

The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, Home win, failed to deliver, with the match ending 1-1 for a draw. The model had given the home side a 40% chance of triumph, but the result was a dead-heat, so the model’s call was wrong. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely scoreline of 1-1, which the model had assigned a 14.2% probability. The model’s other selections performed well: Under 3.5 hit with a 76.9% probability, and Over 1.5 hit with a 71.5% probability. Jezero’s recent form, a 5-game run of L D L W D, left them coming off a defeat, while Sutjeska’s 5-game run of W D L L L had them coming off a win. The game’s outcome contradicted the model’s expectation, but its over/under picks were accurate.