JFK Ventspils vs JDFS Alberts Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with a 45% chance of JDFS Alberts taking the points and a 27% chance of JFK Ventspils winning. A draw sits just behind at 28%. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly open game, with the most likely total number of goals being 2, a 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.5% chance. Home side JFK Ventspils, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded. Away side JDFS Alberts, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 1.77 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 with a 74.5% probability and Under 3.5 with a 73.5% probability. The home win percentage is 27%, the draw 28%, and the away win 45%.

The updated form storyline shows JFK Ventspils coming off a draw while JDFS Alberts hit a three-game winning run, setting the stage for a decisive away victory. The model’s pre-match favourite, an away win with a 45% probability, proved correct, as the final score of 0-2 confirmed the actual result. The model’s selections also performed well: Over 1.5, with a 74.5% probability, hit, and Under 3.5, at 73.5%, also hit. The most likely scoreline of 1-1, with a 13.5% chance, did not materialise, but the overall predictions aligned closely with the match outcome.