JFK Ventspils vs Rēzekne FA Result & Analysis

JFK Ventspils are the clear favourite, with the model rating a 68% chance of a home win, a 21% draw and only 11% for Rēzekne FA. The prediction hinges on Ventspils’ strong home form against weaker opposition, where they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, versus Rēzekne’s away struggles against stronger teams, scoring only 0.5 and conceding 4.0. The expected total is 2.9 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0, with a 12.8% chance. The model’s selection includes an over 1.5 goal pick at 78.7%. Ventspils’ recent draw against Riga FC II and Rēzekne’s five-match losing streak, highlighted by a 1-6 loss to Valmiera / BSS, reinforce the home side’s advantage. The forecasted result is a home win, and the over 1.5 goal selection carries a high probability of success.

The win extends JFK Ventspils’ recent form, turning a draw into a decisive victory. The final score was 4-0, confirming the home win that the model predicted with a 68% probability. The pre-match favourite, Home win, proved correct. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5, hit with a 78.7% chance. All other suggested picks were settled, and each outcome matched the recorded result. The match lived up to the model’s expectations, with the favoured result landing and the selections largely coming in.