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JFK Ventspils vs Riga Mariners Result & Analysis

Date: 13/09/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 1-2
JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils
Vs
35%
24%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Riga Mariners
Riga Mariners
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

JFK Ventspils win✗ Miss
34.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners win✓ Hit
41.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D22D22D21W00D50W11D03L41W20WH·JDF25/05A·RIG13/06H·SKA28/06A·MĀR05/07H·LEE19/07H·PRO26/07H·RĒZ02/08A·OGR09/08H·TUK22/08A·AUG30/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.002.000.871.331.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.531.331.861.291.251.38
vs Weaker (15)1.800.672.120.501.430.86
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Riga MarinersRiga Mariners

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-651W52W31W31W42W00D32W31W32W60WA·AUG24/05A·RĒZ14/06H·SMI28/06A·RĪG05/07H·JDF18/07H·RIG26/07A·SKA02/08H·MĀR09/08A·LEE22/08H·PRO30/08
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
3.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.891.172.501.003.381.38
vs Stronger (9)2.891.222.601.203.251.25
vs Similar (8)2.751.252.001.003.501.50
vs Weaker (1)4.000.004.000.00--
Clean sheet %22% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.6%
Under 1.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.7%
Under 2.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.9%
Under 3.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.1%
No
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
1-2 ✓
8.5%
2-1
7.8%
2-2
7.0%
0-2
5.2%
1-3
5.1%
0-1
4.8%
1-0
4.3%
JFK Ventspils goals ↓
Riga Mariners goals →
01234
04.2%4.8%5.2%3.1%1.4%
14.3%10%8.5%5.1%2.3%
24.3%7.8%7.0%4.2%1.9%
32.4%4.2%3.8%2.3%1.0%
41.0%1.7%1.6%0.9%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = JFK Ventspils goals (down), columns = Riga Mariners goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ogre United
2.23
JDFS Alberts
2.23
Riga Mariners
2.23
JFK Ventspils
1.65
Rīgas FS II
1.58
Skanste
1.54
Leevon / PPK
1.38
Mārupe
1.23
Rēzekne FA
1.19
Smiltene
1.08
Riga FC II
0.92
Tukums II
0.88
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.85
Augšdaugava
0.54
JFK Ventspils is 0.58 points worse than Riga Mariners in terms of average points per game (1.65 vs 2.23).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga Mariners
2.85
Ogre United
2.54
JDFS Alberts
2.31
Smiltene
1.77
Rīgas FS II
1.77
Leevon / PPK
1.54
JFK Ventspils
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.50
Tukums II
1.42
Rēzekne FA
1.38
Skanste
1.38
Riga FC II
1.35
Mārupe
1.15
Augšdaugava
0.73
JFK Ventspils is 1.31 goals worse than Riga Mariners in terms of goals scored per game (1.54 vs 2.85).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Ogre United
0.77
JDFS Alberts
0.92
JFK Ventspils
1.12
Rīgas FS II
1.19
Mārupe
1.27
Riga Mariners
1.31
Skanste
1.50
Leevon / PPK
1.54
Riga FC II
1.65
Smiltene
1.85
Rēzekne FA
2.19
Augšdaugava
2.23
Tukums II
2.31
Progress / AFA Olaine
3.38
JFK Ventspils is 0.19 goals better than Riga Mariners in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.31).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L12L01L10W00D30W10W01L20W00DH·JDF25/05A·RIG13/06H·SKA28/06A·MĀR05/07H·LEE19/07H·PRO26/07H·RĒZ02/08A·OGR09/08H·TUK22/08A·AUG30/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.370.870.270.470.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.670.530.860.430.500.62
vs Weaker (15)0.670.200.880.120.430.29
Clean sheet %70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Riga MarinersRiga Mariners

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L20W30W10W00D20W10W10W20WA·AUG24/05A·RĒZ14/06H·SMI28/06A·RĪG05/07H·JDF18/07H·RIG26/07A·SKA02/08H·MĀR09/08A·LEE22/08H·PRO30/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.060.171.000.201.120.12
vs Stronger (9)1.220.221.000.401.500.00
vs Similar (8)0.750.120.750.000.750.25
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %83% (+57pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W21W11D00D20W01L02L21W20WH·JDF25/05A·RIG13/06H·SKA28/06A·MĀR05/07H·LEE19/07H·PRO26/07H·RĒZ02/08A·OGR09/08H·TUK22/08A·AUG30/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.631.130.600.870.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.870.801.000.860.750.75
vs Weaker (15)1.130.471.250.381.000.57
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Riga MarinersRiga Mariners

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-531W51W11D01L32W00D12L21W22D40WA·AUG24/05A·RĒZ14/06H·SMI28/06A·RĪG05/07H·JDF18/07H·RIG26/07A·SKA02/08H·MĀR09/08A·LEE22/08H·PRO30/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.001.500.802.251.25
vs Stronger (9)1.671.001.600.801.751.25
vs Similar (8)2.001.121.251.002.751.25
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %22% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (27)
€3m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (12)
€2m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (4)
€1m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (11)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
JV wins
0
Draws
0
RM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

JFK Ventspils vs Riga Mariners · H/A from JV
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/25ARiga Mariners Vs JV1-2

JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/25AAugšdaugava Vs JV0-2
22/08/25HJV Vs Tukums II4-1
09/08/25AOgre United Vs JV3-0
02/08/25HJV Vs Rēzekne FA1-1
26/07/25HJV Vs Progress / AFA Olaine5-0
19/07/25HJV Vs Leevon / PPK0-0
05/07/25AMārupe Vs JV1-2
28/06/25HJV Vs Skanste2-2
13/06/25ARiga FC II Vs JV2-2
25/05/25HJV Vs JDFS Alberts1-1

Riga MarinersRiga Mariners

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/25HRM Vs Progress / AFA Olaine6-0
22/08/25ALeevon / PPK Vs RM2-3
09/08/25HRM Vs Mārupe3-1
02/08/25ASkanste Vs RM2-3
26/07/25HRM Vs Riga FC II0-0
18/07/25HRM Vs JDFS Alberts4-2
05/07/25ARīgas FS II Vs RM1-3
28/06/25HRM Vs Smiltene3-1
14/06/25ARēzekne FA Vs RM2-5
24/05/25AAugšdaugava Vs RM1-5

📊 16. Overall Statistics

JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 5 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWW1.50
HomeDDWDW1.50
AwayDDWLW1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%38%42%
AVG goals2.602.542.67
Over 1.5 %76%73%79%
Over 2.5 %46%42%50%
Over 3.5 %28%31%25%
Scored1.441.541.33
Conceded1.161.001.33
BTTS48%46%50%
Clean Sheet34%38%29%
Corners---
Cards---
Riga Mariners
Riga Mariners
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW2.33
HomeWWDWW2.00
AwayWWWWW2.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %72%60%88%
AVG goals4.063.504.75
Over 1.5 %89%80%100%
Over 2.5 %78%70%88%
Over 3.5 %67%60%75%
Scored2.892.503.38
Conceded1.171.001.38
BTTS78%60%100%
Clean Sheet22%40%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Ogre UnitedOgre United2658
69%
2.2
6620+46
3.3
81%
73%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2112.50.8
-
2Riga MarinersRiga Mariners2658
69%
2.2
7434+40
4.2
92%
81%
65%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.3
-
3JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2658
65%
2.2
6024+36
3.2
81%
54%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.9
-
4JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2643
42%
1.7
4029+11
2.7
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
5Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2641
42%
1.6
4631+15
3.0
85%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
6SkansteSkanste2640
42%
1.5
3639-3
2.9
77%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
7Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK2636
38%
1.4
4040+0
3.1
77%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
8MārupeMārupe2632
38%
1.2
3033-3
2.4
62%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
9Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2631
31%
1.2
3657-21
3.6
85%
69%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
10SmilteneSmiltene2628
31%
1.1
4648-2
3.6
96%
81%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
11Riga FC IIRiga FC II2624
23%
0.9
3543-8
3.0
73%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
12Tukums IITukums II2623
27%
0.9
3760-23
3.7
81%
77%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.3
-
13Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2622
23%
0.8
3988-49
4.9
88%
81%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.53.4
-
14AugšdaugavaAugšdaugava2614
12%
0.5
1958-39
3.0
81%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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