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JFK Ventspils vs Rīgas FS II Result & Analysis

Date: 08/10/2023
Time: 12:00
Final 1-0
JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils
Vs
33%
29%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rīgas FS II
Rīgas FS II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

JFK Ventspils win✓ Hit
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II win✗ Miss
37.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L11D11D00D11D02L10W00D11DH·BEI22/07A·SKA30/07H·RĒZ06/08A·PRO13/08H·RIG20/08A·SMI27/08H·GRO02/09A·SAL16/09H·VAL23/09A·TUK30/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.190.601.000.731.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.641.210.571.290.711.14
vs Weaker (7)0.711.140.670.330.751.75
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W12L32W01L14L23L10W12L13L22DH·PRO22/07A·SMI29/07A·SAL05/08H·TUK11/08A·DIN19/08A·BEI26/08A·RĒZ03/09H·RIG15/09A·GRO23/09H·VAL29/09
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.571.533.190.941.862.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)2.671.253.570.711.402.00
vs Weaker (18)2.501.722.891.112.112.33
Clean sheet %27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.1%
Under 1.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.3%
Under 2.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.8%
Under 3.5
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-0
9.3%
0-1
9.1%
1-0 ✓
8.5%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
7.8%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
6.0%
JFK Ventspils goals ↓
Rīgas FS II goals →
01234
09.3%9.1%6.8%2.9%1.0%
18.5%14%8.3%3.6%1.2%
26.0%7.8%5.1%2.2%0.7%
32.4%3.2%2.1%0.9%0.3%
40.7%1.0%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = JFK Ventspils goals (down), columns = Rīgas FS II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Grobiņa
2.54
Riga FC II
2.44
Skanste
2.19
JDFS Alberts
1.81
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.54
Rīgas FS II
1.42
Beitar
1.32
Tukums II
1.27
JFK Ventspils
1.08
Valmiera II
1.08
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.88
Smiltene
0.85
Dinamo Rīga
0.82
Rēzekne FA
0.40
JFK Ventspils is 0.34 points worse than Rīgas FS II in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga FC II
3.28
Grobiņa
2.73
JDFS Alberts
2.31
Rīgas FS II
2.23
Skanste
2.23
Beitar
1.64
Tukums II
1.58
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.38
Dinamo Rīga
1.23
Smiltene
1.19
Valmiera II
1.15
JFK Ventspils
0.84
Rēzekne FA
0.60
JFK Ventspils is 1.39 goals worse than Rīgas FS II in terms of goals scored per game (0.84 vs 2.23).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga FC II
0.60
Grobiņa
0.65
Skanste
0.92
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.08
JFK Ventspils
1.16
JDFS Alberts
1.38
Valmiera II
1.54
Rīgas FS II
1.62
Tukums II
2.08
Progress / AFA Olaine
2.35
Dinamo Rīga
2.45
Smiltene
2.58
Beitar
2.64
Rēzekne FA
3.12
JFK Ventspils is 0.46 goals better than Rīgas FS II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.16 vs 1.62).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W11D00D10W02L10W00D01LH·BEI22/07A·SKA30/07H·RĒZ06/08A·PRO13/08H·RIG20/08A·SMI27/08H·GRO02/09A·SAL16/09H·VAL23/09A·TUK30/09
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.570.400.500.450.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.360.570.290.710.430.43
vs Weaker (7)0.570.570.670.000.501.00
Clean sheet %52% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W02L31W00D02L11D10W00D12L10WH·PRO22/07A·SMI29/07A·SAL05/08H·TUK11/08A·DIN19/08A·BEI26/08A·RĒZ03/09H·RIG15/09A·GRO23/09H·VAL29/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.801.560.501.141.14
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.500.751.710.431.201.20
vs Weaker (18)1.280.831.440.561.111.11
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L01L00D00D01L00D00D00D10WH·BEI22/07A·SKA30/07H·RĒZ06/08A·PRO13/08H·RIG20/08A·SMI27/08H·GRO02/09A·SAL16/09H·VAL23/09A·TUK30/09
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.240.620.200.500.270.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.290.640.290.570.290.71
vs Weaker (7)0.140.570.000.330.250.75
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W01L01L12L12L00D12L01L12LH·PRO22/07A·SMI29/07A·SAL05/08H·TUK11/08A·DIN19/08A·BEI26/08A·RĒZ03/09H·RIG15/09A·GRO23/09H·VAL29/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.400.631.620.441.140.86
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.170.501.860.290.200.80
vs Weaker (18)1.560.721.440.561.670.89
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.1%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (25)
€3m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (10)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (6)
€1m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (9)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
JV wins
0
Draws
1
RFI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

JFK Ventspils vs Rīgas FS II · H/A from JV
DateH/AGameScore
03/06/23ARīgas FS II Vs JV2-0

JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/09/23ATukums II Vs JV1-1
23/09/23HJV Vs Valmiera II0-0
16/09/23ASaldus SS/Leevon Vs JV0-1
02/09/23HJV Vs Grobiņa0-2
27/08/23ASmiltene Vs JV1-1
20/08/23HJV Vs Riga FC II0-0
13/08/23AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs JV1-1
06/08/23HJV Vs Rēzekne FA1-1
30/07/23ASkanste Vs JV2-1
22/07/23HJV Vs Beitar0-1

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/09/23HRFI Vs Valmiera II2-2
23/09/23AGrobiņa Vs RFI3-1
15/09/23HRFI Vs Riga FC II1-2
03/09/23ARēzekne FA Vs RFI0-1
26/08/23ABeitar Vs RFI3-2
19/08/23ADinamo Rīga Vs RFI4-1
11/08/23HRFI Vs Tukums II0-1
05/08/23ASaldus SS/Leevon Vs RFI2-3
29/07/23ASmiltene Vs RFI2-1
22/07/23HRFI Vs Progress / AFA Olaine1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 6 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDD1.00
HomeLDDLD0.90
AwayLDDWD1.09
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%20%27%
AVG goals1.861.602.09
Over 1.5 %57%40%73%
Over 2.5 %24%20%27%
Over 3.5 %10%10%9%
Scored0.670.600.73
Conceded1.191.001.36
BTTS38%30%45%
Clean Sheet33%40%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Rīgas FS II
Rīgas FS II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLD1.66
HomeLWLLD1.83
AwayWLLWL1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %51%58%43%
AVG goals4.134.044.22
Over 1.5 %87%83%91%
Over 2.5 %72%67%78%
Over 3.5 %62%58%65%
Scored2.602.962.22
Conceded1.531.082.00
BTTS60%54%65%
Clean Sheet23%29%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1GrobiņaGrobiņa2666
81%
2.5
7117+54
3.4
85%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.70.7
-
2Riga FC IIRiga FC II2561
76%
2.4
8215+67
3.9
84%
72%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.30.6
-
3SkansteSkanste2657
69%
2.2
5824+34
3.2
81%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.20.9
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2647
50%
1.8
6036+24
3.7
88%
69%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
5Saldus SS/LeevonSaldus SS/Leevon2640
46%
1.5
4028+12
2.6
77%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2637
42%
1.4
5842+16
3.8
81%
69%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.6
-
7Tukums IITukums II2633
38%
1.3
4154-13
3.7
81%
77%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.1
-
8BeitarBeitar2533
40%
1.3
4166-25
4.3
88%
76%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.6
-
9Valmiera IIValmiera II2628
27%
1.1
3040-10
2.7
69%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
10JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2527
28%
1.1
2129-8
2.0
56%
28%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.2
-
11Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2623
19%
0.9
3661-25
3.7
85%
58%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.3
-
12SmilteneSmiltene2622
23%
0.8
3167-36
3.8
92%
85%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.6
-
13Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga2218
23%
0.8
2754-27
3.7
82%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.5
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2510
8%
0.4
1578-63
3.7
84%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.1
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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