JFK Ventspils vs Tukums II Result & Analysis

JFK Ventspils, riding a draw-heavy run that ended 1-1 against Riga FC II, are set to host Tukums II, who have just suffered a 2-6 defeat to Skanste. The model predicts a home win with a 51% chance, a draw at 22% and an away win at 27%. The expected total is 3.8 goals, with the most likely total being 3 goals at 21%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 8.8% probability. Ventspils’ home form shows they average 1.0 goal scored and 2.54 conceded against stronger opposition, while Tukums II’s away form mirrors those figures. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 at 89.9%, Over 2.5 at 72.8% and BTTS Yes at 71.4%. Each of these picks is presented with its own probability, without attaching them to any match-result outcome.

The match saw JFK Ventspils extend a modest run, coming off a draw, while Tukums II returned from two straight defeats. The final score was 1-0, a clear home win that matched the model’s favourite, which was selected with a 51% probability. The model’s call was correct. The total goals fell far below the expected 3.8; the most likely total of 3 was not reached. The model’s selections were all missed: Over 1.5 with 89.9% probability, Over 2.5 at 72.8%, and BTTS Yes at 71.4%. Each prediction failed to materialise, underscoring the game’s defensive nature.