Jong Ajax is expected to come out on top against Emmen, with the home side enjoying a recent resurgence after a couple of defeats. Despite this, the away team has been on a two-game winning streak. The model predicts a home win with a 48% probability, while the draw is a 26% possibility and the away win a 27% chance.
The expected total number of goals in this match is 3, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring with a 12% probability. Jong Ajax has a strong home form, averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match against similar opponents. Emmen, on the other hand, averages 1.09 goals scored and 2.55 conceded when playing away against similar opponents.
The model suggests "Over 1.5" goals with an 81.5% probability and "Over 21.5 fouls" with a 72.3% probability. The home win percentage stands at 48%, the draw percentage at 26%, and the away win percentage at 27%.
Results analysis
The upset came as Jong Ajax, the pre-match favourite with a 49 % chance of victory, fell to a 4-6 defeat, while Emmen continued their four-game winning streak. The model’s call was wrong. Every suggested pick was settled: Away under 3.5 goals (95.7 %) missed, Home under 3.5 goals (88.7 %) missed, Home +2 handicap (88.5 %) missed, Away under 2.5 goals (85.8 %) missed, Over 19.5 fouls (85.0 %) hit, Home over 0.5 goals (83.9 %) hit, Over 1.5 (82.9 %) hit, and Under 5.5 cards (81.8 %) hit. The match ended 4-6 in favour of Emmen, confirming the model’s selection was incorrect.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jong Ajax win✗ Miss
48.9%
Avg Implied 33.1% · @ 2.80
Edge
+15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.90
Bet365
2.90
Betano
2.87
10Bet
2.85
Unibet
2.85
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied 24.5% · @ 3.79
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.15
Betfair
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Dafabet
3.80
1xBet
3.80
Emmen win✓ Hit
26.1%
Avg Implied 42.4% · @ 2.18
Edge
-16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.26
Pinnacle
2.24
888Sport
2.20
BetVictor
2.20
1xBet
2.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jong Ajax
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.83
1.40
1.60
1.07
2.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.12
1.88
1.15
1.62
1.08
2.15
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
1.50
3.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Emmen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Emmen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.73
1.87
1.33
1.07
2.13
vs Stronger (6)
1.67
1.83
2.00
2.00
1.33
1.67
vs Similar (24)
1.42
1.71
1.83
1.17
1.00
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.9%
@ 1.12-0.3%
Under 1.5
17.1%
@ 5.56+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
Betfair
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Under
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Pinnacle
5.77
BetVictor
5.75
10Bet
5.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.4%
@ 1.45-4.0%
Under 2.5
39.6%
@ 2.61+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.48
Bet365
1.48
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
888Sport
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.70
Pinnacle
2.70
10Bet
2.65
BetVictor
2.63
888Sport
2.60
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.0%
@ 2.14-5.6%
Under 3.5
62.0%
@ 1.66+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
1xBet
2.15
Under
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.0%
@ 1.41-3.8%
No
38.0%
@ 2.70+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.44
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
Bet365
1.40
No
1xBet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Marathonbet
2.72
888Sport
2.70
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%@ 7.55+5.5%
2-1
9.5%@ 9.92+4.9%
2-0
7.4%@ 16.60+4.6%
1-0
7.0%@ 13.16+3.6%
1-2
6.7%@ 8.60+1.5%
2-2
6.2%@ 10.26+1.7%
3-1
5.8%@ 17.93+3.3%
0-0
5.4%@ 17.00+2.8%
Jong Ajax goals ↓
Emmen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
4.7%
3.7%
1.6%
0.5%
1
7.0%
11%
6.7%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.4%
9.5%
6.2%
2.7%
0.9%
3
4.5%
5.8%
3.8%
1.6%
0.5%
4
2.0%
2.7%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jong Ajax goals (down), columns = Emmen goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Jong Ajax is 0.26 points worse than Emmen in terms of average points per game (0.92 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Jong Ajax is 0.21 goals worse than Emmen in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Jong Ajax is 0.03 goals worse than Emmen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.92 vs 1.89).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Jong Ajax is 0.2 percentage points worse than Emmen in terms of average possession (52% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Jong Ajax
For 4.3 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 12.8 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Emmen
For 5.5 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.7 · Against 0.7 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.3 · Against 10.1 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Jong Ajax
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.8
10.3
3.6
3.7
3.4
24.6
25.0
24.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
10.4
10.6
10.3
3.5
3.6
3.4
24.3
24.6
24.1
vs Weaker (6)
11.3
11.8
10.5
4.0
4.0
4.0
26.8
26.8
27.0
% over line
64%
56%
72%
54%
64%
44%
66%
64%
68%
% under line
36%
44%
28%
46%
36%
56%
34%
36%
32%
This opponent (Emmen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Emmen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.1
9.6
3.6
3.6
3.7
25.9
27.2
24.5
vs Stronger (8)
12.4
14.8
9.3
2.6
3.5
1.8
23.6
23.8
23.3
vs Similar (42)
10.0
10.4
9.6
3.8
3.6
4.0
26.3
27.9
24.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
75%
50%
50%
52%
48%
73%
71%
75%
% under line
38%
25%
50%
50%
48%
52%
27%
29%
25%
This opponent (Jong Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.1
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.8
Dordrecht
11.7
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Jong AZ
10.9
Jong PSV U21
10.7
Heracles
10.7
Helmond Sport
10.7
FC Volendam
10.5
Jong Ajax
10.5
Emmen
10.4
FC Eindhoven
10.4
MVV
10.3
Waalwijk
10.2
Roda
9.9
NAC Breda
9.9
Jong Utrecht
9.8
Vitesse
9.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.4
Dordrecht
4.2
FC OSS
4.2
Jong Ajax
3.9
Emmen
3.9
NAC Breda
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
Heracles
3.5
VVV Venlo
3.5
Helmond Sport
3.4
Roda
3.3
Jong AZ
3.3
FC Volendam
3.3
Waalwijk
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
De Graafschap
3.2
MVV
3.1
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Almere City FC
3.0
Jong Utrecht
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.2
Vitesse
27.0
Emmen
25.9
Helmond Sport
25.9
Jong Utrecht
25.6
Dordrecht
25.5
Roda
25.1
Jong Ajax
24.6
Heracles
24.3
Jong PSV U21
24.0
VVV Venlo
23.7
Jong AZ
23.4
Den Bosch
23.4
NAC Breda
22.9
FC Eindhoven
22.7
De Graafschap
22.7
MVV
22.6
Waalwijk
22.4
FC Volendam
22.1
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.5%
@ 1.56-0.3%
Under 9.5
41.5%
@ 2.23+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.57
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.51
1xBet
1.51
Under
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.29
Pinnacle
2.29
1xBet
2.22
Unibet
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.4%
Under 3.5
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
72.9%
Under 21.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jong Ajax or Draw✗ Miss
73.9%
Avg Implied 57.2% · @ 1.63
Edge
+16.6%
49%
25%
26%
covers Jong Ajax + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.70
Betfair
1.67
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.65
888Sport
1.62
Jong Ajax or Emmen✓ Hit
75.0%
Avg Implied 75.6% · @ 1.24
Edge
-0.5%
49%
25%
26%
covers Jong Ajax + Emmen
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
888Sport
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Draw or Emmen✓ Hit
51.1%
Avg Implied 67.2% · @ 1.39
Edge
-16.1%
49%
25%
26%
covers Draw + Emmen
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.44
William Hil
1.40
Betfair
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jong Ajax over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.9%
@ 1.20+6.5%
Under
16.1%
@ 4.11-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.34
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
1xBet
4.30
888Sport
4.00
Jong Ajax over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
54.6%
@ 2.01+8.3%
Under
45.4%
@ 1.73-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.02
Marathonbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Jong Ajax over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
27.7%
@ 4.21+5.7%
Under
72.3%
@ 1.19-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
1xBet
4.25
Pinnacle
4.21
Under
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Jong Ajax over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
11.3%
@ 9.69+1.6%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.05-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
888Sport
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Betano
8.25
Under
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Emmen over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.6%
@ 1.13-9.0%
Under
27.4%
@ 5.04+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Betfair
1.14
888Sport
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.30
888Sport
5.00
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Emmen over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
37.2%
@ 1.73-16.6%
Under
62.8%
@ 2.02+16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Betano
1.75
BetVictor
1.73
Under
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.03
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
Emmen over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
14.2%
@ 3.30-13.9%
Under
85.8%
@ 1.29+13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.43
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.34
BetVictor
3.30
Under
Betano
1.32
888Sport
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Emmen over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
4.3%
@ 6.86-9.4%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.08+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.00
888Sport
7.00
Betano
6.20
1xBet
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Betfair
1.07
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Jong Ajax, so a minus line means Jong Ajax give that many goals of a start and Emmen receive them. At -1, Jong Ajax must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jong Ajax win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jong Ajax)Actual: Emmen
Jong Ajax -2
12.6%
@ 12.50+5.3%
Draw -2
15.2%
@ 8.25+4.1%
Emmen +2
72.2%
@ 1.12-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
12.00
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Away
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Handicap -1 (Jong Ajax)Actual: Emmen
Jong Ajax -1
27.8%
@ 5.28+10.8%
Draw -1
21.1%
@ 4.88+2.7%
Emmen +1
51.1%
@ 1.39-13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.25
Betfair
5.00
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.70
Away
Betfair
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Unibet
1.36
Handicap +1 (Jong Ajax)Actual: Emmen
Jong Ajax +1
73.9%
@ 1.64+19.1%
Draw +1
14.7%
@ 4.23-6.6%
Emmen -1
11.5%
@ 3.73-12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Betfair
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Away
Marathonbet
3.86
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.55
Handicap +2 (Jong Ajax)Actual: Draw
Jong Ajax +2
88.5%
@ 1.22+14.6%
Draw +2
7.6%
@ 6.26-6.7%
Emmen -2
3.9%
@ 7.68-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Draw
Marathonbet
6.70
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Unibet
5.60
Away
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jong Ajax
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.80
0.53
0.67
0.33
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.42
0.85
0.46
0.77
0.38
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Emmen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Emmen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.00
0.87
0.87
0.27
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.92
0.83
0.67
0.08
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jong Ajax over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong Ajax over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong Ajax over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Emmen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Emmen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Emmen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jong Ajax
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.03
0.87
0.93
0.73
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.69
1.04
0.69
0.85
0.69
1.23
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Emmen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Emmen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.73
1.00
0.47
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.96
0.79
1.00
0.50
0.92
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jong Ajax over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong Ajax over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong Ajax over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Emmen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Emmen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Emmen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
95.7%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+9.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
88.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-1.6%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
88.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
+14.6%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
85.8%
1.29
Betano
1.32
888Sport
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
+13.9%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
83.9%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.9%
1.12
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
Betfair
1.13
888Sport
1.13
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.0%
1.24
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
888Sport
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
73.9%
1.63
Betano
1.70
Betfair
1.67
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.65
888Sport
1.62
+16.6%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
73.9%
1.64
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Betfair
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
+19.1%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
72.6%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Betfair
1.14
888Sport
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
-9.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
72.3%
1.19
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
-5.7%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
72.2%
1.12
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-9.3%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.5%
1.32
Unibet
1.41
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Jong Ajax
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emre Ünüvar80%
Diego Pugno60%
Pharrel Nash40%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Avery Appiah0%
Jano Monserrate0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Jinairo Johnson0%
Marvyn Muzungu0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Jeshurun Simeon0%
Levi Acheampong0%
Mohamed Abdalla0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Diego Pugno40%
Jano Monserrate40%
Marvyn Muzungu40%
Jinairo Johnson33%
Avery Appiah25%
Pharrel Nash20%
Jeshurun Simeon20%
Levi Acheampong20%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Emre Ünüvar0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Mohamed Abdalla0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Levi Acheampong40%
Mohamed Abdalla25%
Diego Pugno20%
Jano Monserrate20%
Pharrel Nash20%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Avery Appiah0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Emre Ünüvar0%
Jinairo Johnson0%
Marvyn Muzungu0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Jeshurun Simeon0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Emre Ünüvar60%
Pharrel Nash40%
Jano Monserrate20%
Jeshurun Simeon20%
Levi Acheampong20%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Avery Appiah0%
Diego Pugno0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Jinairo Johnson0%
Marvyn Muzungu0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Mohamed Abdalla0%
Emmen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Freddy Quispel75%
Nelson Amadin50%
Michael Breij25%
Jack Cooper Love25%
Alessandro Hojabrpour0%
Casper Staring0%
Bryan Van Hove0%
Mustafa Abdullatif0%
Joshua Mukeh0%
Yanis Dede-Lhomme0%
Luca Everink0%
Sam Karssies0%
Sybrand Veldhuis0%
Vincent Carus0%
Daan Lambers0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alessandro Hojabrpour50%
Bryan Van Hove50%
Yanis Dede-Lhomme50%
Michael Breij25%
Joshua Mukeh25%
Luca Everink25%
Sybrand Veldhuis25%
Freddy Quispel0%
Nelson Amadin0%
Jack Cooper Love0%
Casper Staring0%
Mustafa Abdullatif0%
Sam Karssies0%
Vincent Carus0%
Daan Lambers0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jack Cooper Love50%
Yanis Dede-Lhomme50%
Michael Breij25%
Casper Staring25%
Bryan Van Hove25%
Luca Everink25%
Sam Karssies25%
Freddy Quispel0%
Alessandro Hojabrpour0%
Nelson Amadin0%
Mustafa Abdullatif0%
Joshua Mukeh0%
Sybrand Veldhuis0%
Vincent Carus0%
Daan Lambers0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Freddy Quispel75%
Jack Cooper Love75%
Michael Breij50%
Nelson Amadin50%
Alessandro Hojabrpour0%
Casper Staring0%
Bryan Van Hove0%
Mustafa Abdullatif0%
Joshua Mukeh0%
Yanis Dede-Lhomme0%
Luca Everink0%
Sam Karssies0%
Sybrand Veldhuis0%
Vincent Carus0%
Daan Lambers0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Jong Ajax's squad is €14m more valuable than Emmen's (€19m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Jong Ajax's attack is €3m more valuable than Emmen's (€4m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Jong Ajax's midfield is €1m more valuable than Emmen's (€3m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Jong Ajax's defence is €10m more valuable than Emmen's (€12m vs €1m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht