Jong Ajax, after a string of four defeats, faces Helmond Sport who have only drawn their last match. The model sees a 51% chance of a home win, 25% for a draw and 24% for an away victory, making a home win the favourite. Three-goal games are expected on average, with a 24% probability that exactly two goals will be scored. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12% chance. Jong Ajax averages three goals scored and 1.5 conceded against weaker opposition at home, while Helmond Sport averages only 0.33 goals scored and 3.67 conceded away against stronger teams. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.7%) with a 2% edge, Away under 3.5 goals (98.0%) with a 7% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.5%) with a 5% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.4%) with a 6% edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.8%) with a 3% edge, Under 6.5 (96.5%) with a 3% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.5%) with a 7% edge, and Home +2 handicap (93.5%) with an 11% edge.
Results analysis
Jong Ajax’s recent win over Helmond Sport extended their win streak, and the model’s prediction of a home victory proved correct as the final score read 3-2. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was assigned a 50% probability, and the model’s call was right. The model’s selections performed exceptionally well: Under 7.5 goals hit at 98.7%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.0%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.8%, Under 6.5 at 96.5%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.5%, and Home +2 handicap at 93.5%. All eight picks settled, each achieving a hit.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jong Ajax win✓ Hit
50.5%
Avg Implied 43.4% · @ 2.14
Edge
+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
2.20
Dafabet
2.19
Superbet
2.17
Betfair
2.15
Betano
2.15
Draw✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied 25.2% · @ 3.69
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.10
Betfair
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Dafabet
3.75
Betano
3.75
Helmond Sport win✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied 31.5% · @ 2.95
Edge
-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.10
Dafabet
3.05
Superbet
3.00
Unibet
3.00
1xBet
2.98
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jong Ajax
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
2.00
1.50
1.86
1.12
2.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.19
2.08
1.25
1.92
1.14
2.21
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
1.50
3.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Helmond Sport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Helmond Sport
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.77
1.38
1.69
0.64
1.86
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
3.14
1.50
2.75
0.33
3.67
vs Similar (23)
1.04
1.35
1.33
1.33
0.73
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.9%
@ 1.15+0.1%
Under 1.5
19.1%
@ 4.85-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Under
Betfair
5.50
Pinnacle
5.07
BetVictor
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.3%
@ 1.53-3.5%
Under 2.5
42.7%
@ 2.37+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.57
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Under
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.47
10Bet
2.45
Betano
2.42
Bet365
2.40
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.9%
@ 2.33-5.3%
Under 3.5
65.1%
@ 1.56+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.40
Betfair
2.38
Pinnacle
2.37
10Bet
2.35
1xBet
2.33
Under
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
Marathonbet
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.1%
@ 1.46-4.2%
No
40.9%
@ 2.52+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Betfair
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
No
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
BetVictor
2.55
1xBet
2.53
10Bet
2.50
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%@ 7.10+5.5%
2-1
9.7%@ 8.36+4.3%
2-0
8.1%@ 11.98+4.4%
1-0
8.0%@ 10.26+3.6%
1-2
6.4%@ 9.94+1.9%
0-0
6.1%@ 14.96+3.1%
3-1
5.8%@ 13.62+2.5%
2-2
5.8%@ 10.41+1.4%
Jong Ajax goals ↓
Helmond Sport goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
4.9%
3.6%
1.4%
0.4%
1
8.0%
12%
6.4%
2.5%
0.8%
2
8.1%
9.7%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
3
4.9%
5.8%
3.4%
1.4%
0.4%
4
2.2%
2.6%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jong Ajax goals (down), columns = Helmond Sport goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Jong Ajax is 0.11 points worse than Helmond Sport in terms of average points per game (0.92 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Jong Ajax is 0.21 goals better than Helmond Sport in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Jong Ajax is 0.29 goals worse than Helmond Sport in terms of goals conceded per game (1.92 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Jong Ajax is 2.8 percentage points better than Helmond Sport in terms of average possession (52% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Jong Ajax
For 4.1 · Against 6.5 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 13.2 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Helmond Sport
For 4.1 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.0 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 10.6 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Jong Ajax
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.7
10.3
3.6
3.7
3.5
25.1
25.7
24.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
10.4
10.5
10.3
3.6
3.7
3.5
24.8
25.5
24.3
vs Weaker (6)
11.3
11.8
10.5
4.0
4.0
4.0
26.8
26.8
27.0
% over line
64%
56%
72%
54%
64%
44%
68%
68%
68%
% under line
36%
44%
28%
46%
36%
56%
32%
32%
32%
This opponent (Helmond Sport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Helmond Sport
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.0
10.3
3.2
3.1
3.4
25.6
25.8
25.4
vs Stronger (11)
11.0
11.0
11.0
3.5
3.0
4.0
24.7
23.7
26.0
vs Similar (39)
10.5
10.9
10.1
3.2
3.1
3.2
25.9
26.5
25.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
73%
46%
46%
42%
50%
80%
85%
75%
% under line
40%
27%
54%
54%
58%
50%
20%
15%
25%
This opponent (Jong Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.1
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.7
Dordrecht
11.6
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Jong PSV U21
10.7
Heracles
10.7
Helmond Sport
10.6
Jong AZ
10.5
Jong Ajax
10.5
FC Volendam
10.4
FC Eindhoven
10.4
Emmen
10.3
MVV
10.3
Waalwijk
10.0
Roda
10.0
NAC Breda
9.8
Vitesse
9.7
Jong Utrecht
9.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.5
Dordrecht
4.3
FC OSS
4.1
Jong Ajax
3.9
NAC Breda
3.9
Emmen
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
VVV Venlo
3.5
Heracles
3.5
FC Volendam
3.4
Jong AZ
3.4
Helmond Sport
3.3
Roda
3.3
Waalwijk
3.3
De Graafschap
3.3
MVV
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Almere City FC
3.0
Jong Utrecht
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.0
Vitesse
26.9
Emmen
25.9
Dordrecht
25.8
Jong Utrecht
25.6
Helmond Sport
25.6
Jong Ajax
25.1
Roda
24.8
Heracles
24.1
Jong PSV U21
23.9
VVV Venlo
23.8
Jong AZ
23.6
Den Bosch
23.2
NAC Breda
23.2
De Graafschap
22.8
MVV
22.7
FC Eindhoven
22.6
Waalwijk
22.5
FC Volendam
22.3
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
57.9%
@ 1.65+2.0%
Under 9.5
42.1%
@ 2.10-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
Superbet
1.65
Under
Unibet
2.20
Betano
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.08
Marathonbet
2.06
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.8%
Under 3.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
77.3%
Under 21.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jong Ajax or Draw✓ Hit
82.5%
Avg Implied 68.5% · @ 1.36
Edge
+14.0%
50%
25%
24%
covers Jong Ajax + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Jong Ajax or Helmond Sport✓ Hit
77.0%
Avg Implied 74.9% · @ 1.25
Edge
+2.1%
50%
25%
24%
covers Jong Ajax + Helmond Sport
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Draw or Helmond Sport✗ Miss
40.5%
Avg Implied 56.6% · @ 1.65
Edge
-16.1%
50%
25%
24%
covers Draw + Helmond Sport
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.67
Betfair
1.67
10Bet
1.67
1xBet
1.66
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jong Ajax over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.7%
@ 1.15+6.2%
Under
13.3%
@ 4.76-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
BetVictor
1.14
Under
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.85
BetVictor
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Jong Ajax over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
59.8%
@ 1.79+7.9%
Under
40.2%
@ 1.93-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.84
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Under
Betfair
2.00
Pinnacle
1.97
1xBet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Jong Ajax over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
32.8%
@ 3.47+6.2%
Under
67.2%
@ 1.26-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.60
Pinnacle
3.54
10Bet
3.50
Unibet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Under
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Jong Ajax over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
14.6%
@ 7.40+2.0%
Under
85.4%
@ 1.07-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.60
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.30
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Helmond Sport over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
63.9%
@ 1.23-11.0%
Under
36.1%
@ 3.69+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Unibet
1.24
Under
Pinnacle
3.84
BetVictor
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Helmond Sport over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
27.1%
@ 2.17-15.7%
Under
72.9%
@ 1.63+15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.25
Unibet
2.25
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.17
Under
Betfair
1.67
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Helmond Sport over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.4%
@ 4.69-11.3%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.15+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.90
BetVictor
4.80
1xBet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.70
Under
Betano
1.18
Betfair
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Helmond Sport over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 10.40-7.0%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.03+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Jong Ajax, so a minus line means Jong Ajax give that many goals of a start and Helmond Sport receive them. At -1, Jong Ajax must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jong Ajax win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jong Ajax)Actual: Helmond Sport
Jong Ajax -2
18.3%
@ 7.62+6.6%
Draw -2
18.4%
@ 6.03+3.6%
Helmond Sport +2
63.2%
@ 1.22-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Superbet
7.30
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
Superbet
5.85
Away
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Handicap -1 (Jong Ajax)Actual: Draw
Jong Ajax -1
36.8%
@ 3.72+12.8%
Draw -1
22.7%
@ 4.04+0.6%
Helmond Sport +1
40.5%
@ 1.66-13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.58
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.95
10Bet
3.95
Away
Unibet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
Handicap +1 (Jong Ajax)Actual: Jong Ajax
Jong Ajax +1
82.5%
@ 1.36+16.6%
Draw +1
11.0%
@ 4.86-7.5%
Helmond Sport -1
6.5%
@ 5.75-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Away
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.50
Superbet
5.50
Handicap +2 (Jong Ajax)Actual: Jong Ajax
Jong Ajax +2
93.5%
@ 1.10+10.5%
Draw +2
4.7%
@ 9.00-5.5%
Helmond Sport -2
1.8%
@ 13.50-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Away
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jong Ajax
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.71
0.79
0.31
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.92
0.67
0.92
0.36
0.93
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Helmond Sport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Helmond Sport
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.75
0.69
0.36
0.79
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.57
0.75
1.25
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.48
0.75
0.50
0.45
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.3%
@ 1.25-6.6%
Under 0.5
32.7%
@ 3.56+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.70
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
31.6%
@ 2.24-9.9%
Under 1.5
68.4%
@ 1.59+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.32
Pinnacle
2.30
Marathonbet
2.25
Superbet
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.62
William Hil
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Betfair
1.60
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
10.2%
@ 5.03-8.3%
Under 2.5
89.8%
@ 1.14+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.40
Betfair
5.20
Superbet
4.90
William Hil
4.80
Under
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jong Ajax over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
46.4%
@ 1.73-7.2%
Under
53.6%
@ 2.00+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
Under
Pinnacle
2.08
1xBet
2.03
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
Unibet
1.98
Jong Ajax over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
12.3%
@ 4.53-8.2%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.16+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.70
Superbet
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.50
1xBet
4.40
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
Jong Ajax over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 12.33-5.1%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.02+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Helmond Sport over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
40.3%
@ 1.96-6.9%
Under
59.7%
@ 1.76+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.01
Betano
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Superbet
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Under
1xBet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Helmond Sport over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.4%
@ 5.80-5.5%
Under
89.6%
@ 1.10+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.05
Superbet
5.90
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.70
1xBet
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Helmond Sport over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 16.58-2.6%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jong Ajax
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.13
0.79
1.07
0.81
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.69
1.15
0.58
1.00
0.79
1.29
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Helmond Sport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Helmond Sport
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.03
0.62
1.00
0.29
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.57
0.75
1.50
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.87
0.58
0.83
0.27
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.8%
@ 1.15-3.1%
Under 0.5
22.2%
@ 4.85+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.12
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betano
5.00
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
William Hil
4.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
43.8%
@ 1.75-9.2%
Under 1.5
56.2%
@ 1.98+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.79
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Under
Betano
2.07
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
1xBet
1.99
Superbet
1.95
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.5%
@ 3.25-11.0%
Under 2.5
82.5%
@ 1.30+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
William Hil
3.30
1xBet
3.16
Marathonbet
3.16
Under
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jong Ajax over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.7%
@ 1.50-7.0%
Under
45.3%
@ 2.42+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Under
Betano
2.47
1xBet
2.45
10Bet
2.40
Superbet
2.37
Jong Ajax over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.8%
@ 3.33-7.1%
Under
79.2%
@ 1.29+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.45
10Bet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
Betano
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Jong Ajax over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.5%
@ 8.43-6.5%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.04+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.90
Superbet
8.90
10Bet
8.50
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Helmond Sport over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.2%
@ 1.66-7.8%
Under
51.8%
@ 2.10+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.68
10Bet
1.65
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Under
Betano
2.15
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Helmond Sport over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.0%
@ 4.18-8.2%
Under
86.0%
@ 1.19+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.33
Superbet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
1xBet
4.10
Betano
4.00
Under
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Helmond Sport over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 10.75-6.1%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.03+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.7%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Superbet
1.01
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
-
-
-
+10.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.6%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Betfair
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
+11.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
91.2%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.8%
1.14
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+8.3%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.6%
1.10
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.7%
1.16
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
+8.2%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
86.7%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
BetVictor
1.14
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.0%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
85.4%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.5%
1.30
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
+11.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
82.5%
1.36
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
+14.0%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
82.5%
1.36
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
+16.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.9%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
80.9%
1.21
Pinnacle
1.24
Betano
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+4.2%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.2%
1.29
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.8%
1.15
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.12
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
77.0%
1.25
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.25
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
72.9%
1.63
Betfair
1.67
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
+15.7%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Jong Ajax
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emre Ünüvar80%
Diego Pugno60%
Pharrel Nash40%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Avery Appiah0%
Jano Monserrate0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Jinairo Johnson0%
Marvyn Muzungu0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Jeshurun Simeon0%
Levi Acheampong0%
Mohamed Abdalla0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Diego Pugno40%
Jano Monserrate40%
Marvyn Muzungu40%
Jinairo Johnson33%
Avery Appiah25%
Pharrel Nash20%
Jeshurun Simeon20%
Levi Acheampong20%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Emre Ünüvar0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Mohamed Abdalla0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Levi Acheampong40%
Mohamed Abdalla25%
Diego Pugno20%
Jano Monserrate20%
Pharrel Nash20%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Avery Appiah0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Emre Ünüvar0%
Jinairo Johnson0%
Marvyn Muzungu0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Jeshurun Simeon0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Emre Ünüvar60%
Pharrel Nash40%
Jano Monserrate20%
Jeshurun Simeon20%
Levi Acheampong20%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Avery Appiah0%
Diego Pugno0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Jinairo Johnson0%
Marvyn Muzungu0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Mohamed Abdalla0%
Helmond Sport
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Brian Koglin25%
Sem Dekkers25%
Mauro Lenaerts25%
Menno Bergsen0%
Michel Ludwig0%
Labinot Bajrami0%
Helgi Fróði Ingason0%
Xander van der Velde0%
Kiton Ekoli0%
Tijn Landheer0%
Livio Cicero0%
Wassim Lantaki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Wassim Lantaki50%
Brian Koglin25%
Michel Ludwig25%
Labinot Bajrami25%
Helgi Fróði Ingason25%
Mauro Lenaerts25%
Menno Bergsen0%
Sem Dekkers0%
Xander van der Velde0%
Kiton Ekoli0%
Tijn Landheer0%
Livio Cicero0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Helgi Fróði Ingason25%
Livio Cicero25%
Wassim Lantaki25%
Brian Koglin0%
Menno Bergsen0%
Michel Ludwig0%
Labinot Bajrami0%
Sem Dekkers0%
Mauro Lenaerts0%
Xander van der Velde0%
Kiton Ekoli0%
Tijn Landheer0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Brian Koglin0%
Menno Bergsen0%
Michel Ludwig0%
Labinot Bajrami0%
Sem Dekkers0%
Helgi Fróði Ingason0%
Mauro Lenaerts0%
Xander van der Velde0%
Kiton Ekoli0%
Tijn Landheer0%
Livio Cicero0%
Wassim Lantaki0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Jong Ajax's squad is €15m more valuable than Helmond Sport's (€19m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Jong Ajax's attack is €3m more valuable than Helmond Sport's (€4m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Jong Ajax's midfield is €2m more valuable than Helmond Sport's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Jong Ajax's defence is €10m more valuable than Helmond Sport's (€12m vs €2m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
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Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht