Jong AZ, fresh from a 1-3 loss to Emmen, faces MVV, who are riding a three-game winning streak. The model favours a home win with a 57% chance, followed by a 24% draw and a 19% away victory. The expected total is 3.0 goals, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, with a 23% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying an 11.1% chance. Jong AZ’s home form shows they average 1.0 goal scored and 1.6 conceded against weaker opponents, while MVV’s away numbers are 0.67 scored and 2.33 conceded against stronger teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.7%) with a 4% edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.2%) with a 3% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7%) with a 6% edge, Away under 3.5 goals (97.3%) with a 5% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.5%) with an 8% edge, Under 6.5 (96.3%) with a 6% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.0%) with an 11% edge, and Home +2 handicap (92.0%) with a 4% edge.
Results analysis
The upset came as Jong AZ, the pre-match favourite with a 58% chance of triumph, fell to a 1-2 defeat, leaving the model’s pick wrong. The match ended 1-2 in favour of MVV, extending their four-game winning run. The model had also highlighted a 23% chance of a 2-goal total, but the game produced three. Every suggested selection was a hit: Under 7.5 goals (98.7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.2%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.4%), Under 6.5 (96.3%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (93.5%) and Home +2 handicap (92.0%). The final score of 1-2, with MVV’s victory, confirms the surprise outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jong AZ win✗ Miss
57.6%
Avg Implied 52.1% · @ 1.78
Edge
+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
Superbet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
William Hil
1.80
Draw✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied 23.3% · @ 3.99
Edge
-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
10Bet
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Betfair
4.10
MVV win✓ Hit
19.1%
Avg Implied 24.6% · @ 3.79
Edge
-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.20
Dafabet
4.00
Betano
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Bet365
3.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jong AZ
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.97
1.27
1.73
2.27
2.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
2.27
2.27
1.80
2.00
2.67
2.50
vs Weaker (19)
1.47
1.79
1.00
1.60
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (MVV) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
MVV
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.00
1.33
1.80
1.00
2.20
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
2.40
2.00
2.67
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.12
1.92
1.17
1.58
1.08
2.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong AZ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.6%
@ 1.10-2.4%
Under 1.5
17.4%
@ 6.21+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Under
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Pinnacle
6.40
Marathonbet
6.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.0%
@ 1.37-7.7%
Under 2.5
40.0%
@ 2.88+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Under
Betfair
3.10
10Bet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.92
Betano
2.90
BetVictor
2.90
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.7%
@ 1.96-10.2%
Under 3.5
62.3%
@ 1.80+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.03
Unibet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
1xBet
1.96
Under
Betano
1.87
Pinnacle
1.84
10Bet
1.83
SBO
1.81
Betfair
1.80
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.6%
@ 1.39-8.2%
No
41.4%
@ 2.79+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Superbet
1.39
No
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Betano
2.87
1xBet
2.81
Marathonbet
2.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%@ 8.35+5.4%
2-1
9.9%@ 8.03+4.3%
2-0
9.1%@ 11.56+5.2%
1-0
8.0%@ 11.63+4.1%
3-1
6.7%@ 11.08+2.6%
3-0
6.1%@ 15.96+3.3%
0-0
5.5%@ 19.26+3.1%
2-2
5.4%@ 10.23+1.0%
Jong AZ goals ↓
MVV goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
3.9%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
1
8.0%
11%
5.4%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.1%
9.9%
5.4%
2.0%
0.5%
3
6.1%
6.7%
3.6%
1.3%
0.4%
4
3.1%
3.3%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jong AZ goals (down), columns = MVV goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Jong AZ is 0.05 points better than MVV in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Jong AZ is 0.53 goals better than MVV in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Jong AZ is 0.08 goals worse than MVV in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.92).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Jong AZ is 9.9 percentage points better than MVV in terms of average possession (54% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Jong AZ
For 5.8 · Against 5.7 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 9.6 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
MVV
For 3.4 · Against 6.2 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 11.0 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Jong AZ
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
9.9
11.1
3.3
3.3
3.3
23.6
24.8
22.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
11.4
10.4
12.8
3.7
3.6
3.8
23.8
25.5
21.6
vs Weaker (30)
9.9
9.6
10.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
23.5
24.3
22.8
% over line
54%
48%
60%
38%
40%
36%
68%
80%
56%
% under line
46%
52%
40%
62%
60%
64%
32%
20%
44%
This opponent (MVV) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
MVV
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.8
10.8
3.0
3.0
3.1
22.7
22.2
23.1
vs Stronger (7)
9.9
7.7
11.5
2.4
2.3
2.5
19.9
20.7
19.2
vs Similar (43)
10.3
10.1
10.6
3.1
3.0
3.2
23.1
22.5
23.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
52%
76%
36%
36%
36%
60%
64%
56%
% under line
36%
48%
24%
64%
64%
64%
40%
36%
44%
This opponent (Jong AZ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.1
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.7
Dordrecht
11.6
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Jong PSV U21
10.7
Heracles
10.7
Helmond Sport
10.6
Jong AZ
10.5
Jong Ajax
10.5
FC Volendam
10.4
FC Eindhoven
10.4
Emmen
10.3
MVV
10.3
Waalwijk
10.0
Roda
10.0
NAC Breda
9.8
Vitesse
9.7
Jong Utrecht
9.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.5
Dordrecht
4.3
FC OSS
4.1
Jong Ajax
3.9
NAC Breda
3.9
Emmen
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
VVV Venlo
3.5
Heracles
3.5
FC Volendam
3.4
Jong AZ
3.4
Helmond Sport
3.3
Roda
3.3
Waalwijk
3.3
De Graafschap
3.3
MVV
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Almere City FC
3.0
Jong Utrecht
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.0
Vitesse
26.9
Emmen
25.9
Dordrecht
25.8
Jong Utrecht
25.6
Helmond Sport
25.6
Jong Ajax
25.1
Roda
24.8
Heracles
24.1
Jong PSV U21
23.9
VVV Venlo
23.8
Jong AZ
23.6
Den Bosch
23.2
NAC Breda
23.2
De Graafschap
22.8
MVV
22.7
FC Eindhoven
22.6
Waalwijk
22.5
FC Volendam
22.3
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
60.3%
@ 1.50-0.8%
Under 9.5
39.7%
@ 2.37+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
Under
Unibet
2.48
Betano
2.42
Pinnacle
2.40
Marathonbet
2.34
Superbet
2.30
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
41.7%
Under 3.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
65.1%
Under 21.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jong AZ or Draw✗ Miss
79.7%
Avg Implied 75.4% · @ 1.24
Edge
+4.3%
58%
23%
19%
covers Jong AZ + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.26
Betfair
1.25
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Jong AZ or MVV✓ Hit
76.1%
Avg Implied 77.6% · @ 1.20
Edge
-1.5%
58%
23%
19%
covers Jong AZ + MVV
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Draw or MVV✓ Hit
44.2%
Avg Implied 47.0% · @ 1.98
Edge
-2.8%
58%
23%
19%
covers Draw + MVV
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.07
SBO
2.06
1xBet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jong AZ over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.7%
@ 1.08-0.4%
Under
14.3%
@ 6.73+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.10
BetVictor
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Under
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
6.80
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Superbet
6.50
Jong AZ over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
58.0%
@ 1.49-4.5%
Under
42.0%
@ 2.47+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Under
Pinnacle
2.58
Betano
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Marathonbet
2.50
Jong AZ over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
30.9%
@ 2.53-5.8%
Under
69.1%
@ 1.47+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Unibet
2.63
Pinnacle
2.61
BetVictor
2.55
Marathonbet
2.53
Under
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Jong AZ over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.4%
@ 4.92-5.5%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.14+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Superbet
4.85
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
MVV over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.1%
@ 1.24-7.6%
Under
32.9%
@ 3.66+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Under
BetVictor
3.80
Pinnacle
3.79
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
MVV over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
30.6%
@ 2.21-11.5%
Under
69.4%
@ 1.60+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.31
1xBet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.22
Superbet
2.22
Betfair
2.20
Under
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.62
Betfair
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
MVV over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.2%
@ 4.85-8.8%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.14+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.85
BetVictor
4.80
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
BetVictor
1.14
MVV over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 11.56-5.5%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.03+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Jong AZ, so a minus line means Jong AZ give that many goals of a start and MVV receive them. At -1, Jong AZ must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jong AZ win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jong AZ)Actual: MVV
Jong AZ -2
16.1%
@ 5.34-0.7%
Draw -2
17.3%
@ 5.22+0.1%
MVV +2
66.5%
@ 1.36+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.25
Superbet
5.00
Draw
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Superbet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Away
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.35
Unibet
1.34
Handicap -1 (Jong AZ)Actual: MVV
Jong AZ -1
33.5%
@ 2.82+1.7%
Draw -1
22.3%
@ 4.00-0.1%
MVV +1
44.2%
@ 1.96-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.88
Bet365
2.88
Unibet
2.85
10Bet
2.80
Superbet
2.77
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Unibet
3.80
Away
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Superbet
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Unibet
1.91
Handicap +1 (Jong AZ)Actual: Draw
Jong AZ +1
79.7%
@ 1.24+7.1%
Draw +1
12.3%
@ 5.89-3.0%
MVV -1
8.0%
@ 7.39-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
6.00
Superbet
5.85
10Bet
5.75
Away
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.60
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
7.00
Handicap +2 (Jong AZ)Actual: Jong AZ
Jong AZ +2
92.0%
@ 1.06+5.0%
Draw +2
5.7%
@ 11.50-2.4%
MVV -2
2.4%
@ 18.50-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
11.00
Away
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
18.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jong AZ
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.53
0.80
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.00
0.60
1.00
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.58
0.74
0.50
0.70
0.67
0.78
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (MVV) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
MVV
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.90
0.40
0.80
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.88
0.33
0.67
0.54
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong AZ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.8%
@ 1.20-8.8%
Under 0.5
31.2%
@ 4.14+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
BetVictor
1.20
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
William Hil
4.20
1xBet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
31.6%
@ 1.99-15.2%
Under 1.5
68.4%
@ 1.75+15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.07
SBO
2.06
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Unibet
2.00
Under
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
SBO
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.2%
@ 4.12-10.2%
Under 2.5
87.8%
@ 1.20+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.40
Marathonbet
4.20
William Hil
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Betfair
4.00
Under
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Betfair
1.20
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jong AZ over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
50.2%
@ 1.51-11.1%
Under
49.8%
@ 2.40+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Under
1xBet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.47
10Bet
2.40
Superbet
2.40
Betano
2.35
Jong AZ over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.8%
@ 3.45-11.9%
Under
85.2%
@ 1.26+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.72
Betano
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Superbet
3.40
1xBet
3.20
Under
1xBet
1.29
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Jong AZ over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 8.47-7.4%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.04+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.70
Superbet
8.70
10Bet
8.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
MVV over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.7%
@ 2.01-8.6%
Under
62.3%
@ 1.73+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.08
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.03
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Under
Marathonbet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Unibet
1.73
Superbet
1.72
MVV over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.9%
@ 6.16-5.1%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.09+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.60
1xBet
6.30
Superbet
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
MVV over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 17.67-3.7%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jong AZ
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.13
0.73
0.93
1.53
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.55
1.27
1.20
1.00
1.83
1.50
vs Weaker (19)
0.89
1.05
0.50
0.90
1.33
1.22
Clean sheet %
27% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (MVV) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
MVV
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.10
0.93
1.00
0.53
1.20
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.40
1.33
1.33
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.68
1.04
0.83
0.92
0.54
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong AZ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.0%
@ 1.11-6.0%
Under 0.5
22.0%
@ 5.84+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.12
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Under
1xBet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Betano
6.00
Superbet
5.60
William Hil
5.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
44.1%
@ 1.58-14.7%
Under 1.5
55.9%
@ 2.25+14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.60
Unibet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Bet365
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Under
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.8%
@ 2.76-14.7%
Under 2.5
81.2%
@ 1.40+14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.88
Superbet
2.80
1xBet
2.77
Marathonbet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jong AZ over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
56.9%
@ 1.33-12.5%
Under
43.1%
@ 3.02+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Under
Betano
3.10
1xBet
3.10
10Bet
3.00
Superbet
2.90
Jong AZ over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.8%
@ 2.59-16.1%
Under
80.2%
@ 1.45+16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.69
10Bet
2.62
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.44
Under
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.49
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Jong AZ over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.5%
@ 5.96-9.1%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.09+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.40
10Bet
6.25
1xBet
5.70
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
MVV over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.7%
@ 1.68-7.6%
Under
52.3%
@ 2.07+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.74
Superbet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.68
Betano
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Under
10Bet
2.15
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
1.98
MVV over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.7%
@ 4.31-7.7%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.18+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Superbet
4.35
Betano
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
MVV over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 11.08-6.4%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.03+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.4%
1.04
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.3%
1.05
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.5%
1.09
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
-
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
91.0%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.1%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.8%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
BetVictor
1.14
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.8%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+10.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
86.6%
1.14
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.3%
1.18
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
85.7%
1.08
Betano
1.10
BetVictor
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.2%
1.26
1xBet
1.29
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
+11.9%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.6%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.2%
1.40
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
+14.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
80.5%
1.32
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.2%
1.45
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.49
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
+16.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
79.7%
1.24
Betano
1.26
Betfair
1.25
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+4.3%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
79.7%
1.24
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
+7.1%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.12
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
-6.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.1%
1.20
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.1%
1.29
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
+1.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Jong AZ
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ayoub Oufkir67%
Julian Oerip40%
Bendegúz Kovács33%
Rio Robbemond25%
Yoël van den Ban20%
Tycho de Wit20%
Sam De Grand0%
Kiyani Zeggen0%
Rion Ichihara0%
Jesper Zwart0%
Frej Elkjær Andersen0%
Mathijs Menu0%
Andrea Natali0%
Jerolldino Bergraaf0%
Hessel de Wit0%
Kiani Inge0%
Julian Sijbrands0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Julian Oerip40%
Ayoub Oufkir33%
Bendegúz Kovács33%
Sam De Grand0%
Kiyani Zeggen0%
Yoël van den Ban0%
Rion Ichihara0%
Jesper Zwart0%
Frej Elkjær Andersen0%
Rio Robbemond0%
Mathijs Menu0%
Andrea Natali0%
Jerolldino Bergraaf0%
Hessel de Wit0%
Kiani Inge0%
Tycho de Wit0%
Julian Sijbrands0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrea Natali33%
Bendegúz Kovács33%
Rio Robbemond25%
Julian Oerip20%
Yoël van den Ban20%
Sam De Grand0%
Kiyani Zeggen0%
Rion Ichihara0%
Jesper Zwart0%
Frej Elkjær Andersen0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Mathijs Menu0%
Jerolldino Bergraaf0%
Hessel de Wit0%
Kiani Inge0%
Tycho de Wit0%
Julian Sijbrands0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Julian Oerip100%
Ayoub Oufkir67%
Bendegúz Kovács33%
Sam De Grand0%
Kiyani Zeggen0%
Yoël van den Ban0%
Rion Ichihara0%
Jesper Zwart0%
Frej Elkjær Andersen0%
Rio Robbemond0%
Mathijs Menu0%
Andrea Natali0%
Jerolldino Bergraaf0%
Hessel de Wit0%
Kiani Inge0%
Tycho de Wit0%
Julian Sijbrands0%
MVV
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Olivier Dumont50%
Jael Pawaridihadjo33%
Noa el Hamdaoui33%
Stan Van Dessel25%
Elias Sierra25%
Lennerd Daneels0%
Delano Asante0%
Hugo Wentges0%
Finn Dicke0%
Milan Hofland0%
Sil van der Wegen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lennerd Daneels25%
Delano Asante25%
Milan Hofland25%
Sil van der Wegen25%
Stan Van Dessel0%
Elias Sierra0%
Hugo Wentges0%
Olivier Dumont0%
Finn Dicke0%
Jael Pawaridihadjo0%
Noa el Hamdaoui0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lennerd Daneels25%
Delano Asante25%
Olivier Dumont25%
Finn Dicke25%
Milan Hofland25%
Stan Van Dessel0%
Elias Sierra0%
Hugo Wentges0%
Sil van der Wegen0%
Jael Pawaridihadjo0%
Noa el Hamdaoui0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Noa el Hamdaoui33%
Lennerd Daneels25%
Olivier Dumont25%
Stan Van Dessel0%
Delano Asante0%
Elias Sierra0%
Hugo Wentges0%
Finn Dicke0%
Milan Hofland0%
Sil van der Wegen0%
Jael Pawaridihadjo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Jong AZ and MVV have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Jong AZ and MVV have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Jong AZ and MVV have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Jong AZ and MVV have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
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Heracles
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht