Pythia gives Jong AZ a 26% win probability against Roda in the Netherlands: Eerste Divisie on 2026-04-24, with 24% for the draw and 51% for Roda. The model estimates around 3.4 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (10.3%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 5.5 cards (87%), Over 1.5 (86%), Over 19.5 fouls (85%), Under 4.5 cards (75%).
Results analysis
Jong AZ finished 2-0 against Roda (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 26% home win, 24% draw and 51% away win. Picks that landed: Under 5.5 cards (87%), Over 1.5 (86%), Over 19.5 fouls (85%), Under 4.5 cards (75%). Missed: Over 21.5 fouls (72%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jong AZ win✓ Hit
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Roda win✗ Miss
50.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jong AZ
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
2.10
1.21
2.07
2.06
2.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.67
2.44
1.60
2.40
1.75
2.50
vs Weaker (21)
1.67
1.95
1.00
1.89
2.17
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Roda) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Roda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.37
1.40
1.40
1.87
1.33
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
2.40
1.00
2.67
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.70
1.17
1.55
1.09
1.83
1.25
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong AZ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.2%
Under 1.5
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
65.9%
Under 2.5
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.0%
Under 3.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.0%
No
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
6.7%
2-1
6.5%
2-2
6.5%
1-3
6.2%
0-1
5.8%
0-3
4.5%
Jong AZ goals ↓
Roda goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
5.8%
6.7%
4.5%
2.2%
1
3.8%
10%
9.4%
6.2%
3.1%
2
3.3%
6.5%
6.5%
4.3%
2.2%
3
1.5%
3.1%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
4
0.5%
1.1%
1.1%
0.7%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jong AZ goals (down), columns = Roda goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
ADO Den Haag
2.34
Cambuur
2.05
Willem II
1.84
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
FC Volendam
1.50
Vitesse
1.47
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Jong AZ is 0.37 points worse than Roda in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ADO Den Haag
2.37
Almere City FC
2.02
Cambuur
1.97
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Jong PSV U21
1.74
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
Willem II
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
Jong Ajax
1.32
VVV Venlo
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Jong AZ is 0.08 goals better than Roda in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 1.52).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
ADO Den Haag
0.97
Willem II
1.05
Cambuur
1.26
Roda
1.40
Vitesse
1.45
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong Utrecht
1.63
FC OSS
1.68
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
Jong Ajax
1.92
MVV
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Jong AZ is 0.60 goals worse than Roda in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
ADO Den Haag
60%
Cambuur
58%
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Willem II
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Jong AZ is 1.4 percentage points better than Roda in terms of average possession (54% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Jong AZ
For 5.3 · Against 5.8 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 9.0 · Total 20.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Roda
For 5.4 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 16.5 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Jong AZ
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.1
11.3
3.2
3.3
3.0
23.4
24.9
22.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
11.9
10.6
13.4
2.9
3.2
2.5
21.4
24.0
18.4
vs Weaker (33)
10.1
9.9
10.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
24.5
25.4
23.6
% over line
58%
52%
64%
38%
40%
36%
66%
80%
52%
% under line
42%
48%
36%
62%
60%
64%
34%
20%
48%
This opponent (Roda) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Roda
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.8
9.2
3.1
3.8
2.5
24.9
25.0
24.8
vs Stronger (7)
11.1
11.5
10.7
3.6
4.5
2.3
25.4
25.0
26.0
vs Similar (41)
10.0
10.8
9.1
3.1
3.8
2.4
24.9
25.2
24.4
vs Weaker (2)
8.0
7.0
9.0
3.0
1.0
5.0
24.5
21.0
28.0
% over line
54%
65%
42%
40%
50%
29%
76%
73%
79%
% under line
46%
35%
58%
60%
50%
71%
24%
27%
21%
This opponent (Jong AZ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.0
FC OSS
11.8
De Graafschap
11.7
Dordrecht
11.6
VVV Venlo
11.3
Willem II
11.0
Jong PSV U21
10.9
Almere City FC
10.8
Helmond Sport
10.7
Jong AZ
10.7
FC Eindhoven
10.5
Jong Ajax
10.5
Waalwijk
10.5
Emmen
10.5
ADO Den Haag
10.4
FC Volendam
10.3
MVV
10.3
Roda
10.0
Jong Utrecht
10.0
Vitesse
10.0
Cambuur
9.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.4
FC OSS
4.1
Dordrecht
4.1
Cambuur
3.9
Jong Ajax
3.8
Emmen
3.8
Den Bosch
3.8
ADO Den Haag
3.8
VVV Venlo
3.6
FC Volendam
3.5
Roda
3.4
Helmond Sport
3.4
Jong AZ
3.4
Jong PSV U21
3.3
FC Eindhoven
3.2
Waalwijk
3.2
Willem II
3.1
De Graafschap
3.1
Jong Utrecht
3.1
MVV
3.0
Almere City FC
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.6
Vitesse
27.2
Cambuur
26.9
ADO Den Haag
26.9
Helmond Sport
26.2
Emmen
26.0
Jong Utrecht
26.0
Dordrecht
26.0
Roda
24.9
Jong Ajax
24.8
VVV Venlo
24.2
Jong PSV U21
24.1
Jong AZ
23.4
Den Bosch
23.1
FC Eindhoven
22.9
FC Volendam
22.8
MVV
22.7
De Graafschap
22.5
Waalwijk
22.3
Willem II
22.1
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.2%
Under 9.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.6%
Under 3.5
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
72.5%
Under 21.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jong AZ
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.93
0.50
0.93
0.81
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.67
1.00
0.60
1.00
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.67
0.90
0.44
0.89
0.83
0.92
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Roda) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Roda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.73
0.67
0.80
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.00
1.33
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.74
1.00
0.55
0.67
0.92
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong AZ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jong AZ over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong AZ over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong AZ over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Roda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Roda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Roda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →