Jong PSV U21 start the match at home after a draw against Jong Ajax, while Den Bosch come off a defeat to Vitesse. The model favours a home win, giving Jong PSV a 56% chance, a 23% chance of a draw and 21% for Den Bosch. The expected total is 3.3 goals, with the most likely total being three and the single most probable scoreline 1-1 at a 10.1% probability. Jong PSV’s home form shows they average 1.78 goals scored and 1.11 conceded against weaker opponents, whereas Den Bosch’s away form sees them net 2.0 goals and concede 2.0 against stronger opposition. The model’s selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.3% with a 6% edge, Under 7.5 at 97.1% with a 3% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.8% with a 7% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.3% with a 7% edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.7% with a 6% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.0% with a 9% edge, Under 6.5 at 93.0% with a 4% edge, and Home +2 handicap at 91.3% with an 8% edge.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jong PSV U21 win
58.0%
Avg Implied 47.0% · @ 1.97
Edge
+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.04
Dafabet
2.03
Betano
2.02
William Hil
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Draw
21.5%
Avg Implied 23.5% · @ 3.94
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.20
Pinnacle
4.12
BetVictor
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Den Bosch win
20.5%
Avg Implied 29.5% · @ 3.13
Edge
-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.30
Dafabet
3.25
1xBet
3.24
Marathonbet
3.24
Pinnacle
3.21
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jong PSV U21
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.70
1.75
1.31
1.50
2.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.55
1.45
1.71
1.57
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (19)
1.68
1.84
1.78
1.11
1.60
2.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Den Bosch) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Den Bosch
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.93
1.53
1.65
1.54
2.31
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.25
1.00
2.33
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.56
1.92
1.62
1.54
1.50
2.33
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong PSV U21) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.8%
@ 1.06+0.5%
Under 1.5
12.2%
@ 7.30-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Under
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
Marathonbet
7.50
Unibet
7.50
1xBet
7.50
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68.9%
@ 1.29-3.1%
Under 2.5
31.1%
@ 3.33+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.42
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.35
10Bet
3.30
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
47.5%
@ 1.78-5.2%
Under 3.5
52.5%
@ 1.98+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.89
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.07
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Betano
2.00
Both teams to score
Yes
66.0%
@ 1.29-5.5%
No
34.0%
@ 3.24+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.30
1xBet
1.28
No
BetVictor
3.40
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.26
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.5%@ 8.84+4.3%
1-1
9.2%@ 8.88+4.1%
2-0
7.3%@ 14.39+4.1%
3-1
7.1%@ 12.10+3.3%
2-2
6.2%@ 9.67+1.4%
1-0
5.6%@ 14.52+2.5%
1-2
5.5%@ 11.19+1.4%
3-0
5.5%@ 20.21+3.2%
Jong PSV U21 goals ↓
Den Bosch goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
2.9%
2.4%
1.1%
0.3%
1
5.6%
9.2%
5.5%
2.4%
0.8%
2
7.3%
9.5%
6.2%
2.7%
0.9%
3
5.5%
7.1%
4.6%
2.0%
0.7%
4
3.1%
4.0%
2.6%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jong PSV U21 goals (down), columns = Den Bosch goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Jong PSV U21 is 0.20 points better than Den Bosch in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Jong PSV U21 is 0.06 goals better than Den Bosch in terms of goals scored per game (1.74 vs 1.68).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Jong PSV U21 is 0.19 goals better than Den Bosch in terms of goals conceded per game (1.68 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Jong PSV U21 is 4.3 percentage points better than Den Bosch in terms of average possession (52% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Jong PSV U21
For 6.9 · Against 3.2 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 9.9 · Total 19.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Den Bosch
For 5.6 · Against 5.6 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 12.0 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Jong PSV U21
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.0
11.2
3.2
2.9
3.5
23.8
23.3
24.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
11.0
10.0
11.8
3.6
3.3
3.8
24.4
23.1
25.4
vs Weaker (29)
10.3
10.0
10.7
2.9
2.6
3.2
23.3
23.4
23.2
% over line
58%
52%
64%
40%
28%
52%
62%
64%
60%
% under line
42%
48%
36%
60%
72%
48%
38%
36%
40%
This opponent (Den Bosch) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Den Bosch
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.0
11.9
12.2
3.1
3.0
3.2
23.0
21.9
24.4
vs Stronger (8)
12.4
11.8
13.3
2.4
2.2
2.7
22.8
23.0
22.3
vs Similar (41)
11.9
11.8
12.1
3.3
3.2
3.3
23.2
21.9
24.8
vs Weaker (1)
15.0
15.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
18.0
18.0
-
% over line
74%
77%
71%
40%
37%
43%
62%
54%
71%
% under line
26%
23%
29%
60%
63%
57%
38%
46%
29%
This opponent (Jong PSV U21) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.2
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.9
Dordrecht
11.3
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Heracles
10.9
Helmond Sport
10.7
Jong PSV U21
10.6
Jong AZ
10.6
FC Eindhoven
10.6
Jong Ajax
10.5
Emmen
10.3
FC Volendam
10.3
MVV
10.2
Vitesse
10.0
Waalwijk
10.0
Roda
9.9
NAC Breda
9.8
Jong Utrecht
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.5
Dordrecht
4.3
FC OSS
4.1
Emmen
3.9
NAC Breda
3.9
Jong Ajax
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
VVV Venlo
3.5
Heracles
3.5
Jong AZ
3.5
FC Volendam
3.4
Roda
3.3
Helmond Sport
3.3
Waalwijk
3.3
De Graafschap
3.3
Jong PSV U21
3.2
MVV
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Jong Utrecht
3.0
Almere City FC
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.0
Vitesse
26.7
Dordrecht
25.8
Emmen
25.7
Jong Utrecht
25.5
Helmond Sport
25.4
Jong Ajax
25.0
Roda
24.8
Heracles
24.1
Jong PSV U21
23.8
VVV Venlo
23.7
Jong AZ
23.4
Den Bosch
23.3
NAC Breda
22.9
FC Eindhoven
22.9
De Graafschap
22.7
MVV
22.5
Waalwijk
22.4
FC Volendam
22.3
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
63.9%
@ 1.54+4.1%
Under 9.5
36.1%
@ 2.29-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.53
Marathonbet
1.51
1xBet
1.51
Under
Pinnacle
2.38
Marathonbet
2.29
1xBet
2.29
Unibet
2.20
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
40.4%
Under 3.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
66.4%
Under 21.5
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jong PSV U21 or Draw
79.5%
Avg Implied 70.6% · @ 1.32
Edge
+8.9%
58%
21%
20%
covers Jong PSV U21 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.37
William Hil
1.35
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Jong PSV U21 or Den Bosch
78.5%
Avg Implied 77.0% · @ 1.21
Edge
+1.5%
58%
21%
20%
covers Jong PSV U21 + Den Bosch
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Draw or Den Bosch
42.0%
Avg Implied 52.4% · @ 1.78
Edge
-10.4%
58%
21%
20%
covers Draw + Den Bosch
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.83
Betano
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 0.5
Over
89.5%
@ 1.08+3.2%
Under
10.5%
@ 6.80-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Under
1xBet
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Jong PSV U21 over/under 1.5
Over
65.8%
@ 1.47+2.7%
Under
34.2%
@ 2.51-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
BetVictor
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Under
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.58
Marathonbet
2.53
1xBet
2.53
Unibet
2.50
Jong PSV U21 over/under 2.5
Over
39.2%
@ 2.51+2.2%
Under
60.8%
@ 1.47-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
BetVictor
2.55
Betano
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Betfair
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
Betfair
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Betano
1.47
Jong PSV U21 over/under 3.5
Over
19.1%
@ 4.93+0.4%
Under
80.9%
@ 1.14-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
4.90
Betano
4.75
Unibet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Den Bosch over/under 0.5
Over
72.8%
@ 1.16-7.1%
Under
27.2%
@ 4.60+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Under
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
1xBet
4.70
Betano
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Den Bosch over/under 1.5
Over
37.4%
@ 1.85-12.7%
Under
62.6%
@ 1.86+12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
Unibet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.90
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
Den Bosch over/under 2.5
Over
14.3%
@ 3.74-10.4%
Under
85.7%
@ 1.23+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
1xBet
3.74
Pinnacle
3.71
Under
Betano
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Den Bosch over/under 3.5
Over
4.3%
@ 8.93-6.2%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.05+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.60
Betfair
8.50
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Jong PSV U21, so a minus line means Jong PSV U21 give that many goals of a start and Den Bosch receive them. At -1, Jong PSV U21 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jong PSV U21 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jong PSV U21)
Jong PSV U21 -2
19.5%
@ 5.81+4.1%
Draw -2
17.5%
@ 5.75+1.9%
Den Bosch +2
62.9%
@ 1.31-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.75
Unibet
5.30
Draw
Marathonbet
6.05
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Unibet
5.20
Away
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Handicap -1 (Jong PSV U21)
Jong PSV U21 -1
37.1%
@ 3.12+8.2%
Draw -1
21.0%
@ 4.20-0.4%
Den Bosch +1
42.0%
@ 1.80-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Betfair
3.10
Marathonbet
3.08
Unibet
2.95
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.90
Away
Unibet
1.83
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
Handicap +1 (Jong PSV U21)
Jong PSV U21 +1
79.5%
@ 1.31+11.0%
Draw +1
11.8%
@ 5.46-4.7%
Den Bosch -1
8.7%
@ 5.98-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.70
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Away
Marathonbet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Handicap +2 (Jong PSV U21)
Jong PSV U21 +2
91.3%
@ 1.10+7.8%
Draw +2
5.8%
@ 9.50-3.8%
Den Bosch -2
2.9%
@ 13.50-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Bet365
9.50
Betfair
9.50
Away
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jong PSV U21
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.73
0.88
0.31
1.07
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.55
0.86
0.43
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (19)
1.05
0.84
0.89
0.22
1.20
1.40
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Den Bosch) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Den Bosch
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.88
0.71
0.46
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.33
1.67
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.76
1.00
0.46
0.42
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong PSV U21) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.2%
@ 1.17-6.1%
Under 0.5
26.8%
@ 4.47+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Under
Betfair
5.20
William Hil
4.60
BetVictor
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.33
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.9%
@ 1.85-13.3%
Under 1.5
63.1%
@ 1.87+13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
SBO
1.94
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
William Hil
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Betfair
1.91
10Bet
1.91
SBO
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.6%
@ 3.73-11.2%
Under 2.5
86.4%
@ 1.23+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Betano
3.75
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.68
Under
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
Betfair
1.22
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.4%
@ 1.52-5.6%
Under
44.6%
@ 2.38+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.53
10Bet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Unibet
1.49
Under
Pinnacle
2.51
10Bet
2.40
Unibet
2.40
1xBet
2.33
Betano
2.30
Jong PSV U21 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.7%
@ 3.55-8.5%
Under
82.3%
@ 1.26+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
1xBet
3.50
10Bet
3.40
Under
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Jong PSV U21 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.2%
@ 8.97-7.1%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.03+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.90
Betano
8.50
10Bet
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Den Bosch over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.0%
@ 1.79-9.8%
Under
58.0%
@ 1.92+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
Unibet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Under
Pinnacle
1.96
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Betano
1.91
Marathonbet
1.89
Den Bosch over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.6%
@ 4.97-8.0%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.14+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.35
Betano
4.85
1xBet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Den Bosch over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
@ 12.00-6.1%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.02+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jong PSV U21
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.97
0.88
1.00
0.43
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.91
0.86
1.14
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
0.63
1.00
0.89
0.89
0.40
1.10
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Den Bosch) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Den Bosch
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.10
0.65
0.94
1.08
1.31
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.84
1.16
0.62
1.08
1.08
1.25
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong PSV U21) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.0%
@ 1.10-5.6%
Under 0.5
20.0%
@ 6.53+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Under
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.80
Betano
6.40
William Hil
6.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.6%
@ 1.48-12.1%
Under 1.5
49.4%
@ 2.49+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Unibet
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Under
Betano
2.55
Marathonbet
2.53
1xBet
2.53
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.45
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.4%
@ 2.50-16.6%
Under 2.5
79.6%
@ 1.47+16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
William Hil
2.62
Unibet
2.48
Betano
2.45
Marathonbet
2.41
Under
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Unibet
1.46
William Hil
1.44
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.3%
@ 1.36-8.1%
Under
39.7%
@ 2.93+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Under
Betano
3.00
10Bet
2.95
1xBet
2.90
Jong PSV U21 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.1%
@ 2.62-13.2%
Under
77.9%
@ 1.43+13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.65
1xBet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.58
Betano
2.57
Under
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Jong PSV U21 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.0%
@ 6.27-8.8%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.09+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
6.50
1xBet
6.50
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Den Bosch over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.8%
@ 1.52-10.4%
Under
49.2%
@ 2.40+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Under
Betano
2.45
10Bet
2.40
1xBet
2.34
Den Bosch over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.4%
@ 3.51-9.0%
Under
82.6%
@ 1.25+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.35
Under
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Den Bosch over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.7%
@ 8.97-6.7%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.04+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.90
10Bet
9.00
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.1%
Under 7.5
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+3.1%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+7.1%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.04
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+6.7%
Away under 3.5 goals
95.7%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.01
-
+6.2%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.0%
1.09
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
-
-
+8.8%
Under 6.5
93.0%
1.07
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
+3.6%
Home +2 handicap
91.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
-
-
-
+7.8%
Home over 0.5 goals
89.5%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
+3.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.4%
1.14
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
-
+8.0%
Under 5.5 cards
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.8%
1.06
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.05
Unibet
1.05
+0.5%
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
Betfair
1.22
+11.2%
Away under 2.5 goals
85.7%
1.23
Betano
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+10.4%
Under 5.5
85.0%
1.17
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.15
+5.6%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.6%
1.25
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
-
+9.0%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.3%
1.26
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
-
+8.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
80.9%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
-0.4%
Over 19.5 fouls
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.0%
1.10
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.07
-
-5.6%
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.6%
1.47
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Unibet
1.46
William Hil
1.44
+16.6%
Home or Draw
79.5%
1.32
Betano
1.37
William Hil
1.35
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
+8.9%
Home +1 handicap
79.5%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
+11.0%
Home or Away
78.5%
1.21
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+1.5%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.9%
1.43
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
-
+13.2%
Under 4.5 cards
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
75.1%
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
-
-
-
+3.9%
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
1.17
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
William Hil
1.17
-6.1%
Away over 0.5 goals
72.8%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-7.1%
Under 4.5
71.5%
1.42
Pinnacle
1.46
10Bet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.40
+6.2%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Jong PSV U21
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joel Van Den Berg67%
Austyn Jones50%
Fabio Kluit40%
Souleymane Sidibe20%
Shuryjano Cornecion20%
Madi Monamay0%
Essien Bassey0%
Jordy Bawuah0%
Boet Mulders0%
Manuel Bahaty0%
Michael Bresser0%
Jim Koller0%
Gino Verhulst0%
Fabian Merién0%
Khadim Ngom0%
Samuel Dumbili0%
Kyano Penso0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joel Van Den Berg33%
Michael Bresser33%
Manuel Bahaty25%
Austyn Jones25%
Madi Monamay0%
Souleymane Sidibe0%
Essien Bassey0%
Jordy Bawuah0%
Fabio Kluit0%
Boet Mulders0%
Jim Koller0%
Gino Verhulst0%
Fabian Merién0%
Khadim Ngom0%
Shuryjano Cornecion0%
Samuel Dumbili0%
Kyano Penso0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jim Koller40%
Michael Bresser33%
Fabio Kluit20%
Shuryjano Cornecion20%
Madi Monamay0%
Souleymane Sidibe0%
Essien Bassey0%
Joel Van Den Berg0%
Jordy Bawuah0%
Boet Mulders0%
Manuel Bahaty0%
Gino Verhulst0%
Fabian Merién0%
Khadim Ngom0%
Austyn Jones0%
Samuel Dumbili0%
Kyano Penso0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Austyn Jones75%
Fabio Kluit40%
Shuryjano Cornecion40%
Joel Van Den Berg33%
Jordy Bawuah33%
Samuel Dumbili25%
Madi Monamay0%
Souleymane Sidibe0%
Essien Bassey0%
Boet Mulders0%
Manuel Bahaty0%
Michael Bresser0%
Jim Koller0%
Gino Verhulst0%
Fabian Merién0%
Khadim Ngom0%
Kyano Penso0%
Den Bosch
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sebastian Karlsson Grach50%
Kévin Monzialo25%
Ilias Boumassaoudi25%
Devon De Corte25%
Sheddy Barglan25%
Kevin Felida0%
Jeffrey Fortes0%
Jasper Van Heertum0%
Stan Maas0%
Pepijn van de Merbel0%
Mees Laros0%
Bohao Wang0%
Hessel Eikelboom0%
Rafi Wolters0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kevin Felida50%
Jeffrey Fortes0%
Jasper Van Heertum0%
Kévin Monzialo0%
Stan Maas0%
Pepijn van de Merbel0%
Sebastian Karlsson Grach0%
Ilias Boumassaoudi0%
Mees Laros0%
Bohao Wang0%
Devon De Corte0%
Hessel Eikelboom0%
Rafi Wolters0%
Sheddy Barglan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kévin Monzialo50%
Mees Laros25%
Devon De Corte25%
Sheddy Barglan25%
Kevin Felida0%
Jeffrey Fortes0%
Jasper Van Heertum0%
Stan Maas0%
Pepijn van de Merbel0%
Sebastian Karlsson Grach0%
Ilias Boumassaoudi0%
Bohao Wang0%
Hessel Eikelboom0%
Rafi Wolters0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sebastian Karlsson Grach50%
Kévin Monzialo25%
Ilias Boumassaoudi25%
Kevin Felida0%
Jeffrey Fortes0%
Jasper Van Heertum0%
Stan Maas0%
Pepijn van de Merbel0%
Mees Laros0%
Bohao Wang0%
Devon De Corte0%
Hessel Eikelboom0%
Rafi Wolters0%
Sheddy Barglan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Jong PSV U21's squad is €2m more valuable than Den Bosch's (€7m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Jong PSV U21's attack is €2m less valuable than Den Bosch's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Jong PSV U21's midfield is €2m more valuable than Den Bosch's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Jong PSV U21's defence is €1m more valuable than Den Bosch's (€3m vs €1m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Vitesse
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht