Jong PSV U21 are favoured to win, with a 55% chance of triumph, a 23% chance of a draw and a 22% chance of a Jong Ajax victory. The model expects 3.2 goals, most likely a 3-goal total with a 22% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 10.8% chance. In recent home form Jong PSV have scored an average of 1.71 goals and conceded 1.71 against similar opposition, while Jong Ajax, playing away, have averaged 1.14 goals scored and 2.21 conceded to comparable teams. The suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.3% with a 4% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.8% with a 6% edge, Under 7.5 at 97.6% with a 7% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.4% with a 10% edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.9% with a 5% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.1% with a 13% edge, Under 6.5 at 94.0% with a 7% edge and Home +2 handicap at 90.9% with a 1% edge.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Home win, fell short as Jong PSV U21 and Jong Ajax settled for a 1-1 draw, ending their recent streaks of draws. The model had given the home side a 54% chance of victory, yet the result was a tie, so the pick was wrong. The model’s selection of Home win was therefore incorrect. Every suggested pick was a hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.9%, Under 7.5 at 97.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.9%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.2%, Under 6.5 at 94.0%, and Home +2 handicap at 90.9%. All probabilities were expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jong PSV U21 win✗ Miss
54.1%
Avg Implied 60.0% · @ 1.55
Edge
-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.59
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Draw✓ Hit
23.7%
Avg Implied 20.1% · @ 4.61
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.80
Dafabet
4.80
Betfair
4.75
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.65
Jong Ajax win✗ Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied 19.8% · @ 4.68
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Pinnacle
4.88
Dafabet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jong PSV U21
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.77
1.80
1.33
1.53
2.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.60
1.50
1.83
1.67
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (20)
1.70
1.90
1.78
1.11
1.64
2.55
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong Ajax
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
2.03
1.60
1.87
1.13
2.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.19
2.08
1.25
1.92
1.14
2.21
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
1.75
3.00
1.67
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong PSV U21) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.7%
@ 1.05-4.7%
Under 1.5
16.3%
@ 8.02+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Under
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
BetVictor
8.50
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
8.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.7%
@ 1.25-12.8%
Under 2.5
38.3%
@ 3.65+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Under
BetVictor
3.90
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.79
Unibet
3.65
10Bet
3.65
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.5%
@ 1.67-16.7%
Under 3.5
60.5%
@ 2.14+16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
SBO
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.22
Betfair
2.20
SBO
2.19
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.5%
@ 1.33-8.3%
No
38.5%
@ 3.07+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.34
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
No
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.04
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
10.9%@ 10.41+6.5%
2-1
9.8%@ 8.49+4.4%
2-0
8.0%@ 12.38+4.4%
1-0
7.2%@ 14.39+4.0%
3-1
6.4%@ 10.01+1.9%
1-2
6.0%@ 14.94+3.0%
2-2
5.9%@ 10.96+1.8%
3-0
5.3%@ 14.21+2.1%
Jong PSV U21 goals ↓
Jong Ajax goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
4.0%
3.0%
1.2%
0.4%
1
7.2%
11%
6.0%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.0%
9.8%
5.9%
2.4%
0.7%
3
5.3%
6.4%
3.9%
1.6%
0.5%
4
2.6%
3.2%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jong PSV U21 goals (down), columns = Jong Ajax goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Jong PSV U21 is 0.55 points better than Jong Ajax in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 0.92).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Jong PSV U21 is 0.42 goals better than Jong Ajax in terms of goals scored per game (1.74 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Jong PSV U21 is 0.24 goals better than Jong Ajax in terms of goals conceded per game (1.68 vs 1.92).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Jong PSV U21 and Jong Ajax are level in average possession (both 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Jong PSV U21
For 7.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 9.5 · Total 19.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Jong Ajax
For 4.4 · Against 6.4 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 13.3 · Total 25.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Jong PSV U21
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.0
11.2
3.1
2.8
3.5
23.5
22.8
24.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
11.1
10.1
11.8
3.5
3.2
3.8
24.5
23.1
25.4
vs Weaker (30)
10.3
10.0
10.7
2.8
2.5
3.2
22.9
22.7
23.2
% over line
60%
56%
64%
38%
24%
52%
60%
60%
60%
% under line
40%
44%
36%
62%
76%
48%
40%
40%
40%
This opponent (Jong Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong Ajax
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.8
10.3
3.6
3.6
3.5
25.0
25.5
24.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (43)
10.4
10.4
10.3
3.5
3.6
3.5
24.8
25.4
24.3
vs Weaker (7)
11.9
12.4
10.5
3.7
3.6
4.0
26.3
26.0
27.0
% over line
64%
56%
72%
52%
60%
44%
68%
68%
68%
% under line
36%
44%
28%
48%
40%
56%
32%
32%
32%
This opponent (Jong PSV U21) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.2
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.9
Dordrecht
11.3
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Heracles
10.9
Helmond Sport
10.7
Jong PSV U21
10.6
Jong Ajax
10.6
FC Eindhoven
10.6
Jong AZ
10.5
Emmen
10.3
FC Volendam
10.3
MVV
10.2
Vitesse
10.0
Waalwijk
10.0
Roda
9.9
NAC Breda
9.8
Jong Utrecht
9.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.5
Dordrecht
4.3
FC OSS
4.1
Jong Ajax
3.9
Emmen
3.9
NAC Breda
3.9
Den Bosch
3.7
VVV Venlo
3.5
Heracles
3.5
Jong AZ
3.4
FC Volendam
3.4
Roda
3.3
Helmond Sport
3.3
Waalwijk
3.3
De Graafschap
3.3
MVV
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Almere City FC
3.0
Jong Utrecht
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.0
Vitesse
26.7
Dordrecht
25.8
Emmen
25.7
Jong Utrecht
25.5
Helmond Sport
25.4
Jong Ajax
25.0
Roda
24.8
Heracles
24.1
VVV Venlo
23.7
Jong PSV U21
23.5
Jong AZ
23.5
Den Bosch
23.3
NAC Breda
22.9
FC Eindhoven
22.9
De Graafschap
22.7
MVV
22.5
Waalwijk
22.4
FC Volendam
22.3
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.7%
@ 1.50-2.8%
Under 9.5
41.3%
@ 2.39+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.56
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.50
Unibet
1.48
1xBet
1.46
Under
Pinnacle
2.45
Unibet
2.43
Betano
2.42
Marathonbet
2.41
1xBet
2.34
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.2%
Under 3.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
69.7%
Under 21.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jong PSV U21 or Draw✓ Hit
78.5%
Avg Implied 79.8% · @ 1.17
Edge
-1.3%
54%
24%
22%
covers Jong PSV U21 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Jong PSV U21 or Jong Ajax✗ Miss
77.6%
Avg Implied 80.4% · @ 1.16
Edge
-2.7%
54%
24%
22%
covers Jong PSV U21 + Jong Ajax
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Draw or Jong Ajax✓ Hit
43.8%
Avg Implied 39.8% · @ 2.35
Edge
+4.0%
54%
24%
22%
covers Draw + Jong Ajax
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.50
Betano
2.45
10Bet
2.38
1xBet
2.36
Marathonbet
2.36
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.3%
@ 1.05-1.5%
Under
11.7%
@ 9.20+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Under
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
9.50
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
8.40
Betano
7.60
Jong PSV U21 over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
63.1%
@ 1.30-8.1%
Under
36.9%
@ 3.22+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.35
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.42
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
Marathonbet
3.26
Betfair
3.25
Jong PSV U21 over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
36.2%
@ 1.97-10.9%
Under
63.8%
@ 1.76+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
Under
Pinnacle
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
Betano
1.78
BetVictor
1.75
Jong PSV U21 over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
16.9%
@ 3.43-10.0%
Under
83.1%
@ 1.27+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.60
Pinnacle
3.58
10Bet
3.55
Superbet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Under
1xBet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Jong Ajax over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.3%
@ 1.24-2.5%
Under
27.7%
@ 3.67+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
4.06
BetVictor
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.65
Jong Ajax over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.7%
@ 2.19-5.6%
Under
63.3%
@ 1.60+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.25
10Bet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Pinnacle
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
BetVictor
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Jong Ajax over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.9%
@ 4.82-5.3%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.14+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
BetVictor
4.80
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Jong Ajax over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 10.85-4.5%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.03+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
1xBet
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Jong PSV U21, so a minus line means Jong PSV U21 give that many goals of a start and Jong Ajax receive them. At -1, Jong PSV U21 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jong PSV U21 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jong PSV U21)Actual: Jong Ajax
Jong PSV U21 -2
17.8%
@ 3.75-6.0%
Draw -2
17.1%
@ 4.63-2.1%
Jong Ajax +2
65.0%
@ 1.57+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Unibet
3.60
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Superbet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Away
Unibet
1.58
Superbet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Handicap -1 (Jong PSV U21)Actual: Jong Ajax
Jong PSV U21 -1
35.0%
@ 2.23-5.0%
Draw -1
21.2%
@ 4.05-0.8%
Jong Ajax +1
43.8%
@ 2.35+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.30
Superbet
2.27
10Bet
2.25
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Away
Betfair
2.40
10Bet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.36
Unibet
2.33
Superbet
2.32
Handicap +1 (Jong PSV U21)Actual: Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21 +1
78.5%
@ 1.16+0.7%
Draw +1
12.3%
@ 7.09-0.4%
Jong Ajax -1
9.1%
@ 9.50-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
Unibet
6.25
Away
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
9.00
Handicap +2 (Jong PSV U21)Actual: Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21 +2
90.9%
@ 1.04+1.4%
Draw +2
6.1%
@ 14.50-0.3%
Jong Ajax -2
3.0%
@ 23.00-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Away
Bet365
23.00
Betfair
23.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jong PSV U21
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.70
0.93
0.27
1.00
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (20)
1.00
0.80
0.89
0.22
1.09
1.27
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong Ajax
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.87
0.80
0.80
0.33
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.92
0.67
0.92
0.36
0.93
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
1.33
0.33
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong PSV U21) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.9%
@ 1.15-9.9%
Under 0.5
29.1%
@ 4.84+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Under
Betfair
5.50
William Hil
5.00
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Superbet
4.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
35.0%
@ 1.78-17.3%
Under 1.5
65.0%
@ 1.95+17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
SBO
1.86
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.79
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
Betfair
2.00
SBO
1.98
Superbet
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.8%
@ 3.38-13.6%
Under 2.5
86.2%
@ 1.28+13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.50
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.40
Marathonbet
3.36
1xBet
3.36
Under
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
54.0%
@ 1.39-12.8%
Under
46.0%
@ 2.80+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
2.93
Unibet
2.80
10Bet
2.80
1xBet
2.80
Superbet
2.80
Jong PSV U21 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.3%
@ 2.84-16.5%
Under
83.7%
@ 1.38+16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.92
Marathonbet
2.89
Pinnacle
2.88
Superbet
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.41
1xBet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Jong PSV U21 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 6.80-10.1%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.07+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
7.00
1xBet
6.90
Superbet
6.70
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Jong Ajax over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
35.3%
@ 1.99-11.4%
Under
64.7%
@ 1.74+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.06
Betano
2.05
Unibet
1.97
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.97
Under
1xBet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.73
Jong Ajax over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.7%
@ 5.97-5.7%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.09+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.35
10Bet
6.00
Betano
5.90
Superbet
5.90
1xBet
5.70
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
Jong Ajax over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 17.67-4.0%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jong PSV U21
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.07
0.87
1.07
0.53
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.70
1.00
0.83
1.33
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.70
1.10
0.89
0.89
0.55
1.27
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong Ajax
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.17
0.80
1.07
0.80
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.69
1.15
0.58
1.00
0.79
1.29
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.25
1.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong PSV U21) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.6%
@ 1.08-6.3%
Under 0.5
19.4%
@ 7.16+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Under
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.80
Betano
6.90
Superbet
6.60
William Hil
6.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
47.9%
@ 1.43-16.6%
Under 1.5
52.1%
@ 2.60+16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Under
Betano
2.72
Marathonbet
2.66
1xBet
2.66
Bet365
2.62
Unibet
2.55
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.9%
@ 2.35-19.7%
Under 2.5
80.1%
@ 1.54+19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.45
Superbet
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.29
Under
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.54
1xBet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.51
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
60.6%
@ 1.25-13.5%
Under
39.4%
@ 3.59+13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Under
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Superbet
3.50
Jong PSV U21 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
22.5%
@ 2.17-20.2%
Under
77.5%
@ 1.62+20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.25
10Bet
2.20
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.14
1xBet
2.13
Under
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
10Bet
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Jong PSV U21 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.8%
@ 4.64-14.2%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.16+14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.85
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.60
Betano
4.35
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Jong Ajax over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
47.6%
@ 1.66-8.0%
Under
52.4%
@ 2.09+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.66
10Bet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Under
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Jong Ajax over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.1%
@ 4.24-8.7%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.18+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.45
Superbet
4.35
1xBet
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Betano
4.00
Under
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Jong Ajax over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 10.75-6.6%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.03+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-
+10.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.2%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
-
+14.2%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.0%
1.07
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.3%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
88.3%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.9%
1.18
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
+8.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
86.7%
1.21
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.21
+9.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.2%
1.28
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
+13.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.1%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.7%
1.38
Pinnacle
1.41
1xBet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Betano
1.37
+16.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.7%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
-4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
83.1%
1.27
1xBet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.6%
1.08
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
-6.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.1%
1.54
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.54
1xBet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.51
+19.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
78.5%
1.17
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Betfair
1.17
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
78.5%
1.16
Unibet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
77.6%
1.16
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Superbet
1.17
-2.7%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
73.9%
1.49
Pinnacle
1.53
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Betfair
1.50
+11.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
72.3%
1.24
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.9%
1.15
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
10Bet
1.15
-9.9%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.7%
1.28
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
-0.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Jong PSV U21
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joel Van Den Berg67%
Austyn Jones50%
Fabio Kluit40%
Souleymane Sidibe20%
Shuryjano Cornecion20%
Madi Monamay0%
Essien Bassey0%
Jordy Bawuah0%
Boet Mulders0%
Manuel Bahaty0%
Michael Bresser0%
Jim Koller0%
Gino Verhulst0%
Fabian Merién0%
Khadim Ngom0%
Samuel Dumbili0%
Kyano Penso0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joel Van Den Berg33%
Michael Bresser33%
Manuel Bahaty25%
Austyn Jones25%
Madi Monamay0%
Souleymane Sidibe0%
Essien Bassey0%
Jordy Bawuah0%
Fabio Kluit0%
Boet Mulders0%
Jim Koller0%
Gino Verhulst0%
Fabian Merién0%
Khadim Ngom0%
Shuryjano Cornecion0%
Samuel Dumbili0%
Kyano Penso0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jim Koller40%
Michael Bresser33%
Fabio Kluit20%
Shuryjano Cornecion20%
Madi Monamay0%
Souleymane Sidibe0%
Essien Bassey0%
Joel Van Den Berg0%
Jordy Bawuah0%
Boet Mulders0%
Manuel Bahaty0%
Gino Verhulst0%
Fabian Merién0%
Khadim Ngom0%
Austyn Jones0%
Samuel Dumbili0%
Kyano Penso0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Austyn Jones75%
Fabio Kluit40%
Shuryjano Cornecion40%
Joel Van Den Berg33%
Jordy Bawuah33%
Samuel Dumbili25%
Madi Monamay0%
Souleymane Sidibe0%
Essien Bassey0%
Boet Mulders0%
Manuel Bahaty0%
Michael Bresser0%
Jim Koller0%
Gino Verhulst0%
Fabian Merién0%
Khadim Ngom0%
Kyano Penso0%
Jong Ajax
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emre Ünüvar80%
Diego Pugno60%
Pharrel Nash40%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Avery Appiah0%
Jano Monserrate0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Jinairo Johnson0%
Marvyn Muzungu0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Jeshurun Simeon0%
Levi Acheampong0%
Mohamed Abdalla0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Diego Pugno40%
Jano Monserrate40%
Marvyn Muzungu40%
Jinairo Johnson33%
Avery Appiah25%
Pharrel Nash20%
Jeshurun Simeon20%
Levi Acheampong20%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Emre Ünüvar0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Mohamed Abdalla0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Levi Acheampong40%
Mohamed Abdalla25%
Diego Pugno20%
Jano Monserrate20%
Pharrel Nash20%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Avery Appiah0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Emre Ünüvar0%
Jinairo Johnson0%
Marvyn Muzungu0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Jeshurun Simeon0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Emre Ünüvar60%
Pharrel Nash40%
Jano Monserrate20%
Jeshurun Simeon20%
Levi Acheampong20%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Avery Appiah0%
Diego Pugno0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Jinairo Johnson0%
Marvyn Muzungu0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Mohamed Abdalla0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Jong PSV U21's squad is €12m less valuable than Jong Ajax's (€7m vs €19m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Jong PSV U21's attack is €3m less valuable than Jong Ajax's (€1m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Jong PSV U21 and Jong Ajax have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Jong PSV U21's defence is €9m less valuable than Jong Ajax's (€3m vs €12m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
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Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Vitesse
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht