Kairat Almaty are tipped to win this Kazakhstan Premier League clash, with a 49% chance of a home victory, 28% for a draw and 23% for a win by FK Tobol Kostanay. The model expects a modest 2.5 goals overall, and the most probable total is two goals, a 27% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 13.4% chance. Kairat, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, have averaged 1.5 goals scored and have not conceded any in recent matches. Tobol, on the road and facing a comparable side, have averaged 0.6 goals scored while conceding 1.2. The model’s suggested picks include an 78.8% chance of over 2.5 cards, a 76.2% chance of under 3.5 (though this was missed), a 75.6% chance of under 5.5 cards, a 72.1% chance of over 1.5 goals (which hit), and a 71.0% chance of under 11.5 corners.
Results analysis
The upset came as Kairat Almaty, riding a win in their last five, fell to a 2-3 defeat, leaving FK Tobol Kostanay to claim the victory. The pre-match favourite was the home win at 49 percent, but the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selection of Under 3.5, with a 76.2 percent probability, missed, while its pick of Over 1.5, at 72.1 percent, hit. The match finished 2-3, an away win that contradicted the 49 percent expectation of a home triumph. The final score and the actual result show the model’s prediction fell short.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kairat Almaty win✗ Miss
49.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay win✓ Hit
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kairat Almaty
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.16
1.00
0.70
1.00
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.33
2.00
1.50
0.00
1.25
3.00
vs Weaker (13)
0.85
0.77
0.88
0.88
0.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.22
1.92
0.62
1.10
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
5.00
vs Similar (11)
1.27
0.91
1.83
0.67
0.60
1.20
vs Weaker (10)
2.10
1.30
2.33
0.67
1.75
2.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.1%
Under 1.5
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.1%
Under 2.5
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.8%
Under 3.5
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.4%
No
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
11.5%
2-0
9.7%
0-0
9.6%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
6.8%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
4.9%
Kairat Almaty goals ↓
FK Tobol Kostanay goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
6.8%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
1
12%
13%
5.9%
1.9%
0.4%
2
9.7%
9.3%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
4.9%
4.7%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.9%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kairat Almaty goals (down), columns = FK Tobol Kostanay goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Astana
2.08
Aktobe
2.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.81
Kairat Almaty
1.62
Ordabasy
1.46
FK Aksu
1.38
Maqtaaral
1.19
Kaspiy
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.15
Shakhter Karagandy
1.15
Atyrau
1.12
Taraz
1.08
Arys
1.08
Akzhayik
0.96
Kairat Almaty is 0.19 points worse than FK Tobol Kostanay in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.81).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Astana
2.50
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.77
Aktobe
1.65
Ordabasy
1.38
Kairat Almaty
1.31
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.27
FK Aksu
1.23
Shakhter Karagandy
1.19
Atyrau
1.15
Maqtaaral
1.08
Taraz
1.04
Kaspiy
1.00
Arys
0.96
Akzhayik
0.73
Kairat Almaty is 0.46 goals worse than FK Tobol Kostanay in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.77).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Astana
0.81
Aktobe
1.08
Taraz
1.12
Akzhayik
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.23
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.27
Shakhter Karagandy
1.35
Arys
1.35
Kairat Almaty
1.38
FK Aksu
1.42
Maqtaaral
1.46
Ordabasy
1.50
Atyrau
1.50
Kaspiy
1.62
Kairat Almaty is 0.12 goals worse than FK Tobol Kostanay in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.27).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kairat Almaty
For 6.5 · Against 4.5 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FK Tobol Kostanay
For 3.4 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.8 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 18.5 · Total 30.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kairat Almaty
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (19)
11.0
13.0
9.0
0.5
0.6
0.3
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (13)
11.0
13.0
9.0
0.7
0.8
0.6
-
-
-
% over line
50%
100%
0%
5%
10%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
0%
100%
95%
90%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (23)
9.0
10.0
8.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
30.0
33.0
27.0
vs Stronger (2)
11.5
11.0
12.0
3.5
5.0
2.0
27.0
-
27.0
vs Similar (11)
7.3
9.0
6.5
2.1
2.0
2.2
33.0
33.0
-
vs Weaker (10)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
40%
50%
33%
17%
15%
20%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
60%
50%
67%
83%
85%
80%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kairat Almaty
11.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.0
FC Astana
9.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
6.0
FC Astana
5.5
Kairat Almaty
4.5
Kyzyl-Zhar
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.8%
Under 9.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.1%
Under 3.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kairat Almaty
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.58
0.40
0.40
0.89
0.78
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.83
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.25
vs Weaker (13)
0.54
0.46
0.38
0.50
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.61
0.48
0.77
0.31
0.40
0.70
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.36
0.83
0.33
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.40
0.83
0.33
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kairat Almaty over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kairat Almaty
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.58
0.60
0.30
0.11
0.89
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.50
1.17
1.00
0.00
0.25
1.75
vs Weaker (13)
0.31
0.31
0.50
0.38
0.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
58% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.96
0.74
1.15
0.31
0.70
1.30
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.55
1.00
0.33
0.20
0.80
vs Weaker (10)
1.50
0.90
1.50
0.33
1.50
1.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kairat Almaty over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kairat Almaty · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Adilet Sadybekov20%
Olzhas Baibek20%
Ofri Arad14%
Dastan Satpaev14%
Edmilson11%
Jorginho9%
Ricardinho9%
Aleksandr Martynovich0%
Valeriy Gromyko0%
Giorgi Zaria0%
Egor Sorokin0%
Dan Glazer0%
Luís Mata0%
Erkin Tapalov0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Aleksandr Shirobokov0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dastan Satpaev71%
Ofri Arad29%
Jorginho27%
Adilet Sadybekov20%
Valeriy Gromyko18%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy18%
Giorgi Zaria17%
Aleksandr Martynovich12%
Dan Glazer12%
Egor Sorokin9%
Erkin Tapalov9%
Ricardinho9%
Luís Mata0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Aleksandr Shirobokov0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Edmilson0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Olzhas Baibek0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aleksandr Shirobokov25%
Giorgi Zaria17%
Valeriy Gromyko9%
Ricardinho9%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy9%
Aleksandr Martynovich0%
Egor Sorokin0%
Dan Glazer0%
Luís Mata0%
Ofri Arad0%
Erkin Tapalov0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Jorginho0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Edmilson0%
Adilet Sadybekov0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Olzhas Baibek0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Valeriy Gromyko18%
Dastan Satpaev14%
Luís Mata11%
Edmilson11%
Jorginho9%
Aleksandr Martynovich0%
Giorgi Zaria0%
Egor Sorokin0%
Dan Glazer0%
Ofri Arad0%
Erkin Tapalov0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Aleksandr Shirobokov0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Ricardinho0%
Adilet Sadybekov0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy0%
Olzhas Baibek0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
Kairat Almaty and FK Tobol Kostanay have a similar squad value (both €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
KAS (4)
€1m
Kairat Almaty and FK Tobol Kostanay have a similar attack value (both €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
Kairat Almaty and FK Tobol Kostanay have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
Kairat Almaty and FK Tobol Kostanay have a similar defence value (both €4m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Astana
Aktobe
Ordabasy
FK Aksu
Maqtaaral
Kaspiy
Kyzyl-Zhar
Shakhter Karagandy
Atyrau
Taraz
Arys
Akzhayik