The contest between Kairat Almaty and FK Tobol Kostanay is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. The probabilities are 41% for a Kairat victory, 27% for a draw and 31% for a Tobol win. The average goal tally is 2.9, with the most likely total being two goals at 25%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.8% chance. Kairat’s home form shows an average of two goals scored and 1.25 conceded against similarly strong opponents, while Tobol’s away record is 1.6 scored and 2.4 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 11.5 corners at 86.5%, Under 5.5 cards at 79.1%, Over 1.5 goals at 78.9% (hit), Under 10.5 corners at 78.5% and Over 2.5 cards at 75.7%. Kairat entered the match after a win, whereas Tobol came off a defeat, adding to the uncertainty of the outcome.
Results analysis
The match ended in a 2-2 draw, a shock that left the pre-match favourite, Kairat Almaty, disappointed. The model had picked a home win with a 41% probability, but that call was wrong. The only other selection the model made was Over 1.5 goals, which hit with a 78.9% probability. Kairat had just returned from a win, while Tobol came off a defeat, yet both sides managed to find the net twice. The final score of 2-2 matched the model’s most likely total of two goals, but the outcome was a draw, not a home victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kairat Almaty win✗ Miss
41.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay win✗ Miss
31.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kairat Almaty
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.90
1.92
0.92
1.12
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.50
1.25
2.00
1.25
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (18)
1.44
0.67
1.89
0.78
1.00
0.56
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.33
1.23
0.85
1.29
1.71
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
1.50
1.42
1.43
0.71
1.60
2.40
vs Weaker (17)
1.18
1.18
1.00
1.00
1.27
1.27
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.9%
Under 1.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.3%
Under 2.5
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.9%
Under 3.5
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.6%
No
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
2-1
9.0%
1-0
7.7%
1-2
7.7%
0-0
6.9%
2-0
6.8%
0-1
6.4%
2-2 ✓
5.9%
Kairat Almaty goals ↓
FK Tobol Kostanay goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
6.4%
5.0%
2.2%
0.7%
1
7.7%
13%
7.7%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.8%
9.0%
5.9%
2.6%
0.8%
3
3.5%
4.6%
3.0%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.3%
1.8%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kairat Almaty goals (down), columns = FK Tobol Kostanay goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
1.96
FC Astana
1.92
Aktobe
1.79
Ordabasy
1.75
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.62
Yelimay Semey
1.54
Atyrau
1.46
Kaisar
1.42
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.21
Zhenys
1.00
Zhetysu
0.96
Turan Turkistan
0.83
Shakhter Karagandy
0.42
Kairat Almaty is 0.33 points better than FK Tobol Kostanay in terms of average points per game (1.96 vs 1.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Astana
1.62
Aktobe
1.62
Kairat Almaty
1.62
Ordabasy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.46
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.38
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.21
Atyrau
1.17
Kaisar
1.17
Zhenys
0.75
Zhetysu
0.71
Turan Turkistan
0.67
Shakhter Karagandy
0.50
Kairat Almaty is 0.25 goals better than FK Tobol Kostanay in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Astana
0.79
Atyrau
0.83
Kairat Almaty
0.88
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.96
Ordabasy
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.08
Aktobe
1.08
Kaisar
1.21
Zhenys
1.33
Yelimay Semey
1.33
Zhetysu
1.38
Turan Turkistan
1.62
Shakhter Karagandy
1.88
Kairat Almaty is 0.08 goals better than FK Tobol Kostanay in terms of goals conceded per game (0.88 vs 0.96).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kairat Almaty
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 0.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FK Tobol Kostanay
For 2.0 · Against 6.3 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 13.3 · Total 26.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kairat Almaty
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.1
0.0
0.2
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (30)
-
-
-
0.2
0.1
0.3
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
2%
0%
4%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
98%
100%
96%
-
-
-
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.8
9.0
1.7
1.6
1.9
30.1
29.0
31.5
vs Stronger (2)
11.0
14.0
8.0
4.5
4.0
5.0
28.0
29.0
27.0
vs Similar (24)
9.0
8.8
9.2
2.3
2.2
2.5
30.7
29.0
33.0
vs Weaker (24)
-
-
-
0.9
0.6
1.2
-
-
-
% over line
40%
60%
20%
26%
24%
28%
89%
80%
100%
% under line
60%
40%
80%
74%
76%
72%
11%
20%
0%
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kairat Almaty
11.0
Shakhter Karagandy
11.0
Aktobe
9.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.3
FC Astana
8.9
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
Aktobe
5.7
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
3.8
FC Astana
3.5
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Shakhter Karagandy
2.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.1
Ordabasy
30.0
Aktobe
27.0
FC Astana
25.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
32.2%
Under 9.5
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
56.0%
Under 3.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kairat Almaty
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.47
1.00
0.38
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.58
1.00
0.50
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (18)
0.67
0.39
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.44
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
0.92
0.23
0.76
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.14
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
0.76
0.47
0.83
0.33
0.73
0.55
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kairat Almaty over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kairat Almaty
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.43
0.92
0.54
0.65
0.35
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.67
1.00
0.75
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (18)
0.78
0.28
0.89
0.44
0.67
0.11
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.83
0.31
0.62
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.92
0.43
0.57
0.60
1.40
vs Weaker (17)
0.41
0.71
0.17
0.67
0.55
0.73
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kairat Almaty over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 11.5 corners
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kairat Almaty · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Adilet Sadybekov20%
Olzhas Baibek20%
Ofri Arad14%
Dastan Satpaev14%
Edmilson11%
Jorginho9%
Ricardinho9%
Aleksandr Martynovich0%
Valeriy Gromyko0%
Giorgi Zaria0%
Egor Sorokin0%
Dan Glazer0%
Luís Mata0%
Erkin Tapalov0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Aleksandr Shirobokov0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dastan Satpaev71%
Ofri Arad29%
Jorginho27%
Adilet Sadybekov20%
Valeriy Gromyko18%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy18%
Giorgi Zaria17%
Aleksandr Martynovich12%
Dan Glazer12%
Egor Sorokin9%
Erkin Tapalov9%
Ricardinho9%
Luís Mata0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Aleksandr Shirobokov0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Edmilson0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Olzhas Baibek0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aleksandr Shirobokov25%
Giorgi Zaria17%
Valeriy Gromyko9%
Ricardinho9%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy9%
Aleksandr Martynovich0%
Egor Sorokin0%
Dan Glazer0%
Luís Mata0%
Ofri Arad0%
Erkin Tapalov0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Jorginho0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Edmilson0%
Adilet Sadybekov0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Olzhas Baibek0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Valeriy Gromyko18%
Dastan Satpaev14%
Luís Mata11%
Edmilson11%
Jorginho9%
Aleksandr Martynovich0%
Giorgi Zaria0%
Egor Sorokin0%
Dan Glazer0%
Ofri Arad0%
Erkin Tapalov0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Aleksandr Shirobokov0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Ricardinho0%
Adilet Sadybekov0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy0%
Olzhas Baibek0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
ZHE (21)
€3m
Kairat Almaty and FK Tobol Kostanay have a similar squad value (both €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ZHE (8)
€1m
Kairat Almaty and FK Tobol Kostanay have a similar attack value (both €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Kairat Almaty and FK Tobol Kostanay have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
Kairat Almaty and FK Tobol Kostanay have a similar defence value (both €4m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Astana
Aktobe
Ordabasy
Yelimay Semey
Atyrau
Kaisar
Kyzyl-Zhar
Zhenys
Zhetysu
Turan Turkistan
Shakhter Karagandy
FK Aksu