This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaspiy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
0.97
2.69
1.00
1.57
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.83
0.91
2.17
1.08
1.45
0.73
vs Weaker (7)
3.29
1.14
4.25
0.75
2.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.3%
Under 2.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.9%
Under 3.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.8%
No
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.3%
1-1
10.5%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
3-0 ✓
7.8%
3-1
6.8%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
4.3%
Kairat Almaty goals ↓
Kaspiy goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
3.7%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
1
10.0%
11%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
3
7.8%
6.8%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
4
4.0%
3.5%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kairat Almaty goals (down), columns = Kaspiy goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Taraz
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.25
SD Family
2.25
Yelimay Semey
2.25
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.25
Jas Qyran
2.00
Aktobe
2.00
Ordabasy
2.00
Atyrau
1.80
Irtysh
1.75
AKAS
1.67
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.50
FC Astana
1.50
Ulytau
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.50
Kairat Almaty
1.50
Zhetisay
1.33
Talas Karatau
1.17
Arys
1.17
Okzhetpes
0.67
Ekibastuz
0.50
Yassy Turkistan
0.50
Kaspiy
0.50
Khan Tengri
0.33
Turan Turkistan
0.33
Maqtaaral
0.00
Kaisar
0.00
Zhenys
0.00
Shakhter Karagandy
0.00
Zhetysu
0.00
Kairat Almaty is 1.00 points better than Kaspiy in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Atyrau
2.80
Kairat Almaty
2.00
Jas Qyran
1.67
Zhetisay
1.67
Taraz
1.50
SD Family
1.50
AKAS
1.33
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Yelimay Semey
1.25
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.25
Aktobe
1.20
Talas Karatau
1.01
Arys
1.01
Ekibastuz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Ordabasy
1.00
Shakhter Karagandy
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.00
Kaspiy
1.00
Irtysh
0.75
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.50
Yassy Turkistan
0.50
FC Astana
0.50
Ulytau
0.50
Maqtaaral
0.00
Kaisar
0.00
Turan Turkistan
0.00
Zhenys
0.00
Zhetysu
0.00
Kairat Almaty is 1.00 goals better than Kaspiy in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.00
Akademiya Ontustik
0.50
FC Astana
0.50
Irtysh
0.50
Aktobe
0.60
Taraz
0.75
Atyrau
0.80
Jas Qyran
1.00
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.00
AKAS
1.00
Zhetisay
1.00
Zhenys
1.00
Yelimay Semey
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Ulytau
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.00
Zhetysu
1.00
Talas Karatau
1.28
Arys
1.28
Turan Turkistan
1.33
Okzhetpes
1.33
Maqtaaral
1.50
Ekibastuz
1.50
Kairat Almaty
1.50
Khan Tengri
1.67
SD Family
1.75
Yassy Turkistan
2.00
Shakhter Karagandy
2.00
Kaspiy
2.00
Kaisar
3.00
Kairat Almaty is 0.50 goals better than Kaspiy in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kairat Almaty or Draw✓ Hit
86.0%
Avg Implied -
64%
22%
14%
covers Kairat Almaty + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty or Kaspiy✓ Hit
78.0%
Avg Implied -
64%
22%
14%
covers Kairat Almaty + Kaspiy
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kaspiy✗ Miss
36.0%
Avg Implied -
64%
22%
14%
covers Draw + Kaspiy
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kairat Almaty over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
87.3%
Under
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
61.2%
Under
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
34.1%
Under
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
15.5%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
58.3%
Under
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kairat Almaty, so a minus line means Kairat Almaty give that many goals of a start and Kaspiy receive them. At -1, Kairat Almaty must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kairat Almaty win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kairat Almaty)Actual: Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty -2
20.9%
Draw -2
19.8%
Kaspiy +2
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kairat Almaty)Actual: Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty -1
40.7%
Draw -1
23.3%
Kaspiy +1
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kairat Almaty)Actual: Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty +1
86.0%
Draw +1
9.3%
Kaspiy -1
4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kairat Almaty)Actual: Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty +2
95.3%
Draw +2
3.5%
Kaspiy -2
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kairat Almaty
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.30
1.07
0.14
0.38
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.33
1.17
0.17
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (18)
0.67
0.28
1.00
0.12
0.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
77% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaspiy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.33
1.44
0.50
0.50
0.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.39
1.17
0.67
0.55
0.09
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
0.14
2.25
0.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
77% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kairat Almaty over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kairat Almaty
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.60
1.07
0.79
1.12
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.92
1.00
1.17
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (18)
1.17
0.39
1.12
0.50
1.20
0.30
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaspiy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.63
1.25
0.50
1.07
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.52
1.00
0.42
0.91
0.64
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
1.00
2.00
0.75
1.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kairat Almaty over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kairat Almaty
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Adilet Sadybekov20%
Olzhas Baibek20%
Ofri Arad14%
Dastan Satpaev14%
Edmilson11%
Jorginho9%
Ricardinho9%
Aleksandr Martynovich0%
Valeriy Gromyko0%
Giorgi Zaria0%
Egor Sorokin0%
Dan Glazer0%
Luís Mata0%
Erkin Tapalov0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Aleksandr Shirobokov0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dastan Satpaev71%
Ofri Arad29%
Jorginho27%
Adilet Sadybekov20%
Valeriy Gromyko18%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy18%
Giorgi Zaria17%
Aleksandr Martynovich12%
Dan Glazer12%
Egor Sorokin9%
Erkin Tapalov9%
Ricardinho9%
Luís Mata0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Aleksandr Shirobokov0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Edmilson0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Olzhas Baibek0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aleksandr Shirobokov25%
Giorgi Zaria17%
Valeriy Gromyko9%
Ricardinho9%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy9%
Aleksandr Martynovich0%
Egor Sorokin0%
Dan Glazer0%
Luís Mata0%
Ofri Arad0%
Erkin Tapalov0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Jorginho0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Edmilson0%
Adilet Sadybekov0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Olzhas Baibek0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Valeriy Gromyko18%
Dastan Satpaev14%
Luís Mata11%
Edmilson11%
Jorginho9%
Aleksandr Martynovich0%
Giorgi Zaria0%
Egor Sorokin0%
Dan Glazer0%
Ofri Arad0%
Erkin Tapalov0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Aleksandr Shirobokov0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Ricardinho0%
Adilet Sadybekov0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy0%
Olzhas Baibek0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Kairat Almaty's squad is €6m more valuable than Kaspiy's (€10m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Kairat Almaty's attack is €3m more valuable than Kaspiy's (€4m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Kairat Almaty and Kaspiy have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Kairat Almaty's defence is €2m more valuable than Kaspiy's (€4m vs €1m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →