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Kairat Almaty vs Ordabasy Result & Analysis

Date: 26/07/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 2-1
Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty
Vs
52%
27%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ordabasy
Ordabasy
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Kairat Almaty a 52% win probability against Ordabasy in the Kazakhstan: Premier League on 2026-07-26, with 27% for the draw and 22% for Ordabasy. The model estimates around 2.7 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (26%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (76%), Under 3.5 (72%).

Results analysis

Kairat Almaty finished 2-1 against Ordabasy (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 52% home win, 27% draw and 22% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (76%), Under 3.5 (72%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kairat Almaty win✓ Hit
51.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy win✗ Miss
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D11D12L23L01L14L23L31W01LA·KYZ17/10H·PAF21/10H·FC 26/10A·INT05/11A·FC 26/11H·OLY09/12H·CLU20/01A·ARS28/01A·ATY18/07A·OMO22/07
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.171.561.001.141.36
vs Stronger (10)0.701.900.251.501.002.17
vs Similar (13)1.231.001.431.141.000.83
vs Weaker (7)2.570.432.800.402.000.50
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OrdabasyOrdabasy

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-722D11D23L12L21W01L12L71W22D31WH·ATY03/08A·KAI10/08H·FK 17/08A·ULY24/08H·ZHE13/09A·FK 24/09A·YEL28/09H·OKZ19/10A·AKT26/10H·YEL19/07
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.171.750.811.291.57
vs Stronger (4)1.751.252.001.001.002.00
vs Similar (14)1.641.361.710.861.571.86
vs Weaker (12)1.330.921.670.671.001.17
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.8%
Under 1.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.0%
Under 2.5
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.0%
Under 3.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.6%
No
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
1-0
10.3%
2-1 ✓
9.6%
2-0
9.6%
0-0
8.1%
1-2
5.8%
0-1
5.8%
3-1
5.4%
Kairat Almaty goals ↓
Ordabasy goals →
01234
08.1%5.8%3.5%1.2%0.3%
110%13%5.8%2.0%0.5%
29.6%9.6%4.9%1.6%0.4%
35.3%5.4%2.7%0.9%0.2%
42.2%2.2%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kairat Almaty goals (down), columns = Ordabasy goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kairat Almaty
2.27
FC Astana
2.19
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.08
Yelimay Semey
1.85
Aktobe
1.65
Zhenys
1.38
Ordabasy
1.35
Irtysh
1.33
Kaspiy
1.32
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.27
Okzhetpes
1.23
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.04
Zhetysu
0.92
Ulytau
0.88
Kaisar
0.85
Atyrau
0.73
Kairat Almaty is 0.92 points better than Ordabasy in terms of average points per game (2.27 vs 1.35).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Astana
2.54
Kairat Almaty
2.04
Yelimay Semey
1.81
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.73
Aktobe
1.50
Ordabasy
1.42
Zhenys
1.42
Okzhetpes
1.35
Irtysh
1.33
Kaspiy
1.32
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.27
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.96
Kaisar
0.92
Atyrau
0.85
Zhetysu
0.81
Ulytau
0.77
Kairat Almaty is 0.62 goals better than Ordabasy in terms of goals scored per game (2.04 vs 1.42).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kairat Almaty
0.73
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.96
Ordabasy
1.08
Aktobe
1.12
FC Astana
1.15
Zhenys
1.15
Yelimay Semey
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.23
Irtysh
1.39
Kaspiy
1.41
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.46
Zhetysu
1.58
Ulytau
1.58
Kaisar
1.62
Atyrau
1.73
Okzhetpes
1.73
Kairat Almaty is 0.35 goals better than Ordabasy in terms of goals conceded per game (0.73 vs 1.08).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty

For 2.5 · Against 7.6 · Total 10.1

🚩 Corners

180111318539643638573151149512109111218A·ARSH·CLUH·OLYA·FC A·INTH·PAFH·REAA·SPOH·CELA·CEL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.4

🟨 Cards

60112124211322241322236252615A·ARSH·CLUH·OLYA·FC A·INTH·PAFH·REAA·SPOH·CELA·CEL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 13.1 · Total 23.7

⚠️ Fouls

310101491212141019169119691114121991224212629252015253121A·ARSH·CLUH·OLYA·FC A·INTH·PAFH·REAA·SPOH·CELA·CEL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

OrdabasyOrdabasy

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.28.811.30.90.51.226.322.629.3
vs Stronger (10)10.910.011.33.81.55.327.624.029.3
vs Similar (21)7.07.0-0.30.60.020.520.5-
vs Weaker (19)---0.00.00.0---
% over line64%40%83%10%4%15%64%40%83%
% under line36%60%17%90%96%85%36%60%17%
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OrdabasyOrdabasy

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (4)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (25)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (21)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.3
Aktobe
9.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.3
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.0
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.1
Ordabasy
30.0
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.3
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.572.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FTK (21)
€11m
ORD (22)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (22)
€8m
FA (19)
€8m
Kairat Almaty's squad is €2m less valuable than Ordabasy's (€8m vs €10m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
FTK (6)
€4m
KA (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (6)
€1m
Kairat Almaty and Ordabasy have a similar attack value (both €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FTK (5)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
Kairat Almaty and Ordabasy have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (10)
€4m
FA (10)
€4m
FTK (10)
€4m
KA (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
Kairat Almaty's defence is €1m less valuable than Ordabasy's (€3m vs €4m).

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Kairat Almaty vs Ordabasy · H/A from KA
DateH/AGameScore
29/06/25AOrdabasy Vs KA0-1
08/03/25HKA Vs Ordabasy4-0
02/11/24HKA Vs Ordabasy2-1
31/03/24AOrdabasy Vs KA1-2
20/08/23AOrdabasy Vs KA1-0
23/04/23HKA Vs Ordabasy2-2
15/09/22HKA Vs Ordabasy1-2
26/04/22AOrdabasy Vs KA2-1

Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/07/26AOmonia Nicosia Vs KA1-0
18/07/26AAtyrau Vs KA1-3
28/01/26AArsenal Vs KA3-2
20/01/26HKA Vs Club Brugge KV1-4
09/12/25HKA Vs Olympiakos Piraeus0-1
26/11/25AFC Copenhagen Vs KA3-2
05/11/25AInter Vs KA2-1
26/10/25HKA Vs FC Astana1-1
21/10/25HKA Vs Pafos0-0
17/10/25AKyzyl-Zhar Vs KA0-1

OrdabasyOrdabasy

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/07/26HORD Vs Yelimay Semey3-1
26/10/25AAktobe Vs ORD2-2
19/10/25HORD Vs Okzhetpes7-1
28/09/25AYelimay Semey Vs ORD2-1
24/09/25AFK Tobol Kostanay Vs ORD1-0
13/09/25HORD Vs Zhenys2-1
24/08/25AUlytau Vs ORD2-1
17/08/25HORD Vs FK Tobol Kostanay2-3
10/08/25AKaisar Vs ORD1-1
03/08/25HORD Vs Atyrau2-2

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL1.80
HomeWDDLL2.04
AwayLLLWL1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%62%46%
AVG goals2.682.752.62
Over 1.5 %66%67%65%
Over 2.5 %54%54%54%
Over 3.5 %34%38%31%
Scored1.641.881.42
Conceded1.040.881.19
BTTS50%38%62%
Clean Sheet38%54%23%
Corners10.188.8011.33
Cards4.092.605.33
Ordabasy
Ordabasy
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDW1.38
HomeDLWWW1.72
AwayDLLLD1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%48%28%
AVG goals2.582.642.52
Over 1.5 %60%60%60%
Over 2.5 %48%44%52%
Over 3.5 %28%28%28%
Scored1.401.641.16
Conceded1.181.001.36
BTTS52%52%52%
Clean Sheet28%36%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1OrdabasyOrdabasy512
80%
2.4
134+9
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3342.60.8
-
2FC AstanaFC Astana410
75%
2.5
93+6
3.0
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
1242.20.8
-
3AktobeAktobe510
60%
2.0
108+2
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
5232.01.6
-
4Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty39
100%
3.0
83+5
3.7
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3232.71.0
-
5Kyzyl-ZharKyzyl-Zhar48
50%
2.0
85+3
3.2
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
-
6OkzhetpesOkzhetpes46
50%
1.5
85+3
3.2
100%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
-
7FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay36
67%
2.0
32+1
1.7
67%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
4341.00.7
-
8KaspiyKaspiy56
20%
1.2
99+0
3.6
100%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Yelimay SemeyYelimay Semey56
20%
1.2
77+0
2.8
80%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
10IrtyshIrtysh46
50%
1.5
68-2
3.5
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.0
-
11ZhenysZhenys34
33%
1.3
64+2
3.3
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.3
-
12KaisarKaisar32
0%
0.7
34-1
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
13AtyrauAtyrau52
0%
0.4
38-5
2.2
80%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.6
-
14UlytauUlytau41
0%
0.2
38-5
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.0
-
15ZhetysuZhetysu41
0%
0.2
311-8
3.5
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.8
-
16Altay (Kazakhstan)Altay (Kazakhstan)51
0%
0.2
717-10
4.8
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.43.4
-
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →

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