Kairat Almaty is the clear favourite to win against Ulytau, with a 68% chance of victory at home. The model's high rating is due in part to Ulytau's struggles on the road, where they tend to concede more goals to stronger opponents.
Kairat Almaty has a strong home record, scoring an average of 2.5 goals per match and conceding just 0.5. In contrast, Ulytau's away form is concerning, with an average of just 0.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a 2-0 scoreline as the most likely outcome, with a 13.9% probability. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, and the most likely total is 2 goals.
The model's selection is Home win, with Over 1.5 goals and Under 3.5 goals as its other picks, both with high probabilities of 75.4% and 72.2% respectively. Ulytau's struggles on the road make a home win for Kairat Almaty a likely outcome, with a 68% chance of victory. The home win percentage is 68%, the draw percentage is 22%, and the away win percentage is 10%.
Results analysis
The home team, Kairat Almaty, secured a 3-1 win over Ulytau, extending their recent form storyline of coming off a win. The model's call of a home win was correct, with a pre-match probability of 68%. The model's selection of Kairat Almaty to win was the favourite, as expected. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 75.4%, while the selection of Under 3.5 goals missed, with a probability of 72.2%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kairat Almaty win✓ Hit
67.9%
Avg Implied 68.1% · @ 1.33
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.38
10Bet
1.35
Dafabet
1.35
William Hil
1.33
Draw✗ Miss
21.6%
Avg Implied 19.8% · @ 4.58
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.92
Unibet
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Pinnacle
4.68
10Bet
4.60
Ulytau win✗ Miss
10.4%
Avg Implied 12.1% · @ 7.48
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
9.15
Unibet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.40
Betfair
8.00
888Sport
7.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kairat Almaty
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.23
1.31
1.06
1.29
1.43
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
2.09
0.40
2.00
1.00
2.17
vs Similar (12)
1.17
0.75
1.25
0.75
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (7)
2.43
0.71
3.00
0.33
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulytau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ulytau
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.63
1.00
1.88
0.57
1.36
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
1.93
1.00
2.00
0.20
1.80
vs Similar (16)
0.88
1.38
1.00
1.71
0.78
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.4%
@ 1.18-2.8%
Under 1.5
24.6%
@ 4.23+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.19
888Sport
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
888Sport
4.33
Unibet
4.30
1xBet
4.15
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.8%
@ 1.61-7.6%
Under 2.5
50.2%
@ 2.17+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.65
Bet365
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
888Sport
1.62
Under
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Unibet
2.20
1xBet
2.18
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.9%
@ 2.52-8.8%
Under 3.5
72.2%
@ 1.46+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.70
888Sport
2.60
10Bet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.54
1xBet
2.49
Under
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.0%
@ 1.86-6.2%
No
57.0%
@ 1.80+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Unibet
1.90
Betfair
1.87
10Bet
1.83
No
Betfair
1.87
888Sport
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.9%@ 5.94+6.9%
1-0
13.0%@ 6.45+6.5%
1-1
10.2%@ 7.80+4.8%
3-0
9.3%@ 7.94+4.0%
2-1
9.3%@ 7.19+3.5%
0-0
7.9%@ 12.59+4.6%
3-1 ✓
6.2%@ 9.85+1.9%
4-0
4.6%@ 12.76+1.4%
Kairat Almaty goals ↓
Ulytau goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.9%
3.7%
1.5%
0.3%
0.1%
1
13%
10%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
2
14%
9.3%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
3
9.3%
6.2%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
4
4.6%
3.1%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kairat Almaty goals (down), columns = Ulytau goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
Kairat Almaty is 2.20 points better than Ulytau in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
Kairat Almaty is 1.30 goals better than Ulytau in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
Kairat Almaty is 0.85 goals better than Ulytau in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kairat Almaty
For 3.1 · Against 6.5 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 13.3 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ulytau
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Kairat Almaty
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.5
11.3
1.0
0.8
1.2
26.1
22.8
29.3
vs Stronger (11)
10.2
8.5
11.3
3.6
1.6
5.3
26.9
23.2
29.3
vs Similar (22)
11.5
11.5
-
0.5
1.0
0.0
22.0
22.0
-
vs Weaker (17)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
67%
50%
83%
12%
8%
15%
67%
50%
83%
% under line
33%
50%
17%
88%
92%
85%
33%
50%
17%
This opponent (Ulytau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ulytau
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (16)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
10.0
Aktobe
9.5
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.2
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
28.7
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.10
Under
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kairat Almaty
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.88
0.38
0.57
0.71
vs Stronger (11)
0.09
0.91
0.00
0.60
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.33
0.88
0.38
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (7)
1.71
0.29
2.33
0.00
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulytau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ulytau
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.50
0.81
0.36
0.36
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
0.71
0.56
0.89
0.20
0.40
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.50
0.43
0.71
0.44
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kairat Almaty over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kairat Almaty
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.44
0.69
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.18
0.40
1.40
0.83
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.42
0.38
0.38
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.43
0.67
0.33
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulytau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ulytau
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.03
0.50
1.06
0.21
1.00
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
1.21
0.44
1.11
0.00
1.40
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.88
0.57
1.00
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kairat Almaty over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
75.4%
1.18
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.19
888Sport
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.2%
1.46
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
+8.8%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kairat Almaty · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Adilet Sadybekov20%
Olzhas Baibek20%
Ofri Arad14%
Dastan Satpaev14%
Edmilson11%
Jorginho9%
Ricardinho9%
Aleksandr Martynovich0%
Valeriy Gromyko0%
Giorgi Zaria0%
Egor Sorokin0%
Dan Glazer0%
Luís Mata0%
Erkin Tapalov0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Aleksandr Shirobokov0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dastan Satpaev71%
Ofri Arad29%
Jorginho27%
Adilet Sadybekov20%
Valeriy Gromyko18%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy18%
Giorgi Zaria17%
Aleksandr Martynovich12%
Dan Glazer12%
Egor Sorokin9%
Erkin Tapalov9%
Ricardinho9%
Luís Mata0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Aleksandr Shirobokov0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Edmilson0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Olzhas Baibek0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aleksandr Shirobokov25%
Giorgi Zaria17%
Valeriy Gromyko9%
Ricardinho9%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy9%
Aleksandr Martynovich0%
Egor Sorokin0%
Dan Glazer0%
Luís Mata0%
Ofri Arad0%
Erkin Tapalov0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Jorginho0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Edmilson0%
Adilet Sadybekov0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Olzhas Baibek0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Valeriy Gromyko18%
Dastan Satpaev14%
Luís Mata11%
Edmilson11%
Jorginho9%
Aleksandr Martynovich0%
Giorgi Zaria0%
Egor Sorokin0%
Dan Glazer0%
Ofri Arad0%
Erkin Tapalov0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Aleksandr Shirobokov0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Ricardinho0%
Adilet Sadybekov0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy0%
Olzhas Baibek0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Kairat Almaty's squad is €7m more valuable than Ulytau's (€10m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Kairat Almaty's attack is €3m more valuable than Ulytau's (€4m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Kairat Almaty's midfield is €2m more valuable than Ulytau's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Kairat Almaty's defence is €3m more valuable than Ulytau's (€4m vs €1m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
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Ordabasy
FC Astana
Aktobe
Okzhetpes
Kaspiy
FK Tobol Kostanay
Irtysh
Kyzyl-Zhar
Zhenys
Yelimay Semey
Kaisar
Atyrau
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Zhetysu