This Kazakhstan Premier League matchup between Kaisar and Aktobe is finely balanced, with Aktobe coming off a draw against Atyrau and Kaisar drawing their previous match against Yelimay Semey. The model predicts an away win for Aktobe, with a 39% chance of victory. The expected total goals is 2.7, indicating a relatively low-scoring match. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.4% probability. Kaisar has a poor home form, averaging 1 goal scored and conceded per match against stronger opponents. Aktobe, however, has averaged 1.5 goals scored and conceded while playing away against weaker opponents. The model's selection is an Away win. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals with a 76.5% probability, and Under 3.5 goals with a 71.2% probability. The probabilities for the match result are Home win 33%, Draw 28%, and Away win 39%.
Results analysis
The win extends Kaisar's recent struggles, coming off a defeat in their last outing against Aktobe. However, it was Aktobe who ultimately secured the three points, with a 1-2 final score. The model's selection, Aktobe's away win, proved correct, with a pre-match probability of 39%. The model's call was correct, as the actual result matched the predicted outcome. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals also hit, with a pre-match probability of 76.5%, while Under 3.5 goals was also correct, with a pre-match probability of 71.2%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kaisar win✗ Miss
33.3%
Avg Implied 31.5% · @ 2.85
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.02
Pinnacle
2.93
Betfair
2.90
Marathonbet
2.90
William Hil
2.88
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied 29.5% · @ 3.05
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.21
10Bet
3.20
Bet365
3.10
Betano
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Aktobe win✓ Hit
38.5%
Avg Implied 39.0% · @ 2.31
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.45
Betano
2.37
Dafabet
2.37
1xBet
2.37
William Hil
2.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kaisar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.47
1.13
0.93
1.00
2.00
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
1.86
1.00
1.12
0.67
2.83
vs Similar (15)
1.20
1.20
1.29
0.71
1.12
1.62
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.37
1.27
1.00
1.67
1.73
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (14)
1.21
1.36
1.11
1.00
1.40
2.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.79
1.21
1.40
1.00
2.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.5%
@ 1.34+7.9%
Under 1.5
23.5%
@ 2.93-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.35
888Sport
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.10
10Bet
3.00
Pinnacle
3.00
888Sport
3.00
1xBet
2.92
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.8%
@ 2.10+6.6%
Under 2.5
49.2%
@ 1.66-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.16
Bet365
2.15
1xBet
2.11
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.8%
@ 3.73+4.1%
Under 3.5
71.2%
@ 1.22-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.10
Unibet
3.80
888Sport
3.75
Marathonbet
3.70
10Bet
3.70
Under
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.2%
@ 1.80+5.4%
No
43.8%
@ 1.86-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Unibet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
No
Betfair
1.91
William Hil
1.91
888Sport
1.91
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%@ 5.33+5.7%
1-2 ✓
8.6%@ 8.34+3.7%
0-1
8.2%@ 6.41+1.7%
2-1
7.9%@ 9.33+3.5%
0-0
7.9%@ 7.84+2.6%
1-0
7.4%@ 7.20+1.7%
0-2
6.6%@ 9.61+2.3%
2-0
5.6%@ 12.11+2.2%
Kaisar goals ↓
Aktobe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.9%
8.2%
6.6%
3.1%
1.1%
1
7.4%
13%
8.6%
4.0%
1.4%
2
5.6%
7.9%
5.6%
2.6%
0.9%
3
2.4%
3.4%
2.4%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kaisar goals (down), columns = Aktobe goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
Kaisar is 1.27 points worse than Aktobe in terms of average points per game (0.40 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
Kaisar is 0.43 goals worse than Aktobe in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
Kaisar is 0.33 goals worse than Aktobe in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kaisar
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Aktobe
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 2.0 · Against 0.0 · Total 2.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Kaisar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.1
0.1
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
-
-
-
0.2
0.3
0.1
-
-
-
vs Weaker (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
10.0
Aktobe
9.5
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.2
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
28.7
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kaisar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.60
0.27
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
0.71
0.62
0.25
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.60
0.57
0.29
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.43
0.47
0.27
1.00
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.64
0.22
0.33
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.29
0.80
0.20
1.22
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kaisar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.83
0.53
0.67
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.14
0.38
0.88
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.60
0.71
0.43
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.93
0.80
0.73
0.67
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.71
0.89
0.67
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (14)
0.71
0.93
0.60
0.80
0.78
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
76.5%
1.34
Unibet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.35
888Sport
1.33
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.2%
1.22
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Betfair
1.22
-4.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Kaisar's squad is €6m less valuable than Aktobe's (€4m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Kaisar's attack is €3m less valuable than Aktobe's (€2m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Kaisar's midfield is €1m less valuable than Aktobe's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Kaisar's defence is €1m less valuable than Aktobe's (€2m vs €3m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ordabasy
FC Astana
Kairat Almaty
Okzhetpes
Kaspiy
FK Tobol Kostanay
Irtysh
Kyzyl-Zhar
Zhenys
Yelimay Semey
Ulytau
Atyrau
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Zhetysu