The match between Kaisar and Atyrau is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win but leaving room for a draw or an away victory. Kaisar’s home form shows a modest 1.29 goals scored and 0.71 conceded against similar opposition, while Atyrau’s away numbers are 1.25 scored and 0.75 conceded. The average goal expectation sits at 2.3, with the most likely total of two goals occurring 28% of the time. The single score the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14.6% chance.
Probabilities for the match outcome are 36% for a Kaisar win, 31% for a draw and 33% for an Atyrau win. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.2%), Under 5.5 (97.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.9%), Under 4.5 (91.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.6%) and Home under 2.5 goals (88.6%). Kaisar have recently struggled with three losses in a row, while Atyrau come off a defeat, making the outcome uncertain and the model’s pick for a Kaisar win the most likely result.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kaisar win
39.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Atyrau win
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kaisar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.60
1.25
1.19
1.21
2.07
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
1.93
1.12
1.38
0.83
2.67
vs Similar (15)
1.40
1.40
1.38
1.00
1.43
1.86
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atyrau
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.57
0.75
1.50
1.07
1.64
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
2.31
1.00
1.83
0.71
2.71
vs Similar (17)
0.94
1.00
0.60
1.30
1.43
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.9%
Under 1.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.1%
Under 2.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.6%
Under 3.5
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.4%
No
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
9.6%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
8.2%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.3%
0-2
5.6%
Kaisar goals ↓
Atyrau goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
8.2%
5.6%
2.2%
0.6%
1
9.6%
14%
7.5%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.3%
8.5%
5.0%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.3%
3.8%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.1%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kaisar goals (down), columns = Atyrau goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
Kaisar is 0.07 points better than Atyrau in terms of average points per game (0.40 vs 0.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
Kaisar is 0.57 goals better than Atyrau in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 0.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
Kaisar is 0.17 goals worse than Atyrau in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kaisar
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Atyrau
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Kaisar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Atyrau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atyrau
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.4
FK Tobol Kostanay
10.0
Aktobe
9.5
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.4
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
28.7
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kaisar or Draw
68.7%
Avg Implied -
39%
29%
31%
covers Kaisar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kaisar or Atyrau
70.7%
Avg Implied -
39%
29%
31%
covers Kaisar + Atyrau
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Atyrau
60.6%
Avg Implied -
39%
29%
31%
covers Draw + Atyrau
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kaisar over/under 0.5
Over
73.9%
Under
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5
Over
38.9%
Under
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5
Over
15.3%
Under
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 3.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 0.5
Over
69.1%
Under
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 1.5
Over
32.8%
Under
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 2.5
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kaisar, so a minus line means Kaisar give that many goals of a start and Atyrau receive them. At -1, Kaisar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kaisar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kaisar)
Kaisar -2
6.7%
Draw -2
11.9%
Atyrau +2
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kaisar)
Kaisar -1
18.7%
Draw -1
20.7%
Atyrau +1
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kaisar)
Kaisar +1
68.7%
Draw +1
17.9%
Atyrau -1
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kaisar)
Kaisar +2
86.6%
Draw +2
9.1%
Atyrau -2
4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kaisar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.69
0.38
0.57
1.21
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
0.71
0.75
0.25
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.87
0.62
0.50
0.57
1.29
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atyrau
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.17
0.80
0.12
0.56
0.21
1.07
vs Stronger (13)
0.15
1.54
0.17
1.17
0.14
1.86
vs Similar (17)
0.18
0.24
0.10
0.20
0.29
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.3%
Under 0.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
29.6%
Under 1.5
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.7%
Under 2.5
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.6%
Under
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.2%
Under
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kaisar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.56
0.81
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.21
0.38
1.12
0.50
1.33
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.53
0.75
0.50
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atyrau
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.62
0.94
0.86
0.57
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.77
0.83
0.67
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.76
0.50
1.10
1.14
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.5%
Under 0.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.3%
Under 1.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.1%
Under 2.5
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.3%
Under
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.4%
Under
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.3%
Under
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Kaisar and Atyrau have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Kaisar and Atyrau have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Kaisar and Atyrau have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Kaisar and Atyrau have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
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Ordabasy
FC Astana
Kairat Almaty
Aktobe
Okzhetpes
Kaspiy
FK Tobol Kostanay
Irtysh
Kyzyl-Zhar
Zhenys
Yelimay Semey
Ulytau
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Zhetysu