Kaisar are tipped to take the match at home, with a 54% chance of victory, 25% for a draw and 21% for a Zhenys win. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a fairly open game, but the model’s most likely total is two goals, a 24% chance, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, at 11.8%. Kaisar have been scoring an average of two goals per game at home against similarly strong opposition while conceding just one, whereas Zhenys have struggled away, netting only one goal and letting in 2.5 on average. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.1% probability. The home win probability is 54%, the draw 25%, and the away win 21%. The final score of 2-0 confirms the home side’s advantage.
Results analysis
After a string of four defeats, Kaisar’s win extended their poor run, while Zhenys kept their three-game winning streak alive. The final score was 2-0, confirming the model’s home win pick with a 54% probability. The model’s selection was correct. Its over 1.5 goals suggestion, at 80.1%, hit as well. The most likely scoreline was 2-0, matching the result. Kaisar’s home form shows a 2.0 average goals scored and 1.0 conceded, whereas Zhenys’ away average is 1.0 scored and 2.5 conceded. The expected total of 2.9 goals fell short, but the match still produced more than 1.5 goals, validating the model’s predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kaisar win✓ Hit
53.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zhenys win✗ Miss
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kaisar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.40
0.90
2.40
0.80
2.40
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.88
1.12
2.00
1.00
1.75
1.25
vs Weaker (2)
4.50
0.00
4.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhenys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.22
1.56
1.25
1.75
1.20
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
2.00
1.25
1.75
1.00
2.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
-
-
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
22% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.1%
Under 2.5
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.7%
Under 3.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.0%
No
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.8%
2-0 ✓
9.0%
1-0
8.7%
0-0
6.4%
3-1
6.0%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
5.5%
Kaisar goals ↓
Zhenys goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
4.8%
3.2%
1.2%
0.3%
1
8.7%
12%
5.9%
2.2%
0.6%
2
9.0%
9.8%
5.4%
2.0%
0.5%
3
5.5%
6.0%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.5%
2.8%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kaisar goals (down), columns = Zhenys goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Okzhetpes
2.35
Kaisar
2.15
Zhetysu
2.12
Sport Academy Kairat
1.96
Kyran
1.58
Ekibastuz
1.42
Taraz Karatau
1.38
Zhenys
1.35
Yassy Turkistan
1.35
Akademiya Ontustik
1.15
Astana II
1.04
Igilik
0.81
Bulat
0.65
Baykonur
0.27
Kaisar is 0.81 points better than Zhenys in terms of average points per game (2.15 vs 1.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Okzhetpes
3.08
Sport Academy Kairat
2.35
Kaisar
2.31
Zhetysu
2.19
Kyran
2.19
Astana II
1.92
Yassy Turkistan
1.85
Taraz Karatau
1.73
Ekibastuz
1.73
Akademiya Ontustik
1.62
Zhenys
1.54
Bulat
1.38
Igilik
1.04
Baykonur
0.62
Kaisar is 0.77 goals better than Zhenys in terms of goals scored per game (2.31 vs 1.54).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Okzhetpes
0.85
Zhetysu
0.88
Kaisar
1.00
Sport Academy Kairat
1.19
Zhenys
1.38
Kyran
1.65
Taraz Karatau
1.81
Ekibastuz
1.81
Yassy Turkistan
2.08
Akademiya Ontustik
2.31
Astana II
2.38
Igilik
2.69
Baykonur
2.73
Bulat
2.77
Kaisar is 0.38 goals better than Zhenys in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kaisar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
0.40
0.40
1.20
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.50
0.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhenys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.62
0.88
0.50
0.75
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
-
-
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
38% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kaisar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.50
2.00
0.40
1.20
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.25
0.62
1.75
0.50
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhenys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
0.88
0.75
1.00
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
25% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OKZ (23)
€5m
KAI (25)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
ZHE (21)
€3m
Kaisar and Zhenys have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ZHE (8)
€1m
Kaisar and Zhenys have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OKZ (6)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Kaisar and Zhenys have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
OKZ (9)
€1m
Kaisar and Zhenys have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →