Kaisar’s recent slump of four straight losses makes the home win the most likely outcome, with a 49% chance, a draw 29% and a Zhenys win 22%. The match is expected to produce 2.3 goals on average, with the most probable total being 2 goals at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.6% probability. Kaisar, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.25 conceded, while Zhenys, on the road, averages 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 11.5 corners at 85.9%, Under 5.5 cards at 80.5%, Under 3.5 (hit) at 79.0%, Under 10.5 corners at 77.6% and Over 2.5 cards at 74.2%. The final score was 1-0, a home win.
Results analysis
After a string of four losses, Kaisar’s win over Zhenys marked a bright spot in their recent form, while Zhenys continued a three-game winning streak. The model’s pre-match favourite was a home win, with a 49% probability, and this call proved correct as Kaisar edged Zhenys 1-0. The model also predicted the total goals would be 2, the most likely scoreline being 1-1, yet the match settled on a 1-0 result. The single suggested pick, Under 3.5 goals, hit with a 79% probability. All selections were settled, and the model’s predictions largely came through.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kaisar win✓ Hit
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zhenys win✗ Miss
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kaisar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.20
0.88
1.38
1.07
1.00
vs Stronger (15)
0.87
1.33
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.14
vs Similar (15)
1.07
1.07
1.00
1.25
1.14
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhenys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.33
1.69
1.19
1.64
1.50
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
2.29
0.25
2.00
0.67
2.67
vs Similar (20)
1.90
1.10
2.20
1.00
1.60
1.20
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
0.67
2.00
0.50
5.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.2%
Under 1.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.6%
Under 2.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.0%
Under 3.5
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.4%
No
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0 ✓
12.7%
0-0
10.8%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.3%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
4.9%
Kaisar goals ↓
Zhenys goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.3%
3.8%
1.1%
0.2%
1
13%
14%
5.5%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.0%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
3
4.9%
4.4%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.8%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kaisar goals (down), columns = Zhenys goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
1.96
FC Astana
1.92
Aktobe
1.79
Ordabasy
1.75
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.62
Yelimay Semey
1.54
Atyrau
1.46
Kaisar
1.42
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.21
Zhenys
1.00
Zhetysu
0.96
Turan Turkistan
0.83
Shakhter Karagandy
0.42
Kaisar is 0.42 points better than Zhenys in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Astana
1.62
Kairat Almaty
1.62
Aktobe
1.62
Ordabasy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.46
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.38
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.21
Atyrau
1.17
Kaisar
1.17
Zhenys
0.75
Zhetysu
0.71
Turan Turkistan
0.67
Shakhter Karagandy
0.50
Kaisar is 0.42 goals better than Zhenys in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Astana
0.79
Atyrau
0.83
Kairat Almaty
0.88
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.96
Ordabasy
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.08
Aktobe
1.08
Kaisar
1.21
Yelimay Semey
1.33
Zhenys
1.33
Zhetysu
1.38
Turan Turkistan
1.62
Shakhter Karagandy
1.88
Kaisar is 0.12 goals better than Zhenys in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kaisar
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 2.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Zhenys
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Kaisar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.2
0.0
0.4
-
-
-
vs Stronger (15)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
-
-
-
0.3
0.0
0.6
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
2%
0%
4%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
98%
100%
96%
-
-
-
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhenys
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (35)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kairat Almaty
11.0
Shakhter Karagandy
11.0
Aktobe
9.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.4
FC Astana
8.9
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
Aktobe
5.7
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.4
Ordabasy
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
3.8
FC Astana
3.5
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Shakhter Karagandy
2.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.9
Ordabasy
30.0
Aktobe
27.0
FC Astana
25.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
33.2%
Under 9.5
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.0%
Under 3.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kaisar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.43
0.19
0.56
0.43
0.29
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
0.40
0.00
0.50
0.57
0.29
vs Similar (15)
0.33
0.47
0.38
0.62
0.29
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhenys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.81
0.44
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.00
0.00
0.75
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.45
1.10
0.30
0.70
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kaisar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.69
0.81
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
0.93
0.75
1.00
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.60
0.62
0.62
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhenys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.77
0.88
0.75
0.93
0.79
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.29
0.25
1.25
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (20)
1.00
0.65
1.10
0.70
0.90
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 11.5 corners
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
ZHE (21)
€3m
Kaisar and Zhenys have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ZHE (8)
€1m
Kaisar and Zhenys have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Kaisar and Zhenys have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
Kaisar and Zhenys have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →