Kalamata’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding just 0.77 goals per game against teams of similar strength, while their 1.77-goal scoring average suggests a cautious approach. Iraklis 1908, on the road, has a slightly higher average of 1.18 goals scored and 0.82 conceded versus comparable opponents, hinting at a modest offensive edge but still a tight affair. The model projects a 44% chance of a home win, 33% for a draw, and 23% for an away victory, making a Kalamata win the most likely outcome. The expected total goals hover at 1.9, with a 28% probability that exactly two goals will be scored. The single most probable scoreline is a 0-0 stalemate, carrying a 16% chance. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 goals (99.9%), Under 6.5 goals (99.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.3%), Over 19.5 fouls (99.0%), Under 5.5 goals (98.6%), Over 21.5 fouls (97.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.9%), and Away under 2.5 goals (95.9%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kalamata win
44.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
33.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 win
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kalamata
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
0.77
2.12
0.75
1.93
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.79
0.88
1.77
0.77
1.82
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
3.00
0.33
3.67
0.67
2.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis 1908) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iraklis 1908
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.97
1.64
0.57
1.25
1.31
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
5.00
-
-
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (20)
1.25
0.75
1.33
0.67
1.18
0.82
vs Weaker (8)
2.25
0.50
2.20
0.40
2.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalamata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
58.4%
Under 1.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
30.1%
Under 2.5
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
12.8%
Under 3.5
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
37.7%
No
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.0%
1-0
15.8%
1-1
14.2%
2-0
10.0%
0-1
9.8%
2-1
7.5%
1-2
4.9%
0-2
4.2%
Kalamata goals ↓
Iraklis 1908 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
9.8%
4.2%
1.0%
0.2%
1
16%
14%
4.9%
1.2%
0.2%
2
10.0%
7.5%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
3
3.9%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
4
1.1%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kalamata goals (down), columns = Iraklis 1908 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Athens FC
2.29
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.12
PAOK
2.06
Panathinaikos
1.71
Levadiakos
1.61
Aris Thessalonikis
1.44
Atromitos
1.29
Iraklis 1908
1.22
OFI
1.22
Kifisia
1.18
Kalamata
1.03
Volos NFC
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
Kalamata is 0.19 points worse than Iraklis 1908 in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levadiakos
2.00
PAOK
1.88
AEK Athens FC
1.76
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.68
Panathinaikos
1.56
Atromitos
1.39
OFI
1.34
Kifisia
1.18
Iraklis 1908
1.17
Aris Thessalonikis
1.08
Volos NFC
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
Kalamata
0.99
Kalamata is 0.18 goals worse than Iraklis 1908 in terms of goals scored per game (0.99 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.50
AEK Athens FC
0.62
PAOK
0.76
Panathinaikos
1.00
Aris Thessalonikis
1.06
Atromitos
1.18
Asteras Tripolis
1.39
Kifisia
1.42
Panetolikos
1.42
Iraklis 1908
1.48
Levadiakos
1.50
Volos NFC
1.67
OFI
1.72
Kalamata
1.75
Kalamata is 0.27 goals worse than Iraklis 1908 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 1.48).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olympiakos Piraeus
60%
PAOK
60%
AEK Athens FC
57%
Levadiakos
56%
Atromitos
53%
Panathinaikos
53%
Aris Thessalonikis
51%
Kifisia
48%
Volos NFC
46%
Panetolikos
46%
OFI
45%
Asteras Tripolis
45%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kalamata
For 1.7 · Against 6.7 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 22.5 · Total 37.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Iraklis 1908
For 2.0 · Against 3.5 · Total 5.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 20.0 · Against 18.5 · Total 38.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kalamata
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.3
9.0
7.0
0.4
0.4
0.3
37.5
38.0
37.0
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
8.3
9.0
7.0
0.5
0.6
0.5
37.5
38.0
37.0
vs Weaker (11)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
33%
50%
0%
6%
8%
4%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
67%
50%
100%
94%
92%
96%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Iraklis 1908) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iraklis 1908
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
4.7
-
4.7
0.3
0.0
0.5
38.0
-
38.0
vs Stronger (4)
7.0
-
7.0
0.2
-
0.2
36.0
-
36.0
vs Similar (29)
3.5
-
3.5
0.4
0.0
0.9
39.0
-
39.0
vs Weaker (17)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
-
0%
4%
0%
8%
100%
-
100%
% under line
100%
-
100%
96%
100%
92%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (Kalamata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Asteras Tripolis
9.4
Kifisia
9.2
Aris Thessalonikis
9.1
Atromitos
8.9
Olympiakos Piraeus
8.9
PAOK
8.8
OFI
8.8
AEK Athens FC
8.7
Panetolikos
8.6
Panathinaikos
8.6
Levadiakos
8.6
Volos NFC
8.5
Kalamata
8.3
Iraklis 1908
4.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Kifisia
6.6
Kalamata
6.3
Levadiakos
5.6
Volos NFC
5.5
Panetolikos
5.5
Asteras Tripolis
5.5
AEK Athens FC
5.4
OFI
5.3
Aris Thessalonikis
5.2
Panathinaikos
5.1
Atromitos
4.9
Iraklis 1908
4.7
PAOK
4.6
Olympiakos Piraeus
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Iraklis 1908
38.0
Kalamata
37.5
Kifisia
32.3
Atromitos
30.8
Levadiakos
30.6
Volos NFC
30.5
AEK Athens FC
29.3
OFI
28.8
Aris Thessalonikis
28.7
Panathinaikos
28.2
Asteras Tripolis
27.8
Panetolikos
27.1
PAOK
25.2
Olympiakos Piraeus
25.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
31.9%
Under 9.5
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
80.4%
Under 3.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
97.3%
Under 21.5
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kalamata or Draw
77.5%
Avg Implied -
44%
33%
23%
covers Kalamata + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kalamata or Iraklis 1908
66.7%
Avg Implied -
44%
33%
23%
covers Kalamata + Iraklis 1908
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Iraklis 1908
55.8%
Avg Implied -
44%
33%
23%
covers Draw + Iraklis 1908
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kalamata over/under 0.5
Over
68.7%
Under
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalamata over/under 1.5
Over
32.4%
Under
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalamata over/under 2.5
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalamata over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 0.5
Over
52.9%
Under
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 1.5
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 2.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kalamata, so a minus line means Kalamata give that many goals of a start and Iraklis 1908 receive them. At -1, Kalamata must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kalamata win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kalamata)
Kalamata -2
6.5%
Draw -2
13.2%
Iraklis 1908 +2
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kalamata)
Kalamata -1
19.7%
Draw -1
24.5%
Iraklis 1908 +1
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kalamata)
Kalamata +1
77.5%
Draw +1
15.4%
Iraklis 1908 -1
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kalamata)
Kalamata +2
92.9%
Draw +2
5.5%
Iraklis 1908 -2
1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kalamata
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.20
1.06
0.12
1.07
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.21
0.77
0.08
1.00
0.36
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
0.17
2.33
0.33
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis 1908) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iraklis 1908
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.79
0.43
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.40
0.78
0.56
0.55
0.27
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.12
0.80
0.20
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalamata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kalamata over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalamata over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalamata over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kalamata
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.06
0.62
0.86
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.92
0.67
1.00
0.69
0.82
0.64
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.17
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis 1908) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iraklis 1908
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.47
0.86
0.14
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.35
0.56
0.11
0.64
0.55
vs Weaker (8)
1.50
0.38
1.40
0.20
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalamata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kalamata over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalamata over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalamata over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (29)
€175m
PAN (34)
€109m
AAF (26)
€85m
PAO (32)
€82m
AT (27)
€41m
OFI (24)
€18m
LEV (24)
€16m
PAN (27)
€13m
AT (31)
€13m
ATR (21)
€12m
KAL (28)
€11m
VN (25)
€10m
KIF (27)
€10m
I1 (25)
€9m
Kalamata's squad is €2m more valuable than Iraklis 1908's (€11m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (12)
€84m
PAN (13)
€46m
AAF (11)
€44m
PAO (11)
€30m
AT (13)
€22m
PAN (11)
€7m
OFI (6)
€6m
LEV (11)
€5m
AT (11)
€5m
KIF (10)
€4m
KAL (8)
€4m
VN (8)
€4m
ATR (7)
€3m
I1 (6)
€2m
Kalamata's attack is €2m more valuable than Iraklis 1908's (€4m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€47m
PAO (7)
€28m
PAN (8)
€26m
AAF (5)
€16m
AT (5)
€7m
LEV (4)
€5m
OFI (5)
€3m
I1 (7)
€3m
AT (4)
€2m
ATR (3)
€2m
KAL (6)
€2m
PAN (5)
€2m
KIF (6)
€2m
VN (5)
€2m
Kalamata and Iraklis 1908 have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (11)
€44m
PAN (13)
€38m
AAF (10)
€26m
PAO (14)
€24m
AT (9)
€12m
OFI (13)
€8m
ATR (11)
€6m
AT (16)
€6m
VN (12)
€5m
LEV (9)
€5m
KAL (14)
€5m
KIF (11)
€4m
I1 (12)
€4m
PAN (11)
€3m
Kalamata and Iraklis 1908 have a similar defence value (both €5m).
Greece: Super League 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →