Kalju Nomme vs Flora Tallinn Result & Analysis

Kalju Nomme face Flora Tallinn, and the model favours an away win. The odds lean heavily toward Flora, with a 50% chance of victory, 26% for a draw, and 24% for a Kalju win. The expected total of 2.9 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring affair, yet the most likely total is two goals, a 24% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.2% chance. Kalju, playing at home against a similarly-strength opponent, averages 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Flora, on the road, nets 1.75 and concedes 1.0 against similar teams. Recent form adds context: Kalju’s last five were LLWWW, after two straight defeats, and they fell 2-3 to FC Levadia Tallinn; Flora’s last five were LLWLL, also after two defeats, and they lost 1-2 to Paide. The model’s single suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, a 79.5% probability.

Kalju Nomme’s win over Flora Tallinn was a shock that left the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick for an away win at 50%, on the back foot. The final score of 1-0 gave Kalju a home victory, a result that the model had not anticipated. The model’s prediction was therefore wrong. The only other selection the model made was Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.5% probability, but the match produced just one goal, so that pick missed. Kalju’s recent form, noted as “after 2 straight defeats” with a last-five record of LLWWW, extended their run, while Flora, also after two defeats, finished LLWLL. The outcome was a clear upset.