Kalju Nomme face Flora Tallinn in a match the model favours for an away win, with a 45% chance of Flora triumphing. The overall shape looks balanced, with a 25% home win probability, a 29% draw likelihood, and a 45% away win chance. Expect about 2.4 goals in total, centring on a 2-goal outcome that carries a 27% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 13.9% chance.
Kalju, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.33 conceded. Flora, on the road, scores 0.83 and concedes 1.17 against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 3.5, with a 77.7% probability of hitting, and Over 1.5, with a 70.6% chance of missing. These picks reflect the expected modest goal tally. The match is poised to be a tight contest, with the away side holding a slight edge in the odds.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Flora Tallinn, fell short in a 0-0 draw that stunned the pundits. Kalju Nomme’s recent run of two straight defeats had left them in a fragile spot, yet they held firm at home, extending a modest streak of wins. The model had tipped an away win with a 45% probability, but the verdict was wrong. The model’s other selections performed unevenly: the Under 3.5 goal pick hit with a 77.7% chance, while the Over 1.5 goal selection missed despite a 70.6% probability. The final score of 0-0 matched the most likely 1-1 outcome, but the match finished in a stalemate, leaving the model’s favourite disappointed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kalju Nomme win✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn win✗ Miss
45.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kalju Nomme
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.03
1.57
0.86
1.00
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.56
1.67
1.00
1.33
0.33
1.83
vs Weaker (21)
1.57
0.76
1.73
0.73
1.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
0.87
2.06
1.00
1.79
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.83
1.42
0.83
1.67
0.83
1.17
vs Weaker (18)
2.67
0.50
2.80
0.60
2.50
0.38
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.6%
Under 1.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.2%
Under 2.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.3%
Under 3.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.9%
No
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-1
11.5%
0-0 ✓
10.3%
0-2
9.0%
1-2
8.9%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
6.3%
2-2
4.4%
Kalju Nomme goals ↓
Flora Tallinn goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
11%
9.0%
4.3%
1.5%
1
7.7%
14%
8.9%
4.2%
1.5%
2
4.4%
6.3%
4.4%
2.1%
0.7%
3
1.5%
2.1%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kalju Nomme goals (down), columns = Flora Tallinn goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.19
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.14
Paide
1.47
Tallinna Kalev
1.47
Kalju Nomme
1.36
Vaprus
1.33
Kuressaare
1.19
Trans Narva
1.06
Tammeka
0.82
Laagri
0.64
Viimsi
0.50
Kalju Nomme is 0.83 points worse than Flora Tallinn in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 2.19).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.06
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.86
Paide
1.39
Kalju Nomme
1.39
Tallinna Kalev
1.36
Vaprus
1.11
Tammeka
1.03
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
0.89
Laagri
0.75
Viimsi
0.50
Kalju Nomme is 0.67 goals worse than Flora Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 2.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.67
Paide
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
1.14
Kalju Nomme
1.17
Vaprus
1.19
Kuressaare
1.67
Laagri
1.69
Tammeka
1.74
Trans Narva
1.78
Viimsi
3.00
Kalju Nomme is 0.50 goals worse than Flora Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kalju Nomme
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.33
0.93
0.07
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.78
0.67
0.00
0.17
1.17
vs Weaker (21)
0.86
0.14
1.00
0.09
0.70
0.20
Clean sheet %
77% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.43
0.94
0.50
1.00
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.50
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (18)
1.39
0.39
1.30
0.40
1.50
0.38
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kalju Nomme
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.64
0.79
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.22
0.89
0.33
1.33
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (21)
0.71
0.62
0.73
0.64
0.70
0.60
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.43
1.12
0.50
0.79
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.92
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (18)
1.28
0.11
1.50
0.20
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Kalju Nomme's squad is €1m more valuable than Flora Tallinn's (€4m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Kalju Nomme and Flora Tallinn have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Kalju Nomme and Flora Tallinn have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Kalju Nomme and Flora Tallinn have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Levadia Tallinn
Paide
Tallinna Kalev
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
Tammeka
Laagri
Viimsi